216
FXUS64 KLUB 020504
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1204 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

 - Light frost may be possible in the extreme southwestern Texas
   Panhandle Saturday morning.

 - Temperatures will warm this weekend and through the week with
   mostly dry conditions. A slight chance of storms is possible
   Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Skies will gradually clear overnight tonight, especially off the
Caprock, as today`s system departs to the east. Along with light
northerly winds, chilly lows are expected, falling into the mid 30s
across the northern South Plains and far SW Panhandle. Winds will
switch out of the SW during the day Saturday, but remain very light.
Nonetheless, highs will recover from today, generally reaching the
low-to-mid 70s. Quiet conditions will persist overnight into Sunday.
An upper ridge axis and increase SW surface flow to near 20 mph will
bring highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.
In short, will be a great weekend to get outdoors!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Shortwaves moving over the Rockies will lead to the development of
low pressure to our north and consequently more breezy westerly
winds across the area Monday. Temperatures will further warm as a
result with highs in the mid 80s on the Caprock and mid 90s off the
Caprock. Some thicker cirrus may develop, but otherwise no
precipitation is expected. A stronger upper low will dig into the
Rockies on Tuesday. As it transitions from being cutoff over central
California to merging with the main flow pattern, it will become
very positively tilted and much of the best PVA/forcing will
therefore be well downstream of its axis outside of our area.
However, if it tracks far enough south, we could see an increase in
SW moisture advection and along with favorable upper/lower jet
dynamics over portions of the area, convective development cannot
completely be ruled out. As of now, this would generally favor the
far southern Panhandle, however confidence remains low. NBM
dewpoints remain around 40. Winds will veer northerly Wednesday and
temperatures will be slightly cooler. The aforementioned trough will
finally completely move trough the area by evening and some
lingering backside showers may be possible over the far southern
Panhandle. A ridge thereafter looks to keep conditions dry into late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period with light winds swinging
around to the southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01