019
FXUS64 KLUB 021116
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Cooler temperatures with daily thunderstorm chances through the end
  of the week and into the weekend.

- Some locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A quiet night should be in order with diminishing SE winds and mild
lows generally in the mid 60s. There remains little change in the
large-scale pattern from previous forecasts. An upper low will
become cutoff and gradually track southward along the California
coast. As it moves farther south through the day on Tuesday, upper
level SW flow will develop and more Pacific moisture will be
advected into our area. SE flow will also aid in saturating the
lower levels. That all said, forcing will be lacking during the day
and it will take some time for aforementioned saturation to occur.
Much of the day will see partly cloudy skies and highs in the low-to-
mid 90s. A shortwave along with a low level jet will approach by
late Tuesday evening and both CAMs and synoptic models showing
precipitation beginning from west to east early Wednesday morning.
Rain/storms should persist through much of the day. Highs will
significantly cool into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The upper low will stall over central Baja California Thursday,
persisting the favorable wet pattern, although amounts may be lesser
overall than Wednesday. It remains difficult to specify exact
amounts, however a general 1-2" is possible with locally higher
amounts over the two days. The low will begin to slowly track
northeastward by Friday. Models are generally consistent from
yesterday and if this track were to hold, best chances of showers
and thunderstorms would be mostly off the Caprock Friday through
Sunday with the exception of late Saturday into early Sunday morning
when the low moves directly overhead. A strong ridge looks to build
over the western US by early next week. Afternoon storm chances may
persist off the Caprock with shortwaves propagating around its
periphery.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR and modest southeast winds will prevail through today.
Probability of thunder during the daytime hours is very low,
although an isolated TS or two will be possible after 20z. After
sunset, a complex of TSRA is expected to push eastward out of New
Mexico and approach the terminals late tonight. However, confidence
in timing and impacts is still too low for TAF mention at this time,
and this will be addressed in later issuances.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30