467
FXUS64 KLUB 220431
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1031 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 954 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

 - Dry and quiet weather this weekend and early next week.

 - Very warm temperatures Saturday and Sunday, then turning cooler
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Water vapor imagery this afternoon currently shows an upper level
low spiraling over the Great Lakes region, as another upper level
trough makes its way into the PacNW. This will allow northwest flow
aloft to prevail overhead of the FA as an upper level ridge moves in
from the west.

Temperatures tonight will be chilly once again, a few high clouds
will creep into the FA tonight, otherwise mostly clear skies will
prevail under light winds which will lead to max radiational
cooling. Expect overnight lows to dip down into the lower to mid 30s
on the Caprock, while off the Caprock temperatures near 40 can be
expected. Quiet and dry conditions will continue tomorrow as the
upper level ridge moves closer into the region, increasing thickness
and height values across the region. This in combination with mostly
sunny skies and southerly surface winds will lead to daytime highs a
few degrees warmer than previous, in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Generally quiet weather is expected to persist area-wide through the
next week as the upper air pattern remains relatively benign. A
series of weak disturbances in the mainly zonal flow aloft will
allow lee surface troughing to persist just to our north, resulting
in a strengthening downslope wind component along with slightly
breezier conditions over the next several days. Highs will
consequently warm to values 10 to 15 degrees above normal over the
weekend, with a few locations potentially reaching 80 degrees on
Sunday afternoon. A series of cold fronts will then pass southward
through the region next week, bringing cooler and more seasonable
fall temperatures as highs return to the 50s and 60s. High clouds
will increase during this period as Pacific moisture aloft
streams overhead, but a continued very dry lower atmosphere will
keep precipitation chances near zero through the middle of next
week. Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, some models depict an
upper level storm system moving eastward across the central
CONUS, but at this time the track of this system appears too far
north to bring any meaningful weather to our region with a dry
forecast favored for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Generally light winds and VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07