982
FXUS64 KLUB 040544
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A cold front will continue to push south through the region
   tonight, providing storm chances across the southern Rolling
   Plains.

 - Localized flash flooding will be possible late Wednesday night
   into Thursday morning across portions of the Llano Estacado
   and Rolling Plains.

 - Daily chances for severe thunderstorms will return Thursday
   afternoon and will persist through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A cold front continues to push southward through the region early
this afternoon, where as of 12 PM CDT is currently oriented along a
line from Muleshoe to Happy to Pampa. Behind the front, temperatures
have cooled several degrees into the 60s and 70s and given the
faster progression of the front, went ahead and made a slight
adjustment to today`s highs to reflect cooling of 1 to 3 degrees,
primarily across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle where highs
topped out in the low 70s. Areas south of the boundary will
continue to see much warmer temperatures as southerly surface
winds continue to usher in WAA into the FA, with highs in the 80s
to around 90 degrees across portions of the South Plains and
Rolling Plains.

A few thunderstorms have developed across portions of the
southeastern Rolling Plains as a weak shortwave passes through the
region but have since tracked east. In addition to this, we are also
seeing initialization along the frontal boundary across the
northern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma where these storms
will continue to build and track south and east through the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, the dryline will continue to mix
eastward and is currently situated across the Rolling Plains with
dewpoints within this warm sector in the mid to upper 60s to low
70s, resulting in an increasingly unstable environment across
this area. Although synoptic scale forcing will be limited, lift
provided by the front and dryline may be enough for thunderstorms
to develop, primarily across the Rolling Plains. Some storms may
become severe, capable of large hail and strong winds, with
inverted-v forecast soundings suggesting the potential for strong
downburst winds, as well as MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg and
bulk shear magnitudes of 30 knots. Thunderstorms look to exit the
region late this evening, as the front progresses southward into
the Big Country. Thereafter, fairly quiet and cooler weather is
expected with overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 60 degrees
with diminishing winds through the overnight period. Areas across
the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may see a few isolated
thunderstorms roll in from the higher terrain in eastern New
Mexico but should quickly exit after daybreak. Otherwise, a
quieter weather day is expected through Wednesday with highs
several degrees cooler in the 70s and 80s thanks to the post
frontal airmass remaining locked in place. Northerly winds will
begin to veer out of the southeast by the afternoon, allowing for
a return of low-level moisture before the active weather returns
during the overnight period. Continue reading the long term
discussion for further details regarding the overnight Wednesday
to Thursday morning period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A late-night storm threat is likely for the CWA late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning. Supercells will still start forming
after dinner time at the New Mexico/Texas border and an MCS is
likely to develop. With that, a threat for flash flooding, high
winds, hail and possible tornadoes is present into mid-morning.
There is moderate instability present with MUCAPE values
approaching 3000 J/kg in the western part of the CWA. 0-6km bulk
shear values are forecast to be around 60 kts across much of the
CWA, allowing for a supercell storm mode. 0-3km SRH values are
also high, exceeding 400 m^2/s^2, and LCL`s are forecasted to be
around 1000ft. With PWAT values higher than 1.5in, and possible
storm training could serve to increase flash flooding concern.

On Thursday into Friday, height falls aloft associated with a parent
low over Hudson Bay promotes surface cyclogenesis near the Palmer
Divide in central Colorado. The Texas Panhandle is in the left
exit region of an upper- level jet, allowing for large scale
ascent in this region. There is ridging extending from the Baja
east to the Caribbean, which will help bring in the southwesterly
flow aloft. Southeast surface winds will reinforce low-level
moisture.

Strong to severe storms are probable for the CWA on Thursday.
Supercells are expected to be the initial storm mode with an all
hazards threat; large hail being the main concern. As the evening
sets in, storms will likely transition into an MCS where damaging
winds will become the main concern. During the morning and early
afternoon hours, a stout inversion will be in place that should
erode by the late afternoon ahead of convective initiation. Strong
instability is anticipated with forecasted SBCAPE values over
West Texas exceeding 3000 J/kg in some places by the late
afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear values increase throughout the day
into the evening hours, some places in the CWA exceeding 65 knots.
Strong 0-1km shear values increase as the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens into the overnight hours with values of 30 kts, and
0-1km SRH of 250 m^2/s^2 at 00z from the latest GFS sounding.

By Friday afternoon a weak cold front looks to sag into the
north/west portions of the CWA. This initiating boundary could be
the focus for storms in an environment characterized by 2500 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 50kts. Shear
looks to maximize after sunset as the LLJ strengthens.

Into the weekend, a low-pressure originating from the Canadian
prairies propagates towards the Great Lakes region following the
upper-level trough into Monday. A subtropical jet is draped across
the South-Central US associated with a positively tilted trough over
the Rockies this will continue the belt of Westerly flows over the
area.

For the weekend, both days look to be stormy, with moderate to high
CAPE, and strong bulk shear overspreading the area. It is too early
to gauge more precise mesoscale parameters and boundary placements
at this time.

Late in the period, the zonal flow changes transitions to a
northwesterly flow, which should continue the pattern of
protracted unsettled weather across the region.

AB/SC/KL

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

MVFR stratus is slowly expanding toward PVW and should reach LBB
in the coming hours, although this is now looking less persistent
and should clear out to VFR by early/mid-morning with a later
turnover at CDS. Near and just beyond the end of this TAF window,
TS chances should ramp up particularly from PVW-CDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...93