Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
457 FXUS64 KLUB 032318 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend. - A pattern change is possible during the early to middle portion of next week which may provide a brief period of cooler weather and increased rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Quiet and warm weather will dominate tonight and Saturday as upper ridging remains overhead. Surface lee troughing will keep surface winds out of the south to southeast tonight. The upper low currently over northern California and Nevada will progress eastward across the Rockies tonight before transitioning to a progressive open wave over Colorado and Wyoming late Saturday morning. This will allow the surface pressure gradient across the foothills to tighten creating breezy conditions Saturday afternoon. The upper low/trough will help to partially erode the overhead ridge Saturday which will help to keep afternoon highs cooler than what is expected today by a few degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Upper flow will become southwesterly early Sunday into late Monday as the upper trough over the western CONUS become positively tilted and an upper high builds across the eastern CONUS. A cold front will push southward across the Northern and Central Plains early Monday. The front is progged to move into the northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles before stalling. Models eventually push the front into the FA by late Monday/early Tuesday as upper flow transitions to more zonal in nature. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible along the front but will have minimal upper level assistance. Models then begin to build upper ridging over the region once again by late week. Models differ an amplification and location of the upper ridge/high, the ECMWF keeping the center of the upper high just to our east while the GFS keeps the ridge axis to our west and amplifies the ridge northward into Canada. This will have an impact on any potential precip chances and temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 VFR will prevail through this TAF period. South winds will remain relatively modest this evening and overnight, then increase and become breezy by midday on Saturday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...30