441
FXUS64 KLUB 052327
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe weather remains possible through this evening with the
   potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

 - Severe thunderstorm chances remain forecast each afternoon from
   Friday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Skies will continue to clear through the afternoon and a potential
significant severe weather setup will commence. Uncertainty still
exists with regards to exact timing, particularly as models have
performed poorly this morning. Nonetheless, a warm front continues
to lift northward near the I-20 corridor and a LLJ will gradually
develop over our area through the day. Moisture parameters remain
impressive, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and average
PWATs around 1.75". Perhaps most notable is the pronounced low-level
veering indicated on many of the forecast soundings. This would
suggest the potential for spinning supercells and hence tornadoes.
Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain are all in play as well.
While storm placement will depend on where the boundary sets up, the
most likely scenario at this time are for storms to develop along
near the TX/NM border and generally track eastward through the
evening. Convective activity will begin to diminish after sunset
with overcast skies persisting overnight due to lingering moisture.
An upper wave will track across the area Friday afternoon/evening.
Combined with moist low-level SE flow, storms are again expected to
develop. While severe parameters are generally not as high as today,
a strong potential still exists for similar hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Not much has changed with the long term forecast. The upper high
to our south will amplify and flatten east to west Saturday. This
will keep zonal upper flow through much of the weekend. The upper
high will then retrograde until it is over the eastern Pacific early
next week. Models had originally developed a blocking pattern with
the upper high with an upper trough currently across the Pacific
Northwest, but they have abandoned this outcome for the time being.
Northwesterly upper flow will take hold Sunday into at least late
Tuesday as the upper high moves westward and an upper trough
associated with an upper low over the Great Lakes amplifies. This
will allow for daily afternoon storm chances. While severe storms
will be possible each afternoon, the largest threat will be damaging
wind and heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions with periods of MVFR will occur at all three
terminals as showers and thunderstorms continue to move through
the area this evening. Impacts expected through 04Z. Low MVFR to
IFR conditions could return to all of the terminals around 12Z,
but confidence of this developing and lasting for an extended
period of time is too low to include in the forecast at this
time. Winds will remain west between 10-15kt through 10Z Friday,
then drop to the 5 to 10 kt range.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...28