Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
901 FXUS64 KLUB 020524 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Continued warm and dry until Wednesday evening when a cold front may spark a few thunderstorms. - Shower and storm chances expand Friday through Sunday with another cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Evening convection continues to steadily decrease in coverage and strength with only light rain showers remaining across eastern New Mexico. A remnant gust front is pushing southeastward across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Forward speed of the gust front is steadily decreasing and will likely stay along to west of I27. The rest of the night will remain quiet with lows dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Northerly upper flow will continue across the region today with an embedded upper shortwave bringing a very weak cold front through the FA by mid-day. Today`s highs will remain similar to Monday`s highs. A surface high will settle over the region tonight, keeping winds light. Coupled with clear skies, overnight lows will drop by a few degrees over this morning`s low with much of the Caprock dropping into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s across the Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 The extended forecast remains on track this morning, with northwest flow aloft prevailing through much of the period as a longwave trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS while an expansive ridge remains positioned across the western half of the US. As the upper level trough translates eastward, the associated surface low shifting through the Great Lakes region will push a front through the South Plains and into the Texas Panhandle region by late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Models are still not in good agreement with the evolution of this FROPA with models depicting a wide range of solutions of washing the front out across our northern row of counties, washing it out across the Southern Plains, while some models push the front through much of the FA by Thursday afternoon. As this front surges southward, lift associated with the front combined with dewpoints jumping into the 50s and 60s behind the front, will allow for increased PoPs late Wednesday evening through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. However, confidence in mid-week storms remains low given the run to run differences on the evolution of the frontal boundary. By Thursday, any cooler airmass that was brought to us from the FROPA will quickly be overturned, with a surface trough tracking into the Panhandle from eastern NM, along with forecast soundings showing a well-mixed boundary layer in place by Thursday afternoon. Therefore, only a slight change in temperatures is expected with a difference of maybe one to two degrees as highs remain in the low to mid 90s. The exception will be for some of our northeastern counties where winds remain out of the east-southeast as the area remains under the influence of the surface high parked over the OK/KS border, keeping highs in the upper 80s. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at our next bet chance of precipitation returning to the region by Friday through the weekend, as the deamplified upper level ridge shifts west as the upper level trough across the Canadian Provinces wobbles as an additional embedded vort maxima rotates around the center of the low. This feature will allow for another FROPA to surge southward into the region Friday, bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the region through the weekend as a series of shortwaves track through the southern periphery of the longwave trough. This along with the anticipation of increased monsoonal moisture into the region, thanks to the southwesterly flow present around the H3 to H7 levels will allow for precipitation chances to continue through much of the weekend with thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain. Decent northwest steering flow will likely allow any storms that develop to track into areas across the Caprock through the evening. One thing to note, models are beginning to also hint at a potential tropical disturbance to move in from Baja California, becoming absorbed into the main flow through the weekend. Depending on the evolution of this feature will play a major role in the amount of moisture return we see across the region this weekend. Due to the uncertainty and the fact this is still several days out, will go ahead and maintain NBM PoPs for the time being but adjustments may need to be made in the coming days. Regardless, thanks to the cooler airmass in place, chances for precipitation, and lingering cloud cover will help keep highs in the 80s for much of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Quiet weather with VFR conditions are expected. A cold front will move past the terminals around noon Tuesday with north to northeast winds increasing to at or above 11 kts. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...07