173
FXUS64 KLUB 261707
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

 - Triple digit high temperatures and dry conditions expected
   through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Another hot day remains in store for today. Current water vapor
imagery shows upper ridging parked over much of CONUS. Thickness
increases due to the upper ridging will increase temperatures to
triple digits across the forecast area. Current surface temperatures
of 80s will increase to 100-105 degrees later this afternoon. With
decent dewpoints (~upper 50s-lower 60s), especially off the Caprock,
the heat index could reach up to 108 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling
Plains from 1 PM to 9 PM today. Current surface observations
indicate southerly winds from the southwest. Light to moderate south
to southwesterly winds will prevail the rest of today, overnight, as
well as through Monday. Tonight will be quiet and pleasant with lows
in the 70s across the region. Monday will be a rinse and repeat of
today. The persistent upper ridging will remain over much of the
CONUS. Thickness increases will warm highs to triple digits again.
With high temperatures around Heat Advisory level (105-109 degrees),
a Heat Advisory has been issued for the far southern Texas
Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from 1 PM to 9PM CDT
Monday. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep precipitation
chances near zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Sadly, the triple digit temperatures and dry conditions are not done
with us yet. The stubborn upper ridging will remain over the region
through at least the end of the work week. This regime will keep
highs near Heat Advisory temperatures with the hottest days looking
to be Thursday and Friday. Highs on Wednesday and Friday will be
close to tying the record high at both KLBB and KCDS. Wednesday
forecasted highs are 101 degrees at KLBB and 104 degrees at KCDS
with record highs of 102 degrees set in 19848 and 104 degrees set in
1934, respectively. As for Friday, the forecast highs are 104
degrees at KLBB and 106 degrees at KCDS with record highs of 106
most recently set in 1957 and 2012 most recently set in 2012,
respectively. Subsidence from the upper ridging and little moisture
will keep conditions dry. An upper pattern change next weekend will
cool temperatures, albeit only slightly, as well as possible
precipitation chances. Models indicate an upper trough will dig
south across eastern CONUS later in the week, effectively pushing
the upper ridging west towards the Desert Southwest. The eastern
edge of the ridging will remain over the region keeping
temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. However, some embedded
shortwaves will break the dry spell.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR will continue through the TAF period. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>044.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025-026-031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01