Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
560 FXUS64 KLUB 041109 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 509 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 508 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 - Roller coaster of temperatures expected through the week with multiple cold fronts progged to track through the region. - Near-record high temperatures are forecast Thursday, with elevated fire weather conditions possible. - Much cooler weather is forecast Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 Upper ridging over eastern Texas had flattened considerably since Monday morning and is forecast to continue shearing W-E along the TX and LA coast through Tuesday afternoon. This will open the door to slightly stronger WSW winds aloft, higher thicknesses and more importantly a lee trough that spurs breezier downslope winds. Lubbock should come close to its record high of 88 as even drier dewpoints by the afternoon foster deeper mixing. Oddly, MOS keeps dewpoints on the moist side and as a result its high temps are the same or even cooler than Monday which does not fit this breezier downslope regime with increasing thicknesses. Much farther north meanwhile, an Alberta clipper will swing across the Dakotas and into the western Great Lakes resulting in a cold front reaching the far southern TX Panhandle toward daybreak Wednesday. No moisture with this front spells continued dry conditions. SW winds overnight will veer west while serving to keep lows on the milder side. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 The forecast for the extended period remains on track, and will feature three cold fronts moving through the CWA over the next seven days. At the beginning of the period, a sharply cyclonic, negatively- tilted trough will have ejected over the Pacific Northwest, while a compact, fast-moving, shortwave trough progresses over the Great Lakes region. A synoptic cold front will trail in the wake of the shortwave trough over the Great Lakes region, but the post-frontal airmass will become extensively modified by the time it arrives, with frontolysis already underway. Although CAA will weaken, a temperature gradient of around 10 degrees remains forecast area-wide Wednesday, with winds veering eastward after dusk. The combination of a clear sky and light winds will maximize the effects of radiational cooling by Thursday morning, with lows a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday. The shortwave ridge will be quick to progress over the Lower 48 Wednesday, as a cyclonic wave break associated with the ejection of the negatively-tilted trough completes over the Pacific Northwest and allows a lower-amplitude, shortwave trough to propagate over the Rocky Mountains. A northern-stream trough digging into Ontario will impinge on the shortwave trough emerging over the Rocky Mountains on Thursday, and will increase its concavity as it begins to phase with the closed low rotating over the James Bay. Winds for Thursday were once again raised from the NBM, as lee cyclogenesis occurs in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa and generates a moderate isallobaric response beneath the intense, cross-barrier flow aloft. West-southwesterly winds between 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30-35 mph, will be common, with the strongest winds advecting across the northwestern zones, or areas nearest the surface low. The combination of full insolation and the near-cardinal, westerly fetch will aid in strong, adiabatic warming of the airmass, with near-record to potentially record high temperatures forecast Thursday for Lubbock. A high of 87 degrees is currently forecast, and the record high is 87 degrees, which was set in 2023. The NBM appears to have the best handle on temperatures compared to the surprisingly cooler MOS, but additional upward adjustments to the highs Thursday may prove necessary. In the meantime, dewpoints were lowered substantially from the NBM due to the strong downsloping component to the winds. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop Thursday afternoon. Following the departure of the low-amplitude, shortwave trough, a fast-moving cold front, with a modified cP airmass trailing behind, will surge southward across the entire Great Plains and move through the CWA during the predawn hours Friday. High temperatures Friday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday, with winds becoming light by the evening hours, as a weak surface anticyclone settles into the region. The upper air pattern will remain semi-progressive heading into the weekend, with much stronger cold front CAA-wise forecast to move through the region Saturday afternoon, as global NWP guidance continues to indicate a longwave troughing evolving over the eastern half of the nation. The passage of this front is forecast to knock temperatures back down to or slightly below seasonal norms Sunday into Monday. Prospects for PoPs remain NIL. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51