470
FXUS64 KLUB 282244
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
544 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

 - Hot temperatures expected through next week with the potential
   to reach Heat Advisory temperatures again.

 - No precipitation chances in sight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Storms from this morning have mostly dissipated. Once the shower
lingering over Castro County, no further thunderstorm activity is
expected for the rest of the day.

In the upper levels, a low will drop south from the coast of
Vancouver into the Pacific Northwest. This low will then track
eastward into Washington State, enhancing the ridging that is
currently stretched over the greater Midwest. The area of high
pressure currently centered over the Four Corners region will then
pull further east into the CWA by this evening, which will dry out
the region of any lingering moisture for the weekend.

A quiet overnight period is expected tonight, with light varying
winds and temperatures as low as 68 in the Far Southwestern Texas
Panhandle, and as high as 75 for areas in the Rolling Plains.

Warmer temperatures will return this weekend due to a slight
increase in the thickness heights, as well as a shift to
southwesterly winds by early morning Saturday that will prevail
throughout the day. Through the day Saturday, highs in the upper 90s
are expected on the Caprock, and lower 100s off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Sadly, the long term forecast looks to be hot and dry. The ever
persistent upper ridging will be well established over the region by
Saturday. The upper ridging will continue to expand east across the
Gulf states while multiple upper short waves move on shore over the
Pacific Northwest. Despite the push from these upper shortwaves, the
upper ridging will be stubborn and remain parked across southeastern
CONUS. Increasing heights and thicknesses below the ridging will
keep temperatures hot. Forecast highs everyday range from the upper
90s to just below Heat Advisory temperatures (105-109). NBM is
notorious for underestimating very hot temperatures for our region.
This forecaster would not be surprised if we saw Heat Advisory
temperatures sometime next week, especially off the Caprock. There
is no precipitation in sight as subsidence below the ridging will
keep conditions dry. A lee surface trough developing multiple days
next week could bring moderate to breezy winds each afternoon. Hot
temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoon winds will bring
the potential for elevated fire conditions next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Quiet weather prevails with mostly light winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93