696
FXUS64 KLUB 201106
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - Another hot day today with a few storms possible this afternoon
   and evening on the Caprock.

 - Temperatures cool slightly to values near normal during the
   middle of the week, warming above average again by next
   weekend.

 - Thunderstorm chances return each afternoon and evening from
   Monday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Little change in the overall synoptic pattern compared to this time
yesterday with broad ridging aloft still in place over most of the
Gulf coast states. Water vapor imagery highlights a few weaknesses
along the edge of the ridge along with a pair of compact upper lows
over SoCal and NW Mexico, which will ultimately push the midlevel
monsoonal moisture plume a bit farther east and closer to our area
throughout the course of the day today. The presence of richer
midlevel moisture overhead in addition to the weak confluence
associated with a diffuse surface trough axis over eastern NM is
expected to result in higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms
over the SW TX Panhandle and western portions of the South Plains
this afternoon compared to days past. Even so, the lack of
focused large scale lift and very weak shear magnitudes will keep
this activity fairly isolated and disorganized, but model consensus
nevertheless supports keeping mentionable PoPs in place for most
areas west of I-27 this afternoon through this evening. The severe
weather threat is low overall, but widening surface T/Td spreads
farther west will support a risk for a strong downburst or two. We
expect storms to decrease in coverage after sunset, but a
strengthening low level jet may keep a few showers going through
late evening. Highs will be a few degrees above normal once again
today with temperatures peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s this
afternoon, and a few lower elevation spots in the far SE TX
Panhandle could even see highs near 105 as well. Otherwise,
after any lingering showers dissipate after midnight, tonight
will be very mild with lows mostly in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

At the start of the extended period, the FA will continue to remain
under the influence of an upper level ridge that is expected to
dominate over much of the southern half of the US this weekend. By
Monday afternoon, the H5 ridge will begin to depart to the east,
slightly, as an upper level trough over the PacNW begins to dig
into portions of the western US. In response, flow aloft will
become more southwesterly, which will aid in the return of
monsoonal moisture back into portions of the area. Models suggest
that the plume of moisture will extend along an axis from
southwestern Kansas to El Paso. This moisture plume will likely
remain focused west of the FA, as the western periphery of the
upper level ridge continues to extend over eastern portions of the
FA. Keeping the highest PoPs confined to the Caprock, especially
near the TX/NM state line. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Monday evening, as a perturbation within the flow aloft moves
through. However, moisture return may be limited initially, with
soundings depicting a fairly dry subcloud layer in addition to
drier mid levels, with much of the moisture still expected to
remain to our south ans west at this time. Regardless, there
remains a non zero chance mainly across the southwestern South
Plains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to increase
Tuesday afternoon with moist return flow at the surface aiding in
dewpoints back in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Broad isentropic
ascent around the 315K layer will be fixated across the FA along
with another subtle perturbation within the flow will support
showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms will likely persist through the
overnight period as the LLJ ramps up and storms are able to grow
upscale. These conditions will remain in place through mid-week
with daily chances for evening showers and thunderstorms in place
Monday through Thursday with the best chance being Tuesday evening
through Wednesday morning. PWATs well above seasonal normals
around 1.5" with localized amounts up to 1.75", along with
soundings depicting a deep saturated column of moisture with long-
skinny CAPE profiles. Hinting at the potential for efficient
rainfall rates and locally heavy rainfall with any shower or
thunderstorm that does develop. Therefore WPC has highlighted
areas west of I-27 in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
Monday and Tuesday. Once again, areas with the best chance for
seeing rainfall will be confined to areas west of the I-27
corridor where moisture convergence and instability will likely be
maximized. Cooler temperatures are also expected through mid-
week, thanks to the anticipated precipitation and cloud cover
along with decreased thickness values with the center of the ridge
parked further east. By the end of the week, drier and warmer
conditions will likely return as an upper level ridge amplifies
over much of the Central and Southern Plains, with ensemble
guidance projecting the center of the H5 high pressure system over
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51