784
FXUS64 KLUB 240342
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

 - Very hot temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday with possible
   record breaking highs on Monday.

 - Elevated fire conditions expected Monday afternoon with breezy
   southwesterly winds and low RH values.

 - Thunderstorm chances every evening from Tuesday through
   Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The rest of tonight will be quiet and with unseasonably warm lows.
Lows will range from the lower 70s across the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle to lower 80s across the eastern portions of the Rolling
Plains. Light southerly winds will gradually shift to the west
through the overnight hours as a surface low to the north of the
forecast area shifts to the southeast. Winds are also expected to
increase to around 15 mph through the morning and early afternoon
hours. Winds will weaken and become variable through the late
afternoon and evening hours as the surface low continues to move
away from the region and a boundary looks to move in from the north.
Very similar to the past few days, the upper ridging will remain
over the region Monday resulting in very hot temperatures again.
Temperatures will range from 104 to 109 degrees on the Caprock and
up to 113 degrees off the Caprock. An Extreme Heat Warning is in
effect for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling
Plains and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle and South Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. Record
breaking high temperatures are possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The
current daily high temperature for KLBB is 104 degrees set in 2024
and KCDS is 109 degrees set in 1936. The forecast highs for KLBB and
KCDS are 106 and 110 degrees, respectively. With breezy winds
through much of the afternoon and RH values dropping as low as 12
percent, elevated fire conditions will be possible Monday,
especially during the afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and
Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. A surface trough across
CO/NM will result in isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms
developing across eastern NM. There is a slight chance for these
thunderstorms to sneak into our forecast area, especially across
areas on the Caprock, late Monday afternoon through the evening. Not
expecting much from these storms, however could see gusty outflows
and plenty of lightning. A boundary pushing in from the north could
prolong storms through the overnight hours. However, the chances for
that are low. Once the storms clear the region, the rest of the
night is expected to be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the
far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 80s across the southern
Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Luckily, Monday will be the hottest day of the week and Tuesday will
be the start of a "cool" down the rest of the week. The upper
ridging that parked over the region the past few days will finally
begin to retreat west on Tuesday. Models are in agreement the upper
ridging will remain over the Desert Southwest through the latter
half of the week. Although Tuesday will be slightly cooler compared
to Monday, high temperatures will remain in the triple digits. Highs
off the Caprock will be around Heat Advisory temperatures(105-109
degrees), therefore can expect a Heat Advisory issued in future
forecasts. High temperatures the rest of the week will range from
mid 90s to just below Heat Advisory temperatures. Multiple passing
embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances every late
afternoon and evening from Tuesday through Thursday. Sadly, models
are indicating the upper ridging will push back east over the region
through the weekend bringing dry conditions and very hot
temperatures again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR and generally light winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>023-
027>030-033>036-039>041.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ024>026-
031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19