807
FXUS64 KLUB 072317
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot temperatures expected on Sunday with severe storms likely
   late Sunday afternoon and evening with greatest chances in the
   extreme southern Texas Panhandle.

 - Strong to severe storm chances are expected to return Monday
   evening across West Texas.

 - Daily storm chances continue through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A convectively enhanced cold front moved through the area this
morning shifting winds to the northeast. Similar to the previous few
days, we will see little in the way of any upper level support for
convection this afternoon. While we saw neutral height changes
yesterday, today will continue to see slight rises through the rest
of the afternoon and evening. Upper level winds will intensify this
evening bringing some large scale ascent overhead during the
overnight hours but will be too late to affect any potential daytime
convection. Any low level convergence will be limited to areas south
of the Rolling Plains across the Big Country. This is where the cap
will be weakest along with mixed layer instability values around
2500-3500 J/kg. This remnant outflow boundary/cold front is expected
to remain around this area creating this low level convergence for
the rest of the afternoon. Much of the FA will only see broad
upslope easterly flow with a fairly chaotic wind pattern. The
outflow has kept us a few degrees cooler than yesterday which has
and will continue to keep us capped for the rest of today.

Severe storms are likely on Sunday afternoon but especially during
the evening hours. A weak short wave will approach the area within
northwest flow during the afternoon hours initiating convection
on higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and then spread east-
southeast into West Texas. Low level flow will veer back to the
southeast during the daytime substantially increasing low level
moisture. The increased moisture combined with very warm
temperatures will contribute to extreme instability by late
afternoon with mixed layer values in excess of 3500 J/kg across
the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Capping may present an issue
for afternoon convection development until a cold front moves
through during the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Storms will be ongoing at 00z Sunday evening across the CWA. By this
point the primary storm mode will favor an MCS or supercell cluster,
generally east of I-27. Exact placement of the greatest damaging
wind threat is not certain at this time, but will become clearer as
mesoscale processes evolve over the next 24 hours, though current
thinking is for the two eastern most columns of counties. There are
many indicators for bowing segments capable of QLCS tornadoes, large
hail, with the highest concern being damaging wind gusts. Large
inverted-V sounding profiles exhibiting near adiabtic lapse rates in
the lowest 3km ahead of the complex with DCAPE values exceeding
2,000 J/kg, o-3km bulk shear well in excess of 35kts and 0-6km bulk
shear values greater than 55kts. Due to the quick phasing of the
shortwave trough, this complex of storms will have a rather quick
storm motion between 30-40kts, which will help usher the MCS to the
south and east out of the CWA by the early morning hours of Monday.

By Monday afternoon the belt of mid-level westerlies will veer
northwesterly with anti-cyclonic curvature overspreading the CWA as
a broad upper-level ridge builds in the Mountain West. Global models
hint at a subtle shortwave Monday afternoon. The previous night`s
MCS will most certainly have an influence on Monday afternoon`s
mesoscale background and any influence on storm chances, given low-
level cloud coverage and boundary placements. NAM is more aggressive
with regards to moisture scouring across the region leaving dews in
the upper 50s on the caprock, while the global models tend to return
60+ dews across the entire CWA, suggesting greater storm chances.
With a 700mb moisture source region from the Pacific and northwest
flow and about 40kts of 0-6km bulk shear, suggests the possibility
of MCS formation near the Raton Mesa and propagation into the CWA
late afternoon into the evening. Early cloud cover should aid in
milder high temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

By Tuesday, a subtle upper-level low in the desert southwest offers
weak westerlies across the region. Guidance tends to agree on ample
surface moisture and instability, though with weaker bulk shear.
Storms seem probable, with maybe a severe storm or two. Same deal as
Monday, where cloud cover should cap highs in the low 80s. This
upper-level low looks to translate across the region by mid week.
Placement and cold front timing will significantly determine
storms chances and temperature ranges for Wednesday, at this time
confidence is low for both. In the post-frontal airmass, highs
should sit in the 70s.

Towards late week westerly mid-level winds begins to give way to
northerly/northeasterly flow as high pressure begins to build in
over the American Southwest leading to hotter temperatures. With
moisture and instability still present, the area could enter a
period of benign diurnal airmass showers/thunderstorms.

KL

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR and light winds will continue through Sunday afternoon,
before becoming breezy out of the SW. Thunderstorms may approach
KCDS near the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19