937
FXUS64 KLUB 291707
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

 - Triple digit heat continues through Friday with Heat Advisories
   in effect for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

 - Chances for precipitation return Thursday evening with
   widespread chances Friday through the weekend.

 - Slightly cooler this weekend, before warming back up next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Main theme of the short term forecast will be the continuation of hot
temperatures with heat Advisories looking to remain in place through
the end of the work week. Synoptically speaking, the upper level
ridge will continue to amplify across the western CONUS while
simultaneously an 597 dam upper level high centers itself along the
TX/NM state line. As geopotential heights and thickness values
increase across the region in response to the strengthening upper
high, we can expect the warming trend to continue. Across the
forecast area, 850 mb temperatures up to 32C Wednesday afternoon and
up to 35C Thursday afternoon, suggest heat advisory level heat will
be present. With Thursday looking to be one of the warmest, if not
the warmest, day of the week thanks to the H8 flow becoming more
south-southwesterly compared to south-southeasterly. As the boundary
layer looks to become well mixed by the afternoon, temperatures will
likely climb into the upper 90s to lower triple digits this
afternoon, while widespread triple digit heat is expected to develop
Thursday afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains from 1
PM this afternoon to 9 PM this evening. An additional Heat Advisory
is in effect for Thursday afternoon and evening for most areas Off
the Caprock as well.

As far as precipitation goes, it looks remain quiet across the area,
thanks to much of the monsoonal moisture being displaced by the
upper high remaining well to our north. However, compared to what we
saw last night, a few isolated showers will be possible through the
overnight hours if any outflow boundaries from up north can make
their way into the area. However, this is low confidence in this
playing out so will opt for no mentionable PoPs in the forecast at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Unfortunately for those who are ready for a break from the heat, I
do not have the best news to report as we expect this triple digit
heat to continue through Friday. However the good news (sort of?) is
that we will see a slight cool down through the weekend (laughable)
with chances for precipitation returning (yay!) by Friday. The
persistent upper ridge and associated area of high pressure will
remain the dominate synoptic feature through the end of the week
into the weekend, while monsoonal moisture continues to wrap around
its eastern periphery. At the same time, a shortwave trough
transversing across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region
will drive a weak cold front southward into the forecast area late
Friday. The front, combined with increased layer (H3-H8) moisture
and weak large scale ascent will support low chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Confidence in coverage and timing
remains low at this time, with widespread actively being dependent
on FROPA timing, in combination with the influence of the ridge.
However, the good news is that we can expect temperatures to cool a
few degrees, into the 90s, through the weekend. Thereafter, the warm
and drier trend returns, as the upper level ridge expands eastward
suppressing precipitation chances while temperatures climb back into
the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR will continue at all TAF sites. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-042>044.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025-026-031-032-
037-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01