Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
707 FXUS64 KLUB 161113 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 613 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - A couple of thunderstorms are forecast to develop over portions of the South Plains this afternoon and evening. - Fair weather is forecast Friday, with a wide range of temperatures expected as a Pacific cold front stalls across the region. - Roller coaster temperatures are forecast this weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, the cold core cyclone embedded within a positively-tilted trough was beginning to ejected northeastward into the northern Rocky Mountains, which has shifted the apex of the amplifying subtropical ridge over the eastern Great Plains. The CWA remains within the inflection point of the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and the right-entrance region to the sharpening belt of cyclonic flow over the Desert Southwest as it rounds the base of the trough. The leading shortwave trough will eject into the northern Great Plains by this evening, with the primary vorticity lobe located nearly 900 miles north of the CWA. Series of smaller- scale perturbations will also translate through the base of the trough and eject over the CWA this afternoon and evening, with a narrow corridor of moist, isentropic ascent shifting over W TX during the afternoon and evening hours. At the surface, a broad fetch of southeasterly flow remains intact across the entire region, with a Pacific cold front now east of the AZ/NM state line. A diffuse trough branches southward from a lee cyclone near the Palmer Divide. Leeward pressure falls were steepening ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and the related isallobaric response will cause winds to shift southward and evolve into a brisk breeze by the late-morning hours. Strong heating is expected today, with highs ranging from the lower-middle 80s on the Caprock and into the middle-upper 80s in the Rolling Plains, as deep mixing of the boundary-layer will occur. Thunderstorm chances will arrive this afternoon for areas west of the I-27 corridor, as the ribbon of moist, isentropic ascent atop the arrival of the Pacific cold front in eastern NM occurs in congruence with peak heating. The intensity of the kinematic fields relative to the skinny updrafts and entrainment of parcels lifting past the LFC will keep coverage isolated even if a row of tCu develops over the western South Plains. Storms that develop will be fast-moving, with a mean storm motion vector to the northeast at nearly 40 kt. Therefore, the residence time of storms in the CWA will be short-lived, with storm potential waning prior to midnight CDT/05Z tonight. Breezy winds will last into the nighttime hours, with winds gradually veering southwestward as the Pacific cold front moves slowly eastward. Low temperatures were manually adjusted for locales in the far southwestern TX PH, with lows in the upper 40s forecast for portions of Bailey and Parmer Counties. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The Pacific cold front is forecast to stall near the edge of the Caprock Escarpment by Friday afternoon, as a basal, shortwave trough lags behind over the Four Corners region. Confluent winds will become established across the CWA, with southwesterly winds in wake of the front while remaining backed poleward ahead of it in the Rolling Plains. The presence of the front will result in a wide range of temperatures, with highs ranging from the lower 80s near the NM state line to the upper 80s in the Rolling Plains. PoPs were effectively NIL from the recent NBM, with the exception of a sliver in the far southeastern TX PH, and this is being maintained despite previous forecasts indicating PoPs in the eastern counties. While some turrets/tCu may develop, it appears that the deleterious effects of dry air entrainment will prevent updrafts from maturing during the afternoon and evening hours, especially with the surface low being displaced to the north of the CWA and near the OK PH. The basal, shortwave trough will pivot over the CWA Saturday morning, causing the Pacific cold front to finally move to the east of the CWA and shift winds to the west. A similar temperature gradient compared to Friday is forecast, with the coolest highs near the NM state line while adiabatic compression is enhanced along the lee of the Caprock Escarpment, thus bolstering highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the Rolling Plains. Meanwhile, an intense, northern-stream shortwave trough will be digging into the central Great Plains, resulting in the passage of a stronger, secondary cold front, with a modified cP airmass, forecast Saturday evening and into Sunday morning. Pressure tendencies will begin to slacken as this front moves through the CWA, but a brief period of gusts may accompany the immediate passage of the front. The combination of a clear sky, light winds, and a 1024 mb post-frontal surface high will yield excellent radiational cooling Saturday night. Temperatures in the upper 30s are forecast for Sunday morning, particularly across the northwestern zones, with lows in the lower-middle 40s for most of the CWA and into the lower 50s across the southeastern zones. Much cooler high temperatures are forecast Sunday, but remain above normal even as winds veered northeastward. Global NWP guidance continues to advertise a progressive upper air pattern by early next week, although there are discrepancies on the amplitude and position of the mean troughing and whether or not a closed low develops to the west of the CWA. Regardless, additional frontal passages will accompany the train of shortwave troughs progressing across the Lower 48 next week, with a brief warm-up Monday before the next cold front arrives late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The CWA should be bereft of any precipitation chances through early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR is expected through the TAF period. Scattered thunderstorm activity late this afternoon is expected to remain to the west of the KLBB and KPVW terminals. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...01