069
FXUS64 KLUB 300546
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

 - Warmer today with a few storms possible this afternoon and
   evening, mainly over the southern TX Panhandle.

 - Slightly cooler conditions are expected Thursday and Friday
   thanks to a weak cold front, before the return of hot
   temperatures through the weekend.

 - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
   end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The upper high will continue retrograding Wednesday, moving overhead
by late morning/early afternoon. This will help highs warm into the
mid/upper 90s on the Caprock and around 100 off the Caprock. An
upper shortwave trough will weaken the upper high slightly and will
help to keep temps from rising further. This upper trough will also
bring a cold front southward. The front will only make it as far
south as the central Texas Panhandle by Wednesday evening. Some
convection will also be possible along the front as it moves into
the Panhandle. Most of this convection should remain north of the
FA, but there is a slight chance for storms to move into our
northwestern zones by late Wednesday evening as the cold front
begins to push further southward into the South Plains and Rolling
Plains, the push being aided by storm outflow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Upper level ridging will continue to shift westward through the
start of the extended period, as an upper level low tracks through
the eastern Canadian territories, while a weak shortwave trough
begins moving through the western CONUS. As the upper ridge
deamplifies and retrogrades west, a cold front will move into the
region from the Central Plains. This will lead to slightly cooler
temperatures towards the end of the week. Unfortunately, this cool
down will be short lived with triple digit heat expected to return
by the end of the weekend.

By Thursday, the surface low over the Central Plains will begin to
translate east through the region allowing for the surface high to
track east into the southeastern US. Latest model guidance depicts
the associated cold front tracking into our northwestern counties by
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Which would allow
for a wide range of daytime highs come Thursday afternoon with highs
 ranging from the mid to upper 80s across our northwestern counties
into the upper 90s across the southeastern Rolling Plains. Any
lingering showers and thunderstorms from overnight Wednesday into
Thursday, along with the the upslope component to the wind should
help keep daytime highs slightly cooler, by limiting diurnal
heating. As previously mentioned, the environment is expected to
quickly recover with daytime highs returning back to near and/or
above normal by the weekend, as the surface high to our west begins
to amplify, increasing thickness values across the region and we see
the return of southwest flow at the H7 and H8 levels.

As for precipitation chances, monsoonal moisture wrapping around the
eastern periphery of the upper level high to our west, along with
perturbations tracking through the region will lead to daily chances
for showers and thunderstorm through Sunday afternoon. Generally
forming off the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico and with modest
northwest steering flow, we may see these storms tracking into areas
across the Caprock. The overall severe threat remains low at this
point in time given the lack of instability in place. However,
locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out given the inverted-v
nature of forecast soundings, with DCAPE values up to 1800 J/kg. By
the start of next week, drier conditions look to return as we see
the upper level ridge shift east, into the region, as an upper level
trough tracks through the PacNW.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. Some TS will be possible
after 21z, especially near LBB and PVW, but probability of
terminal impacts is too low for TAF mention.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30