991
FXUS64 KLUB 121711
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms mainly this morning over the western
   South Plains where locally heavy rain is likely.

 - Cooler than normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
   next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

PoPs were shaved much lower off the Caprock this morning to
account for lift focusing closer to the TX-NM border behind an
outflow boundary and weak cold front. A corridor of very moist
mixing ratios around 16 g/kg in the lowest 150 mb was advecting
NNW across the western South Plains into eastern NM which combined
with MLCAPEs of nearly 1500 J/kg should sustain new convection
through mid morning. Storm motions parallel to the surface
boundary will support locally heavy rain and some flooding,
mainly across Cochran and Yoakum counties.

By late morning, increasingly stable post-frontal air and
subsidence behind the axis of stronger ascent could bring an
abrupt end to precip chances area wide. Opted to leave some low
precip mention in most areas, although this may need further
revision lower if the HRRR (which has been performing the best
thus far) is correct.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A lot of things to discuss for this short term package. Let`s
start with the upper level pattern. A high pressure system remains
to our west over the coast of SoCal and a secondary high persists
to our east over the Gulf Coast states. A positively tilted
trough sits in between the two upper highs directly over the Great
Plains. Upper level flow will gradually shift from northwest to
north as the upper trough expands over portions of Texas Panhandle
and North Texas through the day. On the surface, light
southeasterly flow will continue. The outflow boundary ahead of
the line of storms will surge through our region shifting winds to
the north to northeast. Following the outflow, a cold front is
progged to track southward through the CWA tomorrow morning.
Cooler air following the front and mostly cloudy skies will cool
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 80s.
Light northerly flow will prevail through today. Shower and
thunderstorm chances for today are uncertain at the moment as it
is dependent on the placement of the front. Current models have
the cold front surging out of the CWA keeping all thunderstorms
just south of the CWA. As the location of the front is uncertain,
NBM PoPs have been lowered to chance. If any thunderstorms develop
in our region, weak instability parameters will keep them sub-
severe. Main threat with any storms will be heavy rainfall with
localized flooding with PWAT values from 1.5 to 2 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

An upper level trough will be overhead at the start of the long term
period with precipitation likely ongoing. This trough is now progged
to take a slight shift to the south/southeast Sunday with rain
chances shifting that direction as well. The upcoming forecast will
reflect that shift as well with a dry forecast now for the
northwestern corner of the area and the highest PoPs and QPF
shifting to the southeast as well, but with high chance PoPs and
potential for locally heavy rainfall lingering across the southern
Rolling Plains and adjacent areas to the north and west. Beyond
Sunday the trough will get shunted slowly westward while also
undergoing some weakening as the subtropical high along the Gulf
Coast attempts to expand westward. Slight chance to chance PoPs,
mainly diurnally-driven look reasonable at least through Thursday
given proximity of trough and associated mid-level moisture while
the pattern also suggests temperatures near to slightly above normal
for highs and near to a bit above normal for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR and light winds will continue through the current TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19