570
FXUS64 KLUB 251146
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
546 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

 - Cold front pushing through the region today will slightly cool
   temperatures for Wednesday.

 - Cooler temperatures and active weather possible this weekend
   through early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mostly zonal flow aloft will prevail now that the upper system that
resulted in active weather this past weekend has moved away from the
region. An upper trough translating over the Dakotas this morning
will push a dry cold front through the region early this afternoon.
Breezy north to northeasterly winds will prevail through the
afternoon following the front. Despite the FROPA, CAA will be
delayed until tonight and can expect above normal highs in the 60s
for much of the region today. Breezy winds are expected to weaken by
this evening. Should be a cold night with lows at or below freezing
for much of the Caprock and just above freezing lows for off the
Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Quiet weather is expected the first couple of days of the long term
forecast. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail Wednesday and
Thursday as a deamplifying ridge sits to the west. By Friday, upper
flow will shift back to zonal as the upper ridge is expected to
flattened. Cooler air following the FROPA Tuesday will continue into
Wednesday keeping temperatures below seasonal normal with highs in
the 50s across the region. Temperatures are expected to gradually
increase the latter half of the week with highs in the 60s for much
of the region as surface winds shift to the south in response to the
development of a lee low.

The return of active weather is possible this weekend through early
next week. WAA from increasing southwesterly winds during the day
Friday will bring chances for showers over the southern Rolling
Plains in the evening, however most of that activity will stay to
the east of our region. An upper trough translating through the
Central Plains will push a cold front through the region Saturday
cooling temperatures this weekend through next week as models
indicate Arctic air continue to push into our region. The next bout
of precipitation chances with the possibility for snow will return
early Sunday, however models differ on the upper pattern. ECMWF
indicates a drier pattern of a positively tilted trough over western
CONUS developing to a closed low southwest of the coast of SoCal by
Monday. GFS indicates a wetter pattern with an upper trough near the
Pacific Northwest swinging south over the Four Corners region. As
this is still a few days out, the NBM widespread slight chance PoPs
beginning late Sunday will be kept this package, however can expect
changes in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

There remains a very small chance of fog near the KCDS terminal
this morning but is highly unlikely. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
through the TAF period. A cold front will move through the region
early this afternoon shifting winds to the north and becoming
breezy.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01