035
FXUS64 KLUB 232321
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
521 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 519 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

 - Warm, dry and slightly breezy conditions continue through
   Sunday.

 - A cold front Monday will bring a quick cold spell before
   seasonable temperatures return mid-week.

 - Dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected
   Thanksgiving Day and into the weekend with another cold front
   Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Upper ridging will move to our east this evening with zonal flow
dominating tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Continuous surface
lee troughing ahead of an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest
will keep winds out of the southwest the rest of today and tonight.
A surface low will break from the lee trough and push southward
tomorrow morning into the afternoon as an upper low moves across
southern Canada and pushes a cold front southward. The southward
moving surface low will bring winds to the west/west-southwest for
much of tomorrow with wind speeds increasing slightly to 15-20 mph
as the surface low moves closer to the FA. The front is expected to
be moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle by 00Z tomorrow evening. The
persistent west to west-southwesterly winds will allow highs to warm
into the mid/upper 70s and low 80s tomorrow afternoon. Overnight
lows will be mild, upper 30s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an omega block pattern across
the CONUS, with the upper level trough from last weekend tracking
through the northeastern US, the near stationary upper level low
over the PacNW, with the FA positioned underneath the upper level
ridge. The pattern will begin to change come Monday, with northwest
flow aloft becoming more zonal as an upper level low tracks through
Saskatchewan into Manitoba, shifting the ridge to the east.
Shortwaves riding along the southern periphery of the trough axis
will continue to push the low off to the east, allowing for a cold
front to pass through the FA Monday. Model guidance differs slightly
in the exact timing of FROPA, given the uncertainty of when the
shortwave passes through to our north. Regardless, it looks like the
front will arrive Monday morning which should make way for much
temperatures 20 degrees cooler than previous day, in the lower 50s
across our northern counties and in the upper 50s across our
southern counties. Post frontal winds will shift out of the north
where they are expected to become breezy around 10 to 20 mph, with
stronger winds across the Rolling Plains and far southeastern TX
Panhandle closer to the surface trough. Overnight lows will be near
the freezing mark for most locations with clear skies and light
winds prevailing leading to max radiational cooling through the
night. Winds overnight will veer out of the southeast through the
early morning hours as the surface high returns and moves east then
veer out of the southwest as a surface trough develops in
southeastern CO Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday night, a lee cyclone
is expected to develop as the upper level low over the PacNW moves
onshore and tracks eastward. This will lead to westerly flow aloft
and breezy southwest winds across the FA through Wednesday, aiding
in temperatures back in the 60s and 70s.

Ensembles keep this as a positively oriented open wave trough as it
enters the Central and Southern Plains late Wednesday night. Exact
timing of FROPA associated with this system remains uncertain,
however; deterministic models have this front arriving just before
midnight on Wednesday but will be dependent on the positioning of
the trough. This looks to be a dry FROPA with lack of moisture
present with the bulk of the moisture further to our north.
Regardless, this will lead to a chilly Thanksgiving Day for the
region with high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Expect
these temperatures to remain in tact through Friday as northwest
flow aloft remain in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period. A brief period of LLWS
is possible late this evening especially at KCDS, but duration is
expected to be too limited to include specific TAF mention at
this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30