270
FXUS64 KLUB 102312
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

 - Warm temperatures continue Saturday but with an increase in wind
   speeds.

 - Trending cooler with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
   Monday and Tuesday.

 - Temperatures trend warmer to end next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Upper level ridging will remain overhead tonight, but during the
day Saturday the ridge will begin to breakdown on the western
flank as energy ahead of an upper level trough moving onto the
coast of the Pacific Northwest ejects over the High Plains. While
most of this energy will eject well to the north of the forecast
area, pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies ahead of this
trough will result in increasing southerly winds across the
forecast area, especially on across areas on the Caprock. The
result will be breezy afternoon conditions with low level warm
advection offsetting height/thickness decreases and a continuation
of well above normal temperatures. This occurs after another
quiet and mild night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Further backing of the aloft to southwesterly will occur Sunday into
Monday as a sharp shortwave trough digs into the western CONUS. This
will result in a pattern that is quite similar to that seen earlier
this week. It will be one that bring shower and thunderstorm chances
back to the forecast area in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe,
focusing on western zones, and peaking on Monday. It will also bring
a weak cold front to the forecast area, decreased heights and
thicknesses, and increased cloud cover resulting in another brief
period of cooler temperatures closer to seasonal normals. This is
very much in line with the previous forecast with no significant
changes noted in the NBM. However, just like this week, the cooldown
will brief as further amplification of the flow on the Pacific Coast
will allow the upper ridge to build back to the west, warming our
temperatures once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR is expected through the TAF period with breezy southerly winds
on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01