833
FXUS64 KLUB 032323
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

  - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through
    tonight, with locally heavy rain possible.

 - Temperatures will trend warmer and rain chances will decrease
   on July 4th.

 - Near zero precipitation chances are expected Friday night
   however will return Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.

 - Warmer and dryer conditions next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The moist/tropical airmass in place has been providing widespread
moderate to occasionally heavy rain across the central and
eastern South Plains this morning. The heaviest rain over the past
3 to 6 hours has been concentrated over the central South Plains,
including Lubbock, where totals from 0.60 to 1.50+ inches have
been common. This rain has created minor flooding issues,
particularly on roadways when it comes down hard. Outside of the
US-87/I-27 Corridor of the South Plains, rainfall has been much
lighter, though nearly everyone has measured at least a little
rain this morning. The nearly saturated troposphere will persist
over the region through this evening, supporting additional rounds
of rain, locally heavy, as well as a few embedded thunderstorms.
That said, a lot of the high-res guidance does suggest a general
decrease in coverage and intensity of activity through the evening
and overnight. This appears plausible as our mid-upper level flow
will veer notably, shifting from southerly to westerly by this
evening. The westerly flow aloft will continue into Friday as a
shortwave trough emerges over the central and northern High
Plains. In response, the deep monsoonal moisture plume will
gradually shift eastward on Friday, residing east of the CWA by
00Z Saturday.

In response to the pattern shift aloft, cloud cover will gradually
thin from west-to-east during the day Friday, complete with
dwindling rain chances. Increased insolation, especially on the
Caprock Friday afternoon, will yield warmer temperatures, with highs
reaching lower 90s over the western zones. Farther east, off the
Caprock, where greater cloud cover and deep moisture persists,
temperatures will stay a bit cooler, with highs mostly in the middle
80s. The best rain chances (20-40%) will also linger in the Rolling
Plains where the deeper moisture resides. It should noted, though,
that low-level moisture will linger across most of the CWA. A
surface trough/dryline will advance to around the TX/NM line by late
in the day. Afternoon heating will result in moderate instability
east of the dryline, but most NWP keep it capped. Should heating or
convergence along the dryline overperform, an isolated late-day
storm will not be out of the question. Obviously, this could have
big impacts on evening 4th of July festivities for a few spots,
should a storm or two form. Odds are low (~10%), but it will be
something watch closely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Generally warmer and drier weather can be expected Saturday through
next week.  An upper high is expected to from over Arizona and
New Mexico and then slowly drift north and expand into the 4-
Corners region where it should remain for the next week to 10
days. In general this will provide us with seasonably warm weather
with highs in from the upper 80s to the 90s and clear to partly
cloudy skies. Upper wind around the upper high will generally be
from the north, but could occasionally be from the northwest. The
direction is important because more northwest flow will could
bring pockets of increased upper moisture and instability from
thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain of Colorado and
northeast New Mexico south and southeast into our area. Our
forecast contains as much as a 20 percent chance of storms
Saturday night and as much as 40 percent in southwest Panhandle
Sunday night. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Flying conditions will remain poor through much/all of this TAF
cycle, thanks to abundant moisture providing widespread rain showers
and low ceilings. The terminals currently have IFR in place, with
light to moderate rain falling at LBB and PVW. Expect the showers to
gradually decrease in coverage later this afternoon into this
evening, though low-level moisture will keep clouds in place. There
could even be a few embedded rumbles of thunder, though any storms
will be isolated and addressed with amendments, if needed.
Otherwise, think ceilings will generally trend to MVFR mid-late
afternoon before dropping back to IFR (and potentially LIFR)
tonight. Confidence in the exact timing of category changes is low,
so expect amendments. Improving conditions will eventually
materialize, but not until late morning or early afternoon at LBB
and PVW, and even later at CDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No significant changes this TAF cycle. An overall decrease in
shower and isolated TS coverage is expected this evening as the
last bit of energy treks across the region. IFR ceilings to return
this evening with the potential for LIFR. Improvements are likely
toward late morning Friday with VFR expected mid to late Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07