479
FXUS64 KLUB 010331
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

 - September starts where August left off  hot and dry.

 - A few afternoon storms are possible Wednesday and Thursday near
   the NM border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

It may be September in a few hours, but summer`s grip remains strong
which is not unusual for Texas. Winds in the 20-30k foot layer
remain SSE on the back side of a broad ridge, the center of which is
taking aim on the Ozarks tonight and eventually the Great Smokies
by Wednesday. As the high shoves farther east, our upper-level
winds will veer more SW on Tuesday and Wednesday helping to advect
a layer of monsoonal moisture closer to the TX-NM border. It
remains too unlikely for any of these monsoonal showers and storms
to drift into our territory on Tuesday, but Wednesday holds a bit
more potential for some afternoon showers and storms near the NM
border. Otherwise, high temps on Tuesday will dial back to their
lowest levels all week with low/mid 90s on the Caprock and upper
90s/100 elsewhere before creeping higher on Wednesday. Similar to
Monday, less subsidence and sufficient boundary layer moisture
will support scattered cumulus with precious shade through the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

On Thursday, the remains of Edouard should be found wobbling
around central or northern Texas while we hold onto a fraction of
monsoonal moisture largely anchored over southern AZ and NM. This
moist plume should aid in another round of very spotty afternoon
showers/storms across our far W-NW zones. High temps should reach
their hottest readings for the week on Thursday before thicknesses
decline thereafter accompanying deeper ESE flow thanks to the
upper high retreating and staying just north of I40. Ensemble
spread grows this weekend into next week regarding this high`s
position and strength, yet it remains close enough to us to keep
a lid on additional precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

CAVOK with no impactful winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93