834
FXUS64 KLUB 241732
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - The hottest day of the week is expected today with
   temperatures climbing into the triple digits across some areas.

 - Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop
   late this afternoon along and east of I-27 where they will
   track east through the late evening.

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout
   the upcoming week, with severe storms possible each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The hottest day of the week looks to be shaping up this afternoon
with yet another day of warm temperatures and slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon. Zonal flow aloft will begin to shift
out of the southwest this morning as an H5 trough translates through
the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile at the surface, low-level moisture
will continue to advect into the region with southerly winds noted
from the surface to mid-levels. A weak front, currently located
across southwestern KS this morning, will race southward through the
early morning hours where it looks to stall north of the FA this
afternoon, with a surface low positioned south of the front just
across the TX/NM state line. This will lead to predominately
southwest surface winds for areas across the Caprock, which combined
with strong insolation and increased thickness values across the
area will lead to temperatures in the mid 90s to lower triple digits
this afternoon. Not only will these downsloping winds influence hot
temperatures this afternoon, but they will also work to sharpen the
dryline across eastern NM to near the I-27 corridor by the late
afternoon. East of the dryline, moist southeasterly surface winds
will help increase dewpoints into the upper 50s to low 60s,
contributing to the development of an increasingly unstable
airmass. Forecast soundings across this area indicate a well-mixed
boundary layer, and with convective Ts expected to be reached
early on in the day with the front positioned north of the FA, any
residual capping inversion should erode, allowing for thunderstorm
development across areas along and east of the I-27 corridor.
Steep lapse rates, sufficient deep layer shear, and MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/kg suggest that storms that develop may quickly
become severe with primary hazards being golf ball size hail and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. While the tornado threat remains
low this afternoon, it cannot be entirely ruled out near any
remnant boundaries that track through the region. Storms will
decrease in coverage shortly after midnight, with partly cloudy
skies and mild overnight lows in the 60s and 70s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Very few changes to the extended forecast with a cooler and still
active weather pattern expected to persist through much of the
upcoming week. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen on Sunday as the
upper ridge in place over central TX today flattens and moves
eastward ahead of a deepening mid/upper trough over the Four
Corners. The evolution of the surface pattern remains the biggest
forecast challenge for Sunday, as it is still uncertain how
today`s convection will play a role in how far south an outflow
enhanced surface frontal boundary will move southward across our
region. Current model consensus places this boundary over northern
portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains by Sunday
afternoon, with a dryline extending southward along the I-27
corridor. Robust thunderstorm development is expected within the
moist sector east of the dryline and along/south of the front by
late Sunday afternoon as strong heating erodes capping beneath a
well-defined EML and a shortwave disturbance within the SW flow
aloft moves northeastward over eastern NM. Forecast soundings
depict plentiful instability with MUCAPEs likely exceeding 2000
J/kg, and although midlevel flow will be relatively modest, bulk
shear magnitudes will likely exceed 30 kt which should support at
least a few rotating storms. Storm coverage on Sunday is expected
to be highest over northeastern portions of our forecast area,
with lesser coverage with southward and westward extent. All
severe hazards are possible on Sunday including damaging wind
gusts, large or very large hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two.
The tornado threat on Sunday currently looks highest over the SE
TX Panhandle or northern Rolling Plains, where backed low level
flow will be strongest during the evening hours. As mentioned
before, Sunday`s convective evolution is tied to the positioning
of the surface boundaries which is still quite uncertain at this
time.

On Monday, flow aloft will become more zonal as the above-mentioned
upper trough axis exits eastward. Surface flow is expected to remain
largely easterly through most of the day, with some indication that
weak troughing over NM may sharpen a dryline over our area by
afternoon. Upper level forcing for ascent appears weaker on Monday
compared to Sunday, but continued robust instability and shear
parameters may support some additional severe thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening especially off the Caprock. More of the same
is expected on Tuesday as a similar surface pattern evolves, but
with storm chances expanding farther west as the dryline takes
shape near the TX/NM state line. It is worth noting that confidence
on storm development, coverage, and severity both Monday and Tuesday
is highly uncertain and will depend in large part on remnant
boundaries from prior day convection which are still unresolvable
at this lead time. But given the ensemble consensus, broad SChc-
Chc PoPs still look reasonable each day at this time. Forecast
confidence on Wednesday and beyond is also low with models
continuing to differ on the evolution of the upper level pattern.
In general, deterministic consensus suggests that flow aloft will
probably remain quasi-zonal with embedded disturbances passing
overhead through the end of the week. With low level moisture
remaining in place, this supports maintaining thunderstorm chances
across the entire area each day through Friday. Any further details
are still unresolvable at this range, but ensemble consensus
currently favors the best potential for the most widespread storms
from late Wednesday into early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected other than in and near any TS that
develop this evening. Regarding TS potential, the dryline is being
dragged eastward as a surface low has developed vicinity of KCDS.
This will shift initial TS development to the east/southeast of
KLBB/KPVW early this evening. Potential exists for TS to develop
southwest of KCDS mid to late evening as moisture surges back
northward with that development possibly affecting KCDS late
evening. Will keep a TS mention in that TAF but remove from KLBB
and KPVW where chances have decreased.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07