309
FXUS64 KLUB 081718
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1118 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

 - Rain will continue to clear out through the afternoon.

 - Dry and warmer this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A dynamic mid to upper level low centered over western New Mexico
early this morning will rotate northeastward toward northeastern New
Mexico at end of day with a significant piece of energy rotating
with it on its southeastern flank. This energy will bring one last
round showers and thunderstorms (spreading eastward into the
forecast area from southeastern New Mexico at time of writing)
likely followed by a fairly sharp cutoff or back edge working its
way across the forecast area. This back edge should reach southern
part of the I-27 corridor around noon and then quickly northeastward
with precip chances likely coming to an end in the Childress area by
mid to late afternoon. This back edge followed by dry slotting will
bring clearing skies to much of the forecast area and gusty west
winds which will in turn warm much of the area to or a bit above
yesterday`s highs. However, closer to the low across the northwestern
quarter of the forecast area cloud cover near the core of the low
will keep temperatures a bit cooler similar to yesterday.

Regarding the Flood Watch, the persistent line of thunderstorms that
developed across the Concho Valley and Big Country into North Texas
has robbed us of a decent amount of the low to mid level moisture
needed to result in more widespread and longer-lasting rainfall.
Still, convective cores moving across the area early this morning
are efficient rain producers with some heavy rainfall. Where this
rain has already fallen late evening to early morning, much of it is
running off quickly as soils remain saturated from this past
weekend`s heavy rains. So, there is enough of a threat remaining to
hold onto the Watch. However, it is anticipated with the dry slot
moving overhead later this morning that an early cancellation of
much/all of the Watch is likely later today.

Tonight the upper low will continue to lift to the northeast into
western Kansas with west winds slowly diminishing while drier air
moves into the area from the west. However, that dry advection will
be offset some by the moist soils. Still, low temperatures should
fall off fairly well with NBM and MOS in good agreement. Enough low
level dry advection should occur to mitigate chances of stratus
and/or fog late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Calm and dry weather expected the next few days following the
decent precipitation we had this past week. By early Saturday
morning, the upper level low will be sitting over the Central
Plains and will move northeastward the rest of Saturday into
Sunday bringing zonal flow aloft. A small shortwave trough will
move through the northern Central Plains possibly pushing a weak
cold front through the region. The only effects of this front will
be a wind shift and delay warming temperatures by a day. Cooler
but still above normal temperatures are expected mid week as an
upper level trough brings another cold front through the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low CIGS will continue at all TAF sites first clearing out at KLBB
and KPVW early this afternoon and late afternoon at KCDS as an
upper level storm system moves away from the area. VFR will
prevail late this afternoon through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01