486
FXUS64 KLUB 070527 CCA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will persist along with cooler
  temperatures through Wednesday.

- Drier and warmer conditions are expected late week with an
  increase in fire weather concerns over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

An upper level trough extended from Hudson Bay into the
northern Rockies and this has helped drive a cold front into the
Texas Panhandle early on Monday.  As expected, this frontal boundary
ceased southward movement and retreated during the afternoon hours
before beginning its southward motion during the evening. Out
west, we have a low off the California coast and a trough
approaching British Columbia. The trough should drag eastward
across the northern part of the country with flow across west
Texas transitioning from initially southwesterly flow aloft to a
near- zonal regime.

By sunrise Tuesday morning, the front should be situated just south
of the CWFA.  Scattered shower activity could persist into the
morning hours perhaps making it as far east as the western Rolling
Plains.  We could see some lower clouds around sunrise on Tuesday
before mixing sets in by late morning.  By mid-day, mild elevated
instability could pave the way for some modest thunderstorm
activity. Copious moisture around H7 will likely keep the clouds
sufficiently numerous to keep high temperatures in the 60s NW, 70s
central and 80s in the SE. Tuesday evening will see another shot
at storms moving out of eastern NM. Once again, rainfall totals
should be quite meager and most areas are expected to remain dry
with the best chance of rain across the western half of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

By late Wednesday, we`ll have a low just making its way across
Puget Sound with high pressure firmly in control of the south
central CONUS. The PacNW low will dig southward along the coast
and phase with the remains of TC Priscilla as the system converts
to a high amplitude trough before reforming across the northern
Canadian Prairies bringing southwesterly flow aloft to the region
this coming weekend. Once again on Wednesday morning, some low
clouds could grace the area though the bulk of the cloudiness will
be up around the H7 level. A few showers remain possible into
Wednesday, mainly west, with partly to mostly cloudy skies
indicated though once we get into Thursday, we`ll see the drying
and warming trend start in earnest. At this point, the moisture
associated with the decaying tropical cyclone looks to track well
NW of the area into the northern to central plains by the weekend
as well. What could be an issue, will be prospects for increased
fire weather concerns as winds start to pick up Saturday and
Sunday somewhat akin to last weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A weak cold front is moving slowly southward through the South
Plains area with generally light east-northeast flow behind it on
the Caprock and a little stronger north-northeast flow off the
Caprock. The biggest concern will be low cloud potential. Hi-res
models are generally playing down the possibility, but
observational trends and pattern recognition suggest an increasing
probability of a period of MVFR ceilings, especially at KPVW
and/or KCDS, through at least the morning hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...07