220
FXUS64 KLUB 172318
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Scattered showers and storms persist through Saturday (20-40%
  chance). Severe storms are not expected, but storms could
  produce gusty winds Saturday evening.

- Hot and dry conditions return next week, with highs generally in
  the upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A slow-moving upper low remains over the region, with satellite
imagery suggesting it was centered in the vicinity of the NM/TX
border to the SW of Lubbock as of late Fri morning. Regional
radar shows that much of the precip has been focused south/east
of the low this morning, with heavy rainfall across NWS San
Angelo`s CWA. Additional widely scattered showers have developed
west of the upper low, moving south across eastern NM. In our
forecast area, a band of weak showers was lifting north at
1130am/1630z. IR satellite shows cloud tops have warmed
considerably over the course of the morning, consistent with
weakening precip intensity/coverage. CAMs suggest sparse precip
coverage this afternoon/evening, but have the best chances focused
across the southern half of the forecast area (20-40%).

Models depict an eastward wobble of the upper low overnight,
indicating potential for the aforementioned precip axis on the
western side of the low to shift into our area. This is captured
by the CAMs, which indicate scattered showers across the western
half of the CWA overnight into Sat AM (20-30%).

The influence of that upper low keeps the pattern unsettled into
Sat, with additional scattered precip development possible area-
wide through Sat evening (20-30%). The potential for organized
severe storms is low owing to weak deep layer shear and lackluster
mid- level lapse rates, but during peak heating the forecast
soundings depict DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, which could support
sporadic gusty winds with any storms that do form. Temps warm
slightly on Sat, with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The upper low is nudged southwest on Sun, and while a sporadic
shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out, the chances are
lower (10%) compared to Saturday. An upper ridge is progged to
shift south into early next week, with ensemble guidance keeping it
centered over the south- central Plains for much of next week.
The ensemble mean 500mb heights suggest values around 595 dam,
which is near the max of the observed sounding climatology from
KAMA and KMAF. Subsidence beneath this anomalous ridge should keep
precip at bay, with the NBM dry area- wide Monday through at
least Friday (less than 10% chance of precip each day).

The main forecast focus therefore becomes the temps, and the most
recent NBM has trended a degree or two warmer compared to
previous forecasts. This trend seems reasonable given the
anomalous nature of the upper ridge. Highs approach 100F on the
Caprock by Tues/Wed, with low 100s off the Caprock. Similar
values persist during the latter half of the work week. The
probability of reaching heat advisory criteria (105F) off the
Caprock is 20-50% each day from Tues onward, so while the
expectation is that conditions remain below advisory criteria,
there is at least some potential that heat headlines will be
needed next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. However, some
MVFR clouds linger near all three terminals through the rest of
the evening. Moderate southerly winds will prevail overnight,
however are expected to pick up Saturday afternoon. There is a
small chance for rain showers near KLBB early Saturday morning,
however am not confident in showers impacting the terminal,
therefore left out of TAF.

As a reminder, KLBB ASOS will be offline between 01-13z for
maintenance. The contract weather observers on site should be
able to supplement the observations during the outage, maintaining
regular METAR issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...10