259
FXUS64 KLUB 231701
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1101 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

 - Mild and continued dry for the final week of February.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The upper level shortwave trough currently sitting over the Texas
Panhandle will continue to move east through today. A secondary
shortwave trough will pass overhead this afternoon. Light
southwesterly winds will shift to the north to northwest following a
surface trough that is associated with the aforementioned secondary
upper shortwave. Winds will shift back to the southwest as the first
trough moves off and a lee side trough develops tonight. The warming
trend continues today with above normal high temperatures in the 60s
to lower 70s. Seasonal normal low temperatures in the lower 30s are
expected tonight. Otherwise, conditions today will be mild and
sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Few changes were needed to the inherited forecast as models are in
good agreement through the remaining days of February. The story
remains a warm and dry one as we sit under WNW flow with only one
shortwave trough clipping the region by Wednesday complete with a
respectable cold front. Until then, lee troughing over eastern NM
on Monday will be responsible for some breezier and very warm WNW
winds ahead of a weak front dipping south by Monday evening. This
front quickly washes out for Tuesday as winds swing southerly in
response to renewed lee troughing to our west. A second and more
robust FROPA arrives Wednesday morning from an upper trough
splitting over the northern Great Plains. The lesser and slower
segment of this trough reaches our area Wednesday night in NW flow
with not much more than some stray high clouds. Post-frontal
winds on Wednesday continue to shape up quite breezy at around 20
mph and the NBM`s high temps this day are slowly catching up to
the cooler theme portrayed by the GFS, ECM and its ensemble MOS.
Milder weather closes out the end of the week downstream of a weak
rex block along the west coast. We may see some tempering to this
warming by the first day of March as a backdoor front sneaks in
per the GFS and NBM, but this is too distant to dwell on anymore
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR is expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon
over much of the South Plains as WNW winds increase to 15 to 20
mph at times with RH values falling into the teens. Temperatures
will be between 15 and 20 degrees above normal with ERCs in the
70-89th percentile.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01