511
FXUS64 KLUB 220518
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon
   and evening which could produce strong wind gusts and locally
   heavy downpours.

 - Temperatures cool slightly to values near normal during the
   middle of the week, warming above average again by next
   weekend.

 - Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and Thursday afternoon,
   the severe threat remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

An upper level low is centered over central Texas pulling in
moisture from the Gulf. Monsoon moisture is being advected from
Mexico into New Mexico and Arizona continuing to produce showers
within the inner-mountain west. Another low, coming ashore the PNW
is bringing in a stream of pacific moisture through portions of
Northern California and Idaho. The PNW trough will leave an orphaned
low over northern California. High pressure across the south
eastern US will remain with little movement over the short term
while the central Texas low slowly drifts north into Oklahoma.

The morning and early afternoon hours will remain mostly dry, until
scattered thunderstorms develop initially over the Texas New
Mexico border, moving eastward into our CWA. Widespread severe
storms are not expected, but a storm or two could approach severe
limits with hail and wind gusts being the primary threats.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Slightly wetter and cooler conditions are expected through the
extended forecast, as the persistent upper level ridge make a slight
shift east over the Gulf States while an upper level trough digs
through the PacNW. In turn, we will see upper level flow shift out
of the southwest, aiding in an axis of monsoonal moisture to stream
into the region. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly surface winds
will continue to pump in moisture from the Gulf with dewpoints
progged in the upper 50s and 60s, although these dewpoints are not
nearly as high as what we saw a few weeks ago. Given moist southerly
winds through the low to mid-levels, along with moist isentropic
ascent noted at the 315K level, showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon through Thursday as the upper level ridge
centers itself over the southeastern CONUS, with the western
periphery of the ridge clipping portions of our eastern half of the
CWA. Given the positioning of the ridge still remaining over
portions of the area, the best chance area for any precipitation will
be confined to areas generally along and west of the I-27 corridor,
closer to the better instability and moisture convergence. The
overall severe threat remains low with storms, however, locally
heavy wind gusts will be possible given the inverted-v nature of
profile soundings, with the presence of a dry-sub cloud layer, and
DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. Although models have backed off on
this in recent runs, there is a chance that any convection ongoing
Tuesday evening could persist through the overnight hours Wednesday
as a +30 knot LLJ ramps up, which could allow storms to grow
upscale. If this happens, given PWATs well above seasonal normals
and soundings showing a decent saturated column of moisture present
over the region suggests that storms could be capable of heavy
rainfall at times. In addition to the potential for rainfall,
slightly cooler conditions will be possible, with decreased
thickness values and potential cloud cover helping to limit diurnal
heating. This cool down will be marginal, with temperatures only a
few degrees cooler in the low to mid 90s.

Warmer and drier conditions are expected to return late this week
into the weekend as the upper level trough to our west becomes
absorbed into the main flow, while the upper level ridge amplifies
and moves back overhead. Some ensembles hint at the potential for
the upper high to become centered over the FA by the weekend, which
would lead to increased thickness values and temperatures back in
the upper 90s and triple digits, with little to no precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Convection will continue near LBB through at least 06Z with the
strongest activity remaining west of the terminal. Convection will
be possible near all terminals after 18Z this afternoon. Gusty
winds up to 45 knots and brief heavy rainfall will be the main
threats. VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51