700
FXUS64 KLUB 051110
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - Summer heat continues through the holiday weekend and into next
   week.

 - A few storms are possible mainly on the Caprock Saturday, with
   dry weather expected thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain fairly similar over the next 24
hours as the western edge of expansive upper ridging builds only
very slowly westward. It will therefore be another hot day to start
the holiday weekend as temperatures Saturday afternoon again reach
into the upper 90s and low 100s. Although the atmospheric column
will begin to dry out over the eastern half of the area, midlevel
moisture will remain relatively robust over much of the Caprock.
This should result in another round of isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening, but activity is likely to remain
focused within a diffuse surface trough near the TX/NM state line.
SChc PoPs have been maintained west of I-27, with a dry forecast
for areas east. Similar to the past few days, a few instances of
strong wind gusts and brief downpours will be possible before
storms dissipate near sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Beginning on Sunday, the center of the upper level ridge is progged
to position nearly directly overhead, which will keep precipitation
chances at zero through at least the middle of next week.
Temperatures will also remain well above normal during this period
with daily highs hovering in the 95-100F range, although we
currently expect to remain a few degrees below record-breaking
levels. The evolution of the ridging aloft becomes more uncertain
Wednesday and beyond, with some solutions hinting at a northward
retreat of the ridge axis which could re-introduce some low storm
chances by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
west of PVW and LBB this afternoon and evening. There is low
confidence in a storm affecting the terminals.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51