684
FXUS64 KLUB 262007
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
207 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

 - Low-end windy conditions are expected on Wednesday across the
   Caprock, with a cold front moving through during the
   afternoon.

 - Snow flurries and sprinkles are forecast across portions of the
   far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains on Thursday
   morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Breezy southwesterly winds will continue through this afternoon
but will taper off this evening. Winds this evening will veer to
the west as a surface trough moves to the east. Low temperatures
tonight will be well above seasonal normals in the upper 40s to
lower 50s as an approaching upper level shortwave brings breezy
winds and high clouds overnight. The shortwave will move east over
the Central Plains before deamplifying and absorbing into a broad
upper trough bringing zonal flow aloft again. Day time heating
will bring above seasonal normal high temperatures tomorrow in the
60s to 70s and breezy west winds tomorrow afternoon. An upper
level low sitting over western Canada will push a strong cold
front through our region late in the afternoon veering the winds
to the north.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

The cold front will continue to plow through the rest of the area on
Wednesday evening. Strong pressure rises behind the front will
persist through the overnight hours keeping winds elevated. Despite
the stronger winds, temperatures will be much colder due to the cold
air advection in the wake of the front. Surface ridging will settle
over the area after sunrise leading to a decrease in winds. The
other issue will be the potential for very light wintry
precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The column
will saturate from the top down with the lower level moisture
arriving behind the cold front. Frontogenesis around the 750-650mb
layer will bring weak lift within the lower level saturated layer.
However, towards Thursday morning, mid levels of the atmosphere will
begin to dry out leaving a cloud layer mostly warmer than -8C or so.
Air near the surface is expected to wet bulb down close to 0C or
even slightly below 0C for areas on the caprock, especially across
the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Although this activity is primarily expected to be sprinkles and
flurries, some drizzle/freezing drizzle may mix in given the
relatively warm cloud layer. Cold air advection will continue
through the day on Thursday allowing temperatures to struggle to get
out of the 40s area wide. Temperatures will warm on Friday and
Saturday as surface lee troughing develops swinging winds around to
a downsloping component to the southwest. Another weaker cold front
is expected on Saturday which will stunt the brief warmup after
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites. Winds will become
breezy this afternoon around 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to
30 knots before diminishing this evening as they veer to the west.
Winds aloft will increase tonight with LLWS occurring around 500
feet up to 40 knots at all sites through tomorrow morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10