673
FXUS64 KLUB 032331
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
631 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
   tonight through Friday morning, with a few severe storms
   possible off the Caprock.

 - Cold, blustery, wet and snowy weather Saturday with some
   accumulating snowfall expected.

 - Quiet weather begins Sunday with a warming trend next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Early afternoon water vapor channel imagery highlights broad
mid/upper level troughing encompassing most of the western CONUS,
with the center of said trough axis positioned roughly N-S through
MT/WY/UT/AZ at 19z. East of this trough axis, a belt of strong
southwesterly flow aloft continues over most of NM and TX above
moist easterly flow from the surface up to about 800mb. A stubborn
band of rain over eastern NM into the SW TX Panhandle has persisted
through most of the day so far, and although it has contracted in
size a bit over the past couple of hours, chances for light rain
will continue in this area through this evening with mainly dry
conditions across the rest of the forecast area during the remaining
daylight hours.

Rain chances will increase once again after sunset this evening with
scattered to numerous showers and storms expected overnight. Models
are in good agreement depicting a band of rain first developing over
the SW TX Panhandle and western South Plains near or just after
midnight as a well defined upper level jet streak rounds the base of
the broader trough axis. An additional batch of showers and
thunderstorms are then expected to develop over much of the rest of
the region a few hours later as low/midlevel lift becomes more
pronounced as moist southerly flow centered around the 700mb layer
strengthens. Given the cool and fairly stable surface layer,
overnight convection will be mostly or entirely elevated. However,
model soundings do indicate enough instability (MUCAPE near 1000
J/kg) and bulk shear magnitudes of 50+ kt to support a threat for a
couple of severe storms overnight off the Caprock. This threat is
expected to be most pronounced to our south and east, but a discrete
cell or two capable of producing golf ball size hail will be
possible overnight across southern portions of the Rolling Plains.
Although most locations across the forecast area are expected to see
at least some measurable rainfall tonight through early Friday
morning, the heaviest totals are likely to position near the TX/NM
state line and off the Caprock, with a local minimum in rainfall
totals possible along the I-27 corridor.

On Friday, morning convection is expected to largely diminish by
about midday as midlevel flow veers more southwesterly, with a band
of stratiform rain likely to continue near the TX/NM state line into
the early afternoon hours similar to today. A relative lull in
precipitation is then expected during much of the second half of the
day, though a few isolated to scattered showers will remain possible
essentially anywhere across our region. Temperatures Friday will
remain relatively cool as low cloud cover persists, with highs
mainly in the 50s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A cold, windy, wet/snowy day remains in store for Saturday as the
southwestern CONUS storm system begins to rotate to the east-
northeast across the Big Bend Saturday morning and then quickly
northeastward across the Big Country and Rolling Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. The biggest question remains, at least as far
as snow (and heavy snow) potential is whether the low lifts out
across northwest Texas as a closed low with a mature deformation
axis and associated heavier precipitation or, as the ECMWF and WRF-
NAM have been showing at times over the last few runs, as an opening
and shearing system. Continue to favor the seemingly more coherent
GFS solution, but at some point it will open to catch the coattails
of the northern stream trough moving across southern Canada and the
upper Mississippi Valley. Regardless, precipitation chances continue
to look categorical, i.e., 90-100 percent, in the Friday night
through Saturday time frame. The QPF/snow amount forecast generally
favors the GFS but with some reduced confidence due to the potential
for the more open/sheared solution. The heaviest snowfall continues
to be forecast for the northwestern corner of the forecast area
where temperatures will be the coldest and snowfall duration the
longest. Current forecast paints 2 to 4 inches across Parmer County
with a more gradual gradient to the southeast from there. Meanwhile
the potential exists for a band of heavier snow to set up across a
portion of the South Plains in an ideal scenario where a mature
system lays down a healthy deformation axis over the forecast area.
Given the uncertainties will hold off a Winter Storm Watch for one
more shift to see if any clarity can be obtained with the 00Z model
run. These systems, even the more sheared ones, tend to hang onto
precip longer than expected, so am pleased to see the NBM increase
PoPs some through the evening hours Saturday. Have again made a few
adjustments to Saturday low and high temperatures with the
expectation for a narrow diurnal range given the cold advection and
precipitation/cloud cover.

The forecast quickly becomes quiet behind the departing storm system
with fair weather and a warming trend forecast. Temperatures stay
cool on Sunday before heights and thicknesses increase as a ridge
builds over the western Mexico and the Desert Southwest early in the
week which then shifts slowly eastward with time as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A variety of weather is expected for at least the next 24 hours.
Persistent easterly to northeasterly winds will continue to allow
moisture to move into the region. Low CIGS are expected to develop
late tonight into early Friday morning likely dropping into IFR
criteria. A strong upper level storm system approaching the
region may bring periods of rainfall to the KLBB and KPVW
terminals while bringing isolated thunder chances to KCDS. The
precipitation activity will also bring lowered visbys as well.
Precipitation is expected to end mid Friday morning with minor
improvements to CIGS/visbys.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01