209
FXUS64 KLUB 101750
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1250 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 - Scattered showers and storms diminishing tonight ahead of
   slight chances for Friday afternoon.

 - Hotter Friday into the weekend, including record highs on
   Saturday, before a subtle cool down next week with daily rain
   chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An outflow boundary and cold front were making ample headway south
through the forecast area as of noon, and at its current pace should
stall close to the I20 corridor later today. In its wake, scattered
showers and a few storms are on track to continue redeveloping as a
shortwave trough in NW flow moves out of the southern TX Panhandle.
The NSSL-WRF CAM is one of the few CAMs handling the boundary and
storm coverage the best thus far, so PoPs were refined to focus the
highest chances this afternoon in the southern Rolling Plains with
an axis trailing back to the northwest. Even though the best low-
level convergence and hottest temps are exiting to our south with
the boundary, richer dewpoints to the north are fueling stronger
MLCAPEs of around 1500 J/kg, so the environment will be supportive
of a few strong or marginally severe storms later today into this
evening before convection wanes after midnight. Northwest flow
typically favors upslope convection developing along the higher
terrain of northeast NM that tracks southeast along a theta-e
gradient, and this pattern is present tonight which is why we`ll
keep some PoPs on the Caprock through 06Z.

Northwest flow lingers through Friday complete with a few embedded
disturbances. One of these impulses may team with a 30 knot
southerly LLJ early in the morning and bolster isentropic ascent for
elevated showers and some storms. Temps at H7 will undergo steady
warming over much of the Caprock ahead of an approaching upper high
for the weekend, so this should serve to curb afternoon precip
chances across our westernmost zones, while a narrow N-S gradient
emerges farther east supportive of a 10% thunder mention. Southerly
winds and warming thicknesses will push high temps back in the upper
90s to around 100 across the board.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

No major changes are apparent with the latest cycle, so the previous
forecast discussion follows. A strong upper ridge will again build
over the region on Saturday leading in part to more potential record
breaking temperatures with highs in the low-to-mid triple digits.
Height falls Sunday will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees
but they will remain well above average for this time of year. An
upper trough over the northern Great Plains on Monday will help to
displace the aforementioned ridge and lead to potential storm
chances over the far southwest Panhandle. Large-scale models
indicate a relatively stronger cold front moving through in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame bringing more widespread storm chances
and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR outside of ISO-SCT SHRA and TS which should wind down
after midnight. NE winds behind an outflow boundary currently
passing through LBB will veer southeast tonight and remain light.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93