687
FXUS64 KLUB 091705
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1205 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

 - Elevated fire danger possible Saturday afternoon for areas on
   the Caprock and western portions off the Caprock.

 - A cold front early in the morning will give way to cooler
   temperatures and windy conditions Sunday.

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions expected
   everyday beginning Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Saturday will be a hot and breezy one. To start off the day, a
positively tilted upper trough over much of Texas will exit away
from the region giving way to mostly zonal flow aloft. On the
surface, the front that pushed through the region Friday evening has
exited to the south of the CWA and winds have begun to decrease.
Northeasterly surface flow will continue to diminish overnight
through early Saturday morning before shifting to the south. An
upper shortwave passing over the Rockies will trigger the
development of a lee surface low over northern NM/southern CO
resulting in winds shifting to the southwest to west and ramping up
during the afternoon. Breezy winds with speeds up to 25 mph are
expected across the Caprock with gusts up to 30 mph, especially
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Increasing thicknesses
and west to southwesterly surface flow will aide in warming
temperatures to the 90s by late Saturday afternoon. Unseasonably
warm temperatures, breezy southwesterly winds, and RH values
reaching as low as 8 percent will bring elevated fire danger across
the Caprock. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for
areas on the Caprock and western portions off the Caprock from 1 PM
Saturday until 8 PM Saturday. Upper forcing from the passing
shortwave and moderate mid-level moisture, showers and thunderstorms
will be possible beginning late Saturday afternoon through the
evening. However, all storms are expected to remain to the east of
the CWA where better forcing is expected. There is a vary small
chance for an isolated storm over the far southeastern Texas
Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains, however confidence is low.
Winds will gradually weaken after sunset as the pressure gradient
weakens. Tonight will be unseasonably warm with partly cloudy skies
inhibiting radiational cooling. Lows will range from lower 50s
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 60s across the
Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The long term forecast will start off with a cool down for Sunday.
The surface low mentioned in the short term discussion will shift to
the east pulling a cold front southward through the region very late
Saturday through early Sunday. Following the FROPA, breezy north to
northeasterly winds will prevail through much of the day Sunday. CAA
behind the front will cool temperatures considerably compared to
Saturday with highs in the upper 70s across the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle to upper 80s across the southern Rolling Plains.
Upper forcing from a passing broad, low amplitude trough and
sufficient mid-level moisture with PWATS just under 1.25 inches will
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Sunday
morning for areas off the Caprock and will continue through the
evening. The rest of the week will be a hot one. Upper ridging will
build over western CONUS early next week and is expected to prevail
through the rest of the work week. Height and thickness increases
due to the upper ridging as well as south to southwesterly surface
flow every afternoon will give way to unseasonably warm
temperatures. High temperatures beginning Tuesday are expected to be
in the 90s with some areas seeing triple digits. At the same time,
subsidence from the upper ridging will keep precipitation chances
near zero. Elevated to critical fire danger will be possible with
the dry conditions, hot temperatures and moderate to breezy winds
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR will continue this afternoon and into tonight at KCDS, KLBB,
and KPVW, with a southwesterly breeze. There is a slim chance for
TSTMs to affect KCDS this afternoon, but confidence is too low to
warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Winds will subside by
sunset at all terminals, with winds shifting to the north late
Sunday morning following a strong cold front. MVFR CIGs will trail
the front, with gusts up to 30-35 kt forecast. A better potential
for TSTMs will accompany the front at KCDS Sunday morning. MVFR
CIGs last beyond the scope of this TAF period at all terminals.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09