135
FXUS64 KLUB 052309
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
509 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

 - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions this
   afternoon near and west of I-27/US-87.

 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather expected to persist through
   Saturday.

 - Colder from Sunday through Wednesday with a slight chance of
   light wintry precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Clouds and light fog still persist across the far eastern Rolling
Plains. We should continue to see clearing from west to east as
winds continue to veer to the west and drier air pushes in to the
region. Winds on the Caprock have responded to the surface lee
trough by veering westward and increasing to 20 to 25 mph. This is
allowing for elevated to critical fire weather conditions to develop
across our western zones. Increased fire weather danger should stay
confined to our western two rows of counties as lower dewpoints were
delayed due to widespread cloud cover and fog not dissipating until
late this morning. Winds are expected to drop to 10 mph or less area
wide after sunset and remain light overnight.

A second backdoor cold front is progged to move into the Texas
Panhandle around sunrise tomorrow morning. The forward progression
of the front will rely mostly on airmass density as it will have to
overcome zonal upper level winds. We will likely see the front push
at least into our northeastern counties around noon tomorrow, and
this will help keep highs on the cool side. The rest of the FA will
see warm highs once again, mid 70s to low 80s, thanks to west to
southwesterly surface winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Underneath zonal flow aloft, a backdoor cold front will push into
west Texas Thursday during the afternoon and evening hours. With the
associated surface high well displaced over the midwest, some
uncertainty exists in how far this front pushes and if it
persists into the day Friday. As this front stalls, patchy fog
development will be possible during the overnight hours.

On the Caprock Friday, dry southwesterly flow is expected to prevail
pushing high temperatures into the low 80`s as lee troughing occurs
east of the Rockies. As very dry air from the low to mid levels is
mixed down to the surface, relative humidity values are expected to
fall into the single digits, resulting in elevated fire conditions.
East of the Caprock, model spread is higher in the daytime highs.
The NAM holds strong on the cold air and easterly winds sticking
around east of the Caprock, while the globals have swift recovery
back into the 80`s with southwesterly winds. Currently sticking with
NBM guidance that has slightly cooler temperatures in our
northeastern counties Friday.

As we move into Saturday, above average temperatures will continue
across the area as breezy southwesterly winds persist. Relative
humidity values will fall into the single digits, with elevated fire
conditions expected once again across the area. As we look to our
north Saturday, our air mass changer, a strong cold front,
associated with a 1032mb high over the northern Plains, will be
racing south through the High Plains. Recent model runs are quicker
with this front reaching the northern portions of the area by
Saturday afternoon. With 6-8mb/6hr pressure rises behind the front,
winds will be gusty at 15-20kt but are expected to remain below
advisory criteria. As return flow sets up Sunday beneath clear
skies, temperatures should warm into the 50`s even in this
postfrontal airmass before another stronger surge of cold air Sunday
Night.

As we move into the week Monday, zonal flow will begin to break
down, with troughing over the southwestern US. Two shortwave troughs
will move through the parent trough, bringing periods of lift and
chances for light precipitation Monday and Tuesday. Some of this
precipitation could be wintry given the cold airmass in place
with high`s in the 40s and low`s near freezing.

Tomerlin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Breezy, southwesterly winds will diminish in the next 1-2 hours,
with VFR prevailing for the TAF period at KLBB and KPVW. There is
a possibility for LIFR stratus to return INVOF KCDS tonight, but
confidence is too low to warrant an explicit mention in this TAF
cycle. Trends will continue to be monitored.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027-
028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...09