578
FXUS64 KLUB 221124
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
624 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - Dry and hot weather is expected through the weekend.

 - A strong cold front is forecast to arrive Tuesday, and will be
   accompanied by much cooler temperatures.

 - Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast area through most
   of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Strong subsidence associated with the subtropical ridge over the
Four Corners region will continue to advect into W TX throughout the
next 24 hours. SIGWX NIL.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, the subtropical ridge centered over the
Four Corners region will begin to deamplify Saturday, as a pair of
250 mb jet streaks will phase over the 49th parallel and begin to
dig southeastward into the Upper Midwest in congruence with the
development of a high-amplitude, longwave trough. A persistence
forecasting technique was once again applied to most elements for
Saturday and Sunday, with the exception of weak return flow becoming
established Sunday in response to leeward pressure falls associated
with lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO beneath the southwestern edge of
the aforementioned jet streak. Global NWP guidance continues to
converge on a cyclonic wave break event occurring over the northern
U.S. by Sunday. Cyclonically-breaking wave events occur in a realm
of higher frequencies relative to the anticyclonically-breaking
waves (i.e., several wavelets are forecast to emanate out of the
high-latitude extension of a Pacific jet streak). The southeastward
translation of these shortwave troughs will result in a significant
enhancement in the budget of negative momentum flux and cause the
phased jet streak to dig southward into the Ohio River Valley/Rust
Belt region, eventually evolving into a high-amplitude, longwave
trough. Farther west, the subtropical ridge will shift southward
while deamplifying in response to the development of the longwave
trough, and it is possible that the ridge collapses entirely by the
early part of next week.

Cyclonic wave breaks are notorious for generating intense surface
lows that ultimately drive very large isallobaric responses, and
global NWP guidance continues to indicate the potential development
of an upstream surface ridge between 1022-1028 mb across the
Canadian Prairies and into the northern Great Plains from Sunday
into Monday. The all-time record high sea-level-corrected pressure
values are in the 1032-1034 mb range across the northern Great
Plains and into southern Canada for 12Z Monday. NAEFS/ENS continue
indicate that the normalized pressure anomalies are nearly three
standard deviations above the climatological mean across those
regions, which has statistical significance for August. Intense
frontogenesis will occur at the surface through the mid-levels as
this longwave trough amplifies, and global NWP guidance has come
into slightly better agreement with the timing of the cold front
(i.e., sometime Tuesday compared to a difference of a day from 24
hours ago) that will have a heavily modifying cP airmass advecting
southward in its wake. The strength of the respective surface ridge
in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains will correspond
to the magnitude of baroclinity associated with the cold front.

Prior to the arrival of the polar cold front, high temperatures will
remain near seasonal norms, with substantially cooler temperatures
forecast by the middle of next week. The upstream effect of the
cyclonic wave break is forecast to cause a split-flow pattern to
develop over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean and into the western
U.S., allowing for shortwave perturbations to translate around
and/or through the dampened, subtropical ridge over the southern
Rocky Mountains. Prospects for showers and thunderstorms remain
intact and continue to be forecast throughout most of next week as
the cold front moves into the region and large-scale, moist,
isentropic ascent cements its return from persistent, northwesterly
flow aloft. Adjustments to the temperature forecast for next week
will be necessary as the synoptic-scale evolution occurs over the
next several days and NWP guidance becomes convergent.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51