Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
289 FXUS64 KLUB 031103 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 503 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 - Slightly cooler today with lighter winds. Temperatures remain well above average. - Well above average temperatures continue through Friday. - Slight precipitation chances Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Winds are steadily decreasing across the region as the surface low continues pushing southeastward from the Rolling Plains into Central Texas. The upper shortwave trough axis will be east of the FA by early morning and will bring a cold front in its wake. This will keep afternoon highs in the 60s today and will cool this morning`s lows by 10-15 degrees over Friday morning, low 30s to low 40s. Tonight`s lows will cool by an additional few degrees as surface high pressure settles over the region with most areas seeing temps drop into the low to upper 30s. Winds will remain light today and tonight as a result from the surface high. Skies will remain mostly clear as upper ridging moves overhead by this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Upper ridging will build on Sunday and along with breezy southwest surface winds will help to drive temperatures again well above average in the 70s for much of the area. A shortwave moving over the Rockies on Monday will lead to relatively lower surface pressure developing to our northwest which cause winds to increase and veer more due westerly. This will further increase temperatures and bring potentially elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the area. A cutoff low will track southward over the California coast before moving eastward across the Desert Southwest. Currently the GFS shows the low somewhat re-phasing with a more broad trough across the west on Wednesday into Thursday leading to a stronger vort max and thus greater forcing. ECMWF maintains it as essentially a shortwave and tracks it to the south of our area keeping all precipitation to the east. Both respective ensembles do not really resolve the aforementioned low at all and maintain broad troughing. In short, confidence remains minimal at this time and broad slight chance PoPs is still the best hedge. The broad troughing does look to persist into next weekend ushering in a cooler airmass and possibly bringing temperatures at least back towards seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Continued VFR with light winds through tonight. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93