131
FXUS64 KLUB 031047
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
547 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

 - Very warm temperatures will continue through the next several
   days, and will reach near record highs on Thursday.

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly along and west of
   I-27 on Thursday, with more isolated storms possible Friday and
   Saturday near the TX/NM state line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The upper level pattern will remain relatively stagnant over the
next 24 hours with our area positioned between broad upper ridging
centered over the southeast CONUS and an upper low in the PacNW
vicinity. With the western edge of the ridge axis still in place
overhead, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue across West
TX with Thursday afternoon set to bring another round of high
temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Portions of the SE TX
Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains are expected to range from
105F to 108F, and a Heat Advisory has therefore been issued for
those locations. Record highs for the day (101 at Lubbock and 106
at Childress) will be within reach, but should remain below the
all time warmest temperatures on record for September.

Another round of high-based thunderstorms is also expected Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening given the continued presence of a
relatively healthy plume of midlevel moisture overhead and strong
diurnal heating. Showers and storms may end up a bit farther east
compared to Wednesday, but will still favor areas along and west of
the I-27 corridor. Storm coverage will be scattered at best given
poorly focused forcing for ascent, with individual cells remaining
weak and generally short-lived. As such, the chance for measurable
rain at any given location on the Caprock is less than 30%, but
the strongest cells could produce brief gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

High temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 90s and low
100s Friday through the weekend, but storm chances will generally
trend downward as the upper level ridge repositions farther west and
pushes the best moisture back into NM. Still, a few isolated
diurnally driven storms may still occur Friday and Saturday
afternoon/evening especially near the TX/NM state line.
Confidence is fairly high that warmer than normal temperatures
will continue into at least early next week with storm chances
remaining minimal. Model spread then increases slightly thereafter
with differences in the evolution of the upper ridge. A majority
of solutions currently favor a continuation of hot and dry
weather, with a subset of ensemble members indicating a return of
slightly better moisture and low precipitation chances by the
middle of next week. The drier outcome is currently favored with
unseasonably warm temperatures still looking likely to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR and light winds are expected to persist. There remains a
slight chance of thunderstorms this evening at KLBB and KPVW,
however confidence is still too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...19