396
FXUS64 KLUB 222007
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - Warm, dry and slightly breezy conditions this weekend.

 - A cold front Monday will kick start the cooler trend for next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Quiet conditions are expected to continue tonight through tomorrow.
The axis of the upper ridge just to our west will push eastward
towards the FA tonight before being nearly overhead by late tomorrow
morning. A weakness in the upper ridge is still expected to pass
overhead during this time, but it will have little effect on surface
conditions. Persistent surface lee troughing will keep winds out of
the southwest tonight and tomorrow. Though winds will be light, they
will help to keep overnight lows near to a degree or two warmer than
this morning`s lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Warm through the weekend and cooling into next week looks to be the
main story of the long term period. Northwest flow aloft is expected
to become more zonal by the beginning of the period as a shortwave
trough tracks through SK which will work to flatten and push the
upper level ridge to the east. A surface trough in the lee of the
Rockies will prevail and dig southward through the Southern Plains
on Sunday. This will lead to breezy southwesterly winds around 10 to
20 mph, which in combination with sunny skies and increased
thickness and height values will lead to high temperatures above
seasonal normals in the mid to upper 70s, and even near 80 degrees
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Thankfully the above
normal temperatures will not last long as the surface low ejects to
the east Sunday night, making way for a cold front to push through
our area Monday. Model guidance currently projects the front making
its way into our northern counties by mid-morning Monday pushing its
way completely through by the late afternoon hours. Behind the
front, northerly winds will remain rather light around 10 to 15 mph
with the strongest winds fixated across areas east of I-27.
Overnight temperatures will be nearly 10 to 15 degrees cooler
compared to previous nights as the surface high pushes southward and
ushers in the much cooler canadian airmass from the north. This will
lead to temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with temperatures
likely below freezing for areas across the Caprock. Tuesday will be
slightly warmer but near seasonal normals, as southwest surface
winds quickly return as a surface trough develops in southeastern
CO. As we head into the overnight hours Tuesday, a lee cyclone is
expected to develop as the upper level trough that has been
stationary over the PacNW the past few days finally ejects eastward
into the Intermountain West. Both ensemble and deterministic
guidance keeps this as an open wave/ positively tilted trough as it
scoots into the Central and Southern Plains Thanksgiving Day. This
will then swing an additional cold front across the FA early
Thursday morning, with temperatures forecasted about 15 degrees
cooler than previous days.  At this time, this front looks to remain
dry given the lack there of moisture present. However, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty between the GFS (more moist) and the
ECMWF (drier) so depending on which model becomes more consistent
over the next few days will give better knowledge in regards to
precipitation on Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51