574
FXUS64 KLUB 242317
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

 - Hot temperatures continue Tuesday with temperatures cooling
   gradually through the week.

 - Elevated fire conditions expected Monday afternoon with breezy
   southwesterly winds and low RH values.

 - Thunderstorm chances every evening through Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

One aspect of the forecast currently going as planned is hot
temperatures. There is a remnant outflow boundary draped across
our northwestern and northern zones that is keeping some cloud
cover around and is even producing highly isolated and shallow
rain showers. This has helped to keep temperatures in this region
somewhat cooler than expected. While this may keep some sites from
reaching Heat Advisory level. This boundary will likely be the
source for convective development during the late afternoon/early
evening. Storm coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered
given hot and dry conditions, though this will also increase the
potential for strong wind gusts.

The upper high will begin its slow westward trek early Tuesday and
will continue through the day Tuesday. This will help drop highs to
below advisory level for areas on the Caprock and drop highs from
warning down to advisory level off the Caprock. This will also be
the start of better storm chances especially across our northwest
and northern zones. Convection is expected to develop across the
higher terrain of north-central New Mexico in the late afternoon
and travel southeastward through the evening. Questions remain on
how far south and east convection will travel before being outran
by outflow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The upper high will continue its slow westward trek Wednesday before
eventually settling over the Desert Southwest by late week. This
will both allow for temps to gradually cool through the week and
bring higher rain chances. The first good chance for rain comes late
Wednesday. Models are in good agreement with a shortwave trough
bringing a cold front across the central CONUS and through the FA by
late Wednesday morning. The front is still in place just to our west
as a weakness rotates around the upper high and helps convection
develop. Remnants of this front remain in the area through late
week and remain a source for daily thunderstorm chances across the
FA. Unfortunately rain chances look to mostly come to an end by
the weekend as the upper high moves back over Texas as it
transits towards the southeast CONUS. While this will bring some
increase in temperatures, the upper high will not be as strong as
it is today (Monday).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR and generally light winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>030-
033>036-039>041.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-
031-032-037-038-042>044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19