492
FXUS64 KLUB 211721
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1221 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

 - Hotter temperatures ahead with daily Heat Advisories possible through
   this weekend, especially off the Caprock.

 - Continued dry outside of some storm chances Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Subsidence is set to deepen through Wednesday as a tall dome of high
pressure relocates from eastern Colorado to southwest Oklahoma. This
will advect even warmer temps our way with 850 mb temps rising about
3 deg C. NBM looks too soft with high temps in this pattern, so its
values were blended higher using the ADJMAV which favors another
Heat Advisory on Wednesday for most areas off the Caprock.

Prospects for moist convection and precip in this pattern are
almost nil; however, various CAMs suggest some pinhead showers by
Wednesday afternoon as SSW winds back more easterly keeping
dewpoints a few degrees higher than today. Despite this, the
chance of any measurable precip is still too low given such sparse
and high-based convection having to contend with deep subsidence
and 40-60 degree dewpoint depressions in the boundary layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The extended pattern shows little relief from the heat as the high
pressure dome wobbles anywhere from the southern High Plains into
the Four Corners. If there is any consolation, the H5 high is not
progged to reach 600 meters until late next week, so this should
keep our heat wave in the low-to-mid 100s with excessive heat (110
or hotter) restricted to isolated occurrences. Still, this pattern
of high heat, low relative humidity, and warmer overnight lows fits
the bill for a flash drought event that may severely stress area
crops. The only prospect for rainfall exists Friday evening and
overnight when the center of the high will be farthest west from the
area allowing a shortwave trough in northwest flow to impact the TX
Panhandle, perhaps even farther south. What storms do form won`t
have much steering flow available, so locally heavy rain would be in
the offing. Global guidance and ensembles suggest this lingering mid-
level moisture with any remnant MCVs could yield another round of
storms Saturday afternoon or evening, but the NBM is mostly dry
aside from a sliver of PoPs in the far southwest TX Panhandle.
Thereafter, the high rebuilds and elongates from the Four Corners to
the Red River while holding between 595 and 598 dam. This keeps our
highs in the low/mid 100s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies persist through the period.
Winds at KLBB/KPVW will generally be out of the south, while winds
at KCDS back from westerly at the start of the period to
southeasterly by mid-afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-043-044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...93