842
FXUS64 KLUB 221739
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

 - Hot temperatures will continue to dominate the region over the
   next 7 day, with triple digit highs for many locations.

 - Heat Advisory level temperatures (highs 105 degrees or higher)
   are likely off the Caprock most days.

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and
   evening, and perhaps again on Saturday. Damaging winds and
   heavy downpours will accompany the strongest storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The heat goes on as an upper ridge remains centered over the
southern High Plains. The ridge will flatten a bit and build across
the Four Corners over the next 24 hours as a shortwave traverses the
northern periphery of the ridge and emerges into the central High
Plains. Despite the adjustment, the net affect locally will be
insignificant as the upper high will continue to exert itself over
West Texas. The result will be another warm night and hot day.
Lows tonight will be primarily in the 70s, with spotty low 80s off
the Caprock. This will be followed by widespread triple digit
heat. Highs of 103 to 106 degrees will be common off the Caprock,
where another Heat Advisory will be posted from 1 pm to 9 pm on
Thursday. The Heat Advisory will cover the same area as today`s
advisory, though we`ll also add Garza County since it appears the
portion off the Caprock will top out around 105 degrees, too.
Temperatures won`t be quite as hot on the Caprock, with highs of
100 to 102 expected.

Lastly, there are subtle indications the heat may be sufficient to
generate a rogue high-based storm or two near our far northeast
corner (near Childress) this evening. Overall chances for measurable
precipitation are low, under 10%, but should a storm manage to take
root, strong/severe wind gusts would be a risk given the hot and
deeply mixed boundary layer. A similar setup will follow tomorrow,
and a rogue storm isn`t impossible near and east of the edge of
the Caprock. For now we have maintained sub-mentional PoPs near
and under 10% for both evenings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Unfortunately, the heat will remain the theme through the extended
forecast as the upper level ridge is in no hurry to exit the region.
Initially somewhat elongated from west-to-east late week, the ridge
is forecast to rebuild more squarely over the central and southern
High Plains late this weekend where it will likely linger through
much or all of next week. This will ensure the scorching
temperatures remain entrenched over West Texas, and additional Heat
Advisories are a good likelihood for at least parts of the area
through the extended.

The only hope for any meaningful precipitation and perhaps minor
heat relief will be late Friday into Saturday. This will occur as
the shortwave discussed in the Short Term, exiting via the central
Mississippi River Valley, bends a thinning plume of monsoonal
moisture across the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The
increased moisture aloft, in combination with convergence along a
surface trough and intense heating, will likely trigger scattered
high-based storms across our northwestern/northern zones Friday
evening. The hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will support
severe-caliber winds, while the improved moisture aloft could also
bring a few pockets of heavy rainfall. The increased cloud cover and
deep-layer moisture may knock down temperatures a few degrees on
Saturday. Overall moisture aloft will gradually thin on Saturday,
but could still be sufficient to support a low thunder risk again
Saturday afternoon/evening. Thereafter, with the mid-level
moisture depleted, dry conditions will likely be the rule through
much or all of next week. In addition, temperatures will rebound
from the subtle cooling, with widespread highs in the triple
digits next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period. There is a low chance of
a stray shower or storm near Childress this evening (10-15% chance),
but the expected coverage of this precip was too low to include in
the TAF. Daytime heating will result in a few cumulus clouds around
9-10 kft. Winds will be southeasterly through this evening, then
veer to southwesterly for Thursday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-043-044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...24