146
FXUS64 KLUB 082311
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
611 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM CDT this evening
   for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains.

 - Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to move into the far
   southwestern Texas Panhandle this evening.

 - Daily thunderstorm chances reload Saturday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

15Z upper air analysis depicts a neutrally-tilting trough pivoting
over the northern Rocky Mountains, with the leading shortwave trough
having already ejected into southern Manitoba. A 250 mb jet streak
near 75 kt was rounding the base of this trough over the northern
Great Basin, which has modulated the amplitude of the subtropical
ridge centered over the southern High Plains. Geopotential height
tendencies were negative on the 12Z objectively analyzed UA charts,
which has dampened the ridge accordingly (i.e., 596 dam). This has
allowed a train of shortwave perturbations to propagate along the
inflection point of the dampening ridge and the more-amplified flow
to the north of the Four Corners region, which has generated
orographically-enhanced convection off of the higher terrain. These
perturbations, some of which will be convectively-augmeneted, are
forecast to remain north-northwest of the CWA throughout the rest of
today, as the ridge will be slow to break down.

At the surface, the primary cyclone was located along the 40th
parallel near MCK, with a dryline branching southward across western
KS and into the northern TX PH. The circulation becomes increasingly
nebulous with southward extent into the CWA, as a plume of lower 60
degree dewpoints extends westward towards the NM state line despite
surface winds remaining veered. The dryline is expected to sharpen
somewhat by this afternoon, to the point of having an inkling of
demarcation on mesonet data, but will remain diffuse, as deep mixing
of the boundary-layer occurs once again area-wide. High temperatures
across the Rolling Plains will be within Heat Advisory criteria,
which will remain in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening. Elsewhere,
temperatures will near or breach 100 degrees, but remain below
advisory-level, especially as surface winds back southward as the
respective cyclone rotates into western KS this evening.

The remnants of a decaying cluster of thunderstorms originating from
the Raton Mesa are forecast to move into the far southwestern TX PH
near and after 00Z, with coverage of storms remaining isolated and
the potential vanishing altogether near 05Z. Outflow-related theta
deficits should diminish entirely and do little to affect the
gradient winds, which will veer southwestward tonight as the lee
cyclone rotates towards NW OK, resulting in a very warm night for
the entire CWA. The base of the neutrally-tilted trough is forecast
to translate farther southward by Saturday, with a 250 mb jet streak
near 40 kt emerging into far southwestern KS beneath veered flow in
the mid-levels, albeit substantially weaker, at around 20 kt. Cloud
debris from anvils and residual Pacific moisture will linger
throughout the day Saturday, which should act to prevent hotter
temperatures from coming to fruition. Regardless, very deep mixing
of the boundary-layer will occur once again, with triple-digit
temperatures expected area-wide.

Isolated-to-widely-scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
over portions of the Caprock Escarpment late Saturday afternoon and
evening. The proximity of the diffuse, retreating dryline beneath
the belt of weak, northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will provide
enough moist, isentropic ascent to sustain very-high-based updrafts
for at least a few hours. The weakly-forced synoptic environment
will keep coverage in check, with storms diminishing near or prior
to 10/05Z. Locally strong wind gusts near 50 mph and brief, heavy
rainfall will be the primary hazards with storms. The severe weather
threat is low Saturday evening and night.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A temporary pattern change is forecast Sunday through the early part
of next week. The subtropical ridge is forecast to collapse, as the
once basal troughing over the central Rocky Mountains amplifies
following the arrival of a sharply meridional 250 mb trough that
broadens in the mid-levels. The synoptic cold front, which is
currently located north of the I-80 corridor, will continue to move
southward into the CWA Sunday afternoon. Negative geopotential
height tendencies, along with a southwesterly component to the weak
steering flow, in addition to the arrival of the leading shortwave
trough atop the uncapped airmass and cold front should result in the
genesis of at least scattered storms across a large portion of the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Greater coverage of storms will be
focused along the cold front, and NBM PoPs have been maintained with
this cycle, with the highest PoPs delineated across the northwestern
zones. A few strong-to-severe-caliber wind gusts and torrential
rainfall will accompany organized storms, with the potential for
slow-moving, multi-cellular line segments to anchor along the cold
front. Highly localized flash flooding will be possible Sunday
evening and night, and it is possible that storms last into the
nighttime hours into Monday morning.

Prospects for storms remain forecast through Wednesday morning, with
the greatest chances Monday, as broadly cyclonic flow persists while
the troughing slowly deamplifies. Large-scale forcing for ascent
will be at a minimum; however, residual mesoscale boundaries from
the convection Sunday night would serve as foci for thunderstorm
initiation within the uncapped airmass. High temperatures will be
around 7-10 degrees cooler Monday, but with rich boundary-layer
moisture (e.g., lower-middle 60 degree dewpoints), it will not take
much for high-based cu to bubble and reach the LFC. Beyond Monday,
storm chances are set to gradually diminish following the
restoration of subtropical ridging and the related geopotential
height rises suppressing storms. Dry and hot weather is forecast
through the remainder of next week.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR with occasionally gusty southerly winds until sunset. By late
Saturday afternoon, a few high-based TS are possible mainly NW of a
LBB-PVW line.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
038-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93