Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
425 FXUS64 KLUB 262345 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 644 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - A few isolated thunderstorms will continue through the rest of this evening, with dry weather returning overnight. - There is a very slight chance of an additional isolated thunderstorm on Sunday. - Hot and dry conditions Monday through midweek with rain chances returning by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The upper level ridging continues to remain stagnant over southeastern portions of CONUS with the western edge just over our region. Southwesterly surface winds will continue to gradually veer to the south by this afternoon. As thicknesses increase under the upper ridging, temperatures will continue to rise into the upper 90s for most of the region with some areas off the Caprock reaching lower 100s. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with the greatest chances being west of the I-27 corridor. Although the monsoonal moisture plume has diminished, PWAT values over the region remain around or just above 1.25 inches. Daytime heating, surface dewpoints in the 60s, little to no capping, and the mid/upper level moisture supports thunderstorm development. However, any thunderstorms that develop are expected to be short- lived due to subsidence from the upper ridge. The main hazards expected from these storms will be an erratic wind gust or two and short periods of heavy rainfall. Some rumbles of thunder are also possible. Thunderstorms are expected to diminish after sunset and conditions will be dry and mild with lows in the upper 60s to 70s overnight. Sunday, similar to today, will be hot with highs in the 90s region wide. The upper ridge will gradually expand northwestward over most of the southern CONUS. With the upper high directly over our region, subsidence will prevail, keeping conditions dry through Sunday. Southerly winds will prevail overnight into Sunday, however are expected to become breezy Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 An upper high will dominate the pattern Monday through late week. The upper high will continue to slowly retrograde Monday and will be centered on the FA by Wednesday. This will gradually increase high temps each afternoon, with highs peaking in the mid/upper 90s across most of the Caprock and 100 or higher off the Caprock. Relatively high dewpoints should help keep temps from reaching advisory criteria, though temps will likely come close to advisory level across our far eastern zones by Thursday. The upper high will continue retrograding through the end of the week, becoming centered on the Desert Southwest by Saturday. The high should keep most rain chances outside of the FA through most of the week, though a few pop- up showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially near the outer edge of high. Rain chances begin to work back into the forecast by the weekend as the upper high moves to our west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Isolated TSRA will continue in the vicinity of LBB for the next couple of hours, with convection dissipating after sunset. Brief strong and erratic wind gusts should be expected near TS this evening, with predominantly southerly winds prevailing outside convection. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...30