696
FXUS64 KLUB 081129
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

- Scattered showers and storms will continue over portions of the
  southern TX Panhandle through the rest of this morning before
  drier conditions return this afternoon.

- One more relatively cool day today before a multi-day warming
  trend begins on Thursday.

- Possible elevated fire weather conditions arrive this weekend
  with warm temperatures and southerly breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Current radar imagery shows showers developing over central and
eastern New Mexico and tracking into our region. Showers are
expected to linger through the early morning hours as a result of a
weak nocturnal LLJ that has developed over western portions of the
region. A mid-level disturbance will track over the region through
late morning and afternoon hours keeping precipitation chances for
the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains
through this afternoon. A gradual warming from yesterday is expected
today, however mostly cloudy skies that dissipate from the southeast
to the northwest through the afternoon will give a wide range of
highs for today. Northwest portions of the CWA will see highs in the
lower 70s while southeast portions will see highs in the mid 80s.
Current surface observations show surface flow from the east. Winds
will continue to veer to the south in response to a lee surface
trough developing over Colorado. Tonight will be mild and quiet with
mostly clear skies. Lows will range from lower 50s over northwest
portions to lower 60s over southeast portions of the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Main focus for the long term package is the warmer temperatures and
breezy winds this weekend bringing fire weather concerns. After a
couple of days of seasonably normal temperatures, we will see a
gradual warming trend beginning Thursday. Upper level ridging will
be well established over the region by Thursday where models
indicate it will remain through Saturday. Heights and thicknesses
under the upper ridging will increase effectively warming
temperatures and keeping precipitation chances near zero with highs
increasing into the 80s to lower 90s. Upper troughing will track
onto western coast of the US by the early weekend. As the upper
trough overtakes most of western CONUS through the weekend, the
upper ridging will get squished over southeast Texas with our region
being sandwiched between the two upper disturbances bringing
southwesterly flow aloft. A deepening lee surface trough developing
over Colorado over the weekend will bring breezy south to
southwesterly winds to the region. In combination with warming
temperatures, fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday
and Sunday. Precipitation chances could possibly return early next
week with upper level moisture returning as models indicate a
tropical storm getting pulled into the southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

In the immediate term, a complex of TS near and north of PVW will
continue to shift slowly eastward through the rest of this
morning, but is currently not expected to impact any other
terminals. Otherwise, IFR to MVFR CIGs at PVW and LBB are
expected to persist through about midday. The exact timing of when
conditions improve later today is uncertain, but it currently
appears that all sites will return to VFR by 19z with VFR then
prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30