591
FXUS64 KLUB 061627
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

 - Hot and dry early this week with record highs possible
   Wednesday.

 - Storm chances arrive Wednesday night and Thursday, with
   additional chances later in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The center of a broad 500 mb high was poised over the far southern
TX Panhandle late this morning, while its 700 mb counterpart was
parked in southeast Kansas. The latter feature is why a segment of
monsoonal moisture remains draped over the western TX Panhandle this
morning in relatively moist SW flow. Despite this moisture lingering
near our NW counties, it now appears stronger subsidence will win
out today and suppress storm development, so PoPs were removed.
Little change unfolds tonight and Labor Day as the aforementioned
highs remain in their usual locations with no notable change in
intensity. Both min and max temps will remain a solid 5-10 degrees
above normal across the board under mostly clear skies with
occasionally gusty afternoon southerlies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

High temps creep up beginning Tuesday as the H5 high amplifies to
around 596 dam squarely over the forecast area. Not until Wednesday
does this high flatten and split into two entities - one taking aim
on the Desert Southwest with the other heading for the Ozarks.
Regardless, our high temps remain toasty as the H7 high along with
drier air at the top of the mixing layer arrives overhead. The
latest NBM has warmed and now puts Wednesday`s record high of 102
at Childress in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Lubbock`s record high for
this day is 99 which is also within reach. There is also a signal
for convective outflows and/or a weak cold front to reach portions
of the southern TX Panhandle late in the day Wednesday. These
boundaries along with steady cooling aloft from weak height falls
supports 20-40 PoPs from Wednesday evening through Thursday.

Ensemble spread regarding a zonal H5 ridge axis remains a concern
for Friday and Saturday as models are struggling with this
feature and its impact on any additional PoPs for these two days.
By late in the weekend, global models are in decent agreement with
a trough lifting out from the Great Divide while spreading lower
heights our way. NBM`s PoPs capture some of this unsettled pattern
beginning Saturday night, before a potentially wetter and cooler
signal brews late next weekend and beyond as southwest flow aloft
aligns with a cold front and monsoonal moisture.

&&14

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR with occasionally gusty southerly winds later this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93