360
FXUS64 KLUB 221717
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1117 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - Temperatures in the middle 60s today with light, southerly
   winds.

 - Warm, dry and slightly breezy conditions this weekend.

 - A cold front Monday will kick start the cooler trend for next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 135 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Benign weather is expected throughout the next 24 hours as the CWA
remains beneath a shortwave ridge that is sandwiched between two
large, baroclinic lows over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean and
the Middle Atlantic region. The cross-barrier flow rounding the apex
of this shortwave ridge has generated orographically-enhanced cirrus
bands that have, and will continue, to advect southeastward from the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and over the CWA throughout the remainder
of the day. The veered flow at 700 mb will also maintain a deep warm
nose, which will cap mixing heights below 5 kft AGL today and
prevent warmer temperatures from coming to fruition. Weak surface
troughing anchored along the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment will
keep the light, southerly winds intact today before veering towards
the southwest later tonight. Low temperatures on Saturday will be a
couple of degrees warmer than this morning, though still chilly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Zonal flow aloft will persist this weekend with a leeward surface
trough strengthening in Montana and stretching as far south as the
New Mexico and Texas state line. Thus, breezy warm downsloping winds
will dominate the forecast area this weekend and bring temperatures
well above normal for this time of year. Highs Saturday and Sunday
are forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal with a few
areas off the Caprock approaching the 80 degree mark on Sunday. A
surface low will develop Sunday on the leeward side of the Northern
Rockies with a passing shortwave aloft. The low will eject east
Sunday night and bring a cold front south across the forecast area
Monday. Following the front will be a dry and cold Canadian airmass
as the surface high digs into the Southern Plains. Highs Monday will
be nearly 15 to 25 degrees colder than Sunday, but this will bring
temperatures back to near normal. By Tuesday, the cyclone that has
been nearly stationary and spinning over the Pacific Northwest will
finally eject eastward. Models are consistent with it developing
into a positively tilted open wave trough as it slides southeast
across the western half of the CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday. Lee
troughing Tuesday will give way to a return of downsloping surface
winds and temperatures remaining near seasonable in the lower to mid
60s. As the upper trough axis approaches the Rockies, lee
cyclogenesis will develop Tuesday night across southeast Colorado
and northeast New Mexico. Slight model discrepancies in the timing
of the upper trough will play a key role in the exact timing of the
next cold front. In general, another cold front is expected to bring
a cold Canadian airmass with below normal temperatures likely for
Thanksgiving Day. There is a medium (30-50%) chance for high
temperatures at or below 50 degrees next Thursday. Any chance for
precipitation with this second front cannot be ruled out yet with a
wide variety of ensemble guidance solutions regarding the presence
of moisture in the atmosphere with the system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...51