667
FXUS64 KLUB 031109
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
609 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, remain in the forecast for
   tonight.

 - Thursday night through Saturday evening looks wet with the
   potential for healthy rain amounts.

 - Potential for accumulating snowfall amounts on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Convection has developed just south of the FA in the Big Country,
and this activity will continue moving northeastward into our far
southeastern zones through the early morning hours. The overall
severe threat remains low with this activity as instability is
minimal. Heavy rainfall will also be limited due to 30+ degree
temp/dewpoint spreads at the surface. The main threat from this
activity will be brief wind gusts up to 60 mph, but even that will
be somewhat of a challenge as storm tops currently only reach to
under 35k feet. Across our northwestern zones, midlevel stratiform
rain has finally moistened the surface enough for light rainfall to
be measured at the Friona West Texas Mesonet. Similar to last night,
this activity should remain through most of the night into mid
morning.

A lull in precip is expected for most of the daytime hours today.
Most of the FA will be on the moist side of the dryline as it
retreats westward by mid morning. The dryline will be a good source
of surface lift for showers and thunderstorms later this evening
through the overnight hours as an upper shortwave moves over the
region. Thunder will be limited across the FA, especially on the
Caprock, as there will be little to no CAPE. This will also help
keep the threat for both severe storms and heavy rainfall low. Rain
showers will be possible area wide through sunrise tomorrow
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Chances of precipitation this weekend is still on track. The upper
low that develops Thursday night over the Desert Southwest will kick
off the beginning of the precipitation that night and continue
through the day Friday as the low brings deep moist ascent over the
region as the warm advection zone sets up overhead. Could see a lull
in precipitation Friday afternoon however, precipitation chances
will ramp back up again in the evening as the low begins to slowly
shift east setting up a deformation zone partially over the region
and will continue precipitation chances through Saturday.
Precipitation chances should diminish by Saturday night as models
show the upper low getting absorbed into northerly flow. There is
enough instability for possible thunderstorm chances for Friday but
the chance for severe thunderstorms are low. A cold front will track
through the region Friday and in combination with falling
precipitation and dynamic cooling, temperatures will drop below
seasonal average through the weekend. Northerly winds on Saturday
are expected to be breezy, aiding in shuttling in cold air through
the day. Temperatures will be cold enough for a mention of wintry
type precipitation Saturday for on the Caprock with accumulating
snowfall amounts possible. With multiple days of falling
precipitation, current QPF forecasts range 1 to 2 inches liquid and
liquid equivalent.

Following the multi-day precipitation event, next week looks to be
dry. After the upper low gets absorbed into northerly flow, models
show a positively tilted trough will set up over the southern High
Plains as ridging builds over the western CONUS and will move east
over the CONUS through the week. Temperatures should warm up through
the week, reaching lower 80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least this evening. Rain
showers will increase in coverage by the late evening/overnight
hours at all terminals. While CIGs are expected to remain VFR,
there is the possibility for CIGs to drop the MVFR overnight
through the end of the TAF cycle. VCSH has been added after 00Z at
all TAF sites as confidence is high in showers moving into the
region, but timing of coverage is still uncertain.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51