960
FXUS64 KLUB 191936
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
236 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Water vapor channel imagery highlights a broad upper ridge centered
over northern Mexico gradually expanding northward early this
afternoon, resulting in a continued lack of any features of interest
aloft over West Texas. Surface moisture remains relatively
impressive over most of our area, especially off the Caprock where
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s at 19z, and this has allowed
development of a small cumulus field over the southeastern TX
Panhandle. We still expect convective growth today to be constrained
by a dramatic increase in mid and upper level subsidence associated
with the expansion of aforementioned ridging aloft. A few very
isolated small showers are certainly possible through the rest of
the afternoon given strong heating and the moist low levels, but
will still run with sub-mentionable PoPs given the expected low
coverage and limited duration with convection fading quickly after
sunset and another quiet and relatively humid night expected
tonight. On Friday, the closed upper low off the CA coast will begin
to accelerate eastward with the upper ridge progged to contract
southeastward compared to today. A few showers may sneak into the
far southwestern TX Panhandle Friday afternoon and evening, but for
now it still looks like most precipitation will stay west of the
TX/NM state line on Friday in closer proximity to more robust
midlevel moisture. Given only very modest height falls on Friday,
temperatures will be similar to today with highs ranging from the
low 90s near the TX/NM state line to the low 100s across the far SE
TX Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An active weather pattern is still in the cards for this weekend
representing more of a spring like pattern. A strong closed low
affecting the area this weekend was currently moving southeastward
along the California coastline. The center of this system will make
it as far south as 33N before ejecting out to the northeast on
Friday. During our time of interest on Saturday, this system will be
moving northeastward around the four-corners. The bulk of the lift
from this system will be ejecting out over Colorado into the Texas
Panhandle with the tail end of large scale ascent into West Texas.
Models prog a 100kt or so jet streak over northeastern New Mexico on
Saturday afternoon spreading strong wind divergence aloft over the
area from mid to late afternoon. A dryline will tighten up in the
afternoon but will likely remain over eastern New Mexico and not mix
eastward given the upper low position near the four corners.
Therefore, the best low level convergence will remain over eastern
New Mexico through the afternoon. This will also be the preferred
point of convective initiation as a strong axis of higher theta-e air
surges northward along and east of the dryline. The axis of highest
instability will therefore be in eastern New Mexico close to the
Texas/New Mexico state line. Current values from models indicate
between 1000 and 1500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE becoming uncapped by
mid-afternoon just as the large scale ascent spreads over the region.
Instability will weaken farther to the east which brings some
uncertainty in how far east the convective activity will reach.
Given the amount of instability expected along with increasing deep
layer shear, storms will have the potential to become severe with
damaging winds as the primary threat and marginally severe hail and
heavy rain/flooding as secondary threats.

A cold front will be positioned to our north on Saturday and will
make its way southward on Sunday. Latest model solutions have slowed
the front down pushing it through mostly during the afternoon. Weak
large scale ascent will remain overhead on Sunday as the upper low
pushes through Colorado. The dryline will likely make some headway
eastward ahead of the front but should still result in warm juicy
air in the warm sector. Additional thunderstorms appear possible
ahead of the front and east of the dryline but the position of the
front bring doubts into how far north and west the chances of
thunder will extend. However, the best chances will most certainly
be across the Rolling Plains. Thunder chances will eventually come
to an end once the front clears the area late Sunday into early
Monday morning. Rain and thunderstorm chances will be renewed by
Tuesday as the next short wave trough dives southward through the
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR will continue at all sites through this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30