Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
980 FXUS64 KLUB 021131 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 631 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Below average temperatures continue today, with thunderstorm chances returning to most of the region this evening through late tonight. - Much warmer on Sunday with diurnally driven thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. - Hot and dry conditions expected through most of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 There remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the thunderstorm potential for portions of the CWA through early this morning. An MCS is currently observed over northeastern NM at 12 AM and is slowly tracking south-southeastward. The main question remains if it will stay over NM or cross into the far SW Panhandle and western South Plains. Large-scale models are more bullish with the latter (albeit with different timing) indicating upper waves propagating around high pressure over the Desert Southwest and an LLJ core just west of the TX/NM border. However GFS/ECMWF in particular show the MCS decaying by the time it approximately reaches the border with only isolated weak convection over the western CWA early this morning. The latest NAM currently shows a fairly accurate depiction of the location of the aforementioned MCS and keeps essentially all the associated precipitation over New Mexico through this morning. The CAMs also agree with this general idea, showing the periphery of the MCS only skirting the western edge of the CWA. These therefore are the preferred solutions and mentionable PoPs have been curtailed westward from the previous forecast. Weak easterly surface flow will gradually turn SE this afternoon keeping temperatures in the low 90s with higher cloud cover. The aforementioned upper ridge will provide sufficient capping and prevent most storm development for a majority of the day. The next reasonable chance of storms will occur later this evening as another upper trough/LLJ tracks across portions of the area. Latest model agreement is actually quite good, all indicating an MCS tracking in a southerly direction off the Caprock through early Sunday morning. While severe weather is generally not expected, as yesterday a few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall/flooding and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 An upper ridge sitting over southwestern portions of CONUS will begin to build northwards along the Rockies on Sunday. This will hinder convective chances over New Mexico as well as areas on the Caprock for Sunday. However, moist upslope surface flow will bring chances for diurnally driven thunderstorms off the Caprock Sunday afternoon and evening. The upper ridging will continue to move north and east through the work week. Conditions through the work week will be dry due to subsidence from the upper ridging. We will see a slight decrease (sadly not much) in temperatures on Monday due to easterly surface flow from the surface trough over eastern New Mexico and an increase in moisture, therefore expect Monday to be a little muggy. Following Monday, temperatures will warm to the triple digits by mid next week due to height increases from the ridge with models indicating 500 mb geopotential heights up to 600 dam. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Sub-VFR flight conditions are possible at all terminals through most of this morning, with KPVW having the highest probability of IFR CIGs with lesser chances of MVFR CIGs at KLBB and KCDS. Conditions will improve by midday with VFR expected to prevail at all sites this afternoon through this evening. Potential does exist for a complex of TSRA to impact the terminals mainly after 06z tonight, but confidence in any details or impacts is still quite low at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...30