Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
168 FXUS64 KLUB 051706 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1206 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Clouds, cooler temperatures, and some shower/thunderstorm chances this weekend. - A return to warmer and drier weather next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Satellite imagery showing quite well the overall pattern over North America today with a broad upper cyclone centered over Ontario and dominating the central half of Canada and the adjacent upper Plains and Great Lakes region of the CONUS. Farther to the south moist mid to upper flow has crested over a southward-retreating ridge over Mexico. The interaction of a fast upper jet rotating around the southwestern flank of the northern cyclone and the subtropical flow cresting the ridge across New Mexico and West Texas has resulted in a broad area of generally light precipitation across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles eastward along the Oklahoma/Kansas state line. An extension southward of this precipitation across the forecast area is expected this afternoon into the evening as top-down moistening over the southern High Plains continues. Cloud cover will and a backdoor cold front will keep temperatures limited for all but the southeastern part of the forecast area this afternoon, with surface-based instability limited as well. However, some pockets of elevated instability could be sufficient for a few heavier showers and thunderstorms to develop. The northern jet streak will move off to the east Saturday leaving only the weaker southern branch near the forecast area, and even that development will see the said southern, subtropical branch sag southward with time. This will see precip chances shift to the south as well. At this time only the southwestern corner of the forecast area seems to have enough of a chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm to mention in the forecast. However, mid and upper level cloud cover will remain fairly abundant and should keep upside potential to temperatures limited mainly in a range from 75-80 degrees in the modest post-frontal air mass. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 As early as Saturday night the Mexican ridge will begin to build northward again as the subtropical jet and associated cyclonic curvature move off quickly to the southeast. Some low level moisture advection up the Pecos River valley into eastern New Mexico late in the day Saturday could set up some diurnally-driven convection in those areas. West to northwest flow aloft Saturday night into early Sunday could see some of those storms move eastward into the forecast area with a repeat possible Sunday afternoon and night. The setup isn`t a great one, but the potential is high enough to justify chance PoPs, particularly for western zones. Precip chances will effectively come to an end as early as Monday as more amplification of the ridge is progged to occur and as said ridge edges eastward with time. This will remove mentionable PoPs and result in a reversion to above-normal temperatures through next week. Late in the period will see a trough develop over the western CONUS that will attempt to activate convection across New Mexico in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, but at this time it looks like the ridge will hold over the southern High Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Overcast skies will persist through this evening, however all sites should remain VFR. MVFR CIGs are possible at KPVW and KLBB after midnight through Saturday morning. Light WNW winds will shift NE and remain as such through the end of the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...19