Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
666 FXUS64 KLUB 261054 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 554 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 554 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Very warm today with a few isolated thunderstorms possible on the Caprock this afternoon and evening. - Hot and dry conditions Sunday and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Broad upper level ridging persists over the southeastern CONUS, and the forecast area will remain beneath the western edge of this ridge throughout the short term period. Midlevel height tendencies will be slightly positive today as the region is positioned between a departing shortwave trough to our north and an easterly mid/upper level wave over South TX. As a result, sfc-H5 layer thicknesses will increase resulting in temperatures several degrees warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday with highs today in the upper 90s to low 100s. Although water vapor imagery indicates the midlevel monsoonal moisture plume has thinned considerably over the past 24 hours, a bit of enhancement from the aforementioned easterly wave will keep PWATs near or just above 1.25", which combined with strong heating, seasonably high surface dewpoints, and minimal inhibition should support a few isolated pulse-type thunderstorms once again this afternoon through this evening. Model consensus concentrates most of this activity on the Caprock, though we do expect a majority of the region to remain dry today. Similar to yesterday, individual storm cells are likely to be short-lived and diminish after sunset, with only a low chance of a strong wind gust and brief downpour from the strongest activity. Thereafter, we expect a dry overnight period with seasonably mild lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The upper high over southeastern CONUS will continue to expand over most of the southern CONUS over the long term package. As the high shifts west, the monsoonal moisture plume will get pushed away from the region. Lack of the monsoonal moisture and subsidence from the upper high will keep thunderstorm chances near zero for the first half of next week. However, southeasterly upslope winds, drawing in moisture from the Gulf, could result in an isolated thunderstorm or two Saturday evening. Models indicate storms developing along the TX/NM border and tracking southeast, therefore PoPs were increased to include slight chances for western portions on the Caprock. Height increases will keep temperatures hot with highs in the 90s to triple digits next week. NBM has precipitation chances returning every afternoon and evening beginning Tuesday through the end of the week, although models indicate precipitation will remain to the north and west of our region. However, NBM PoPs were left alone as this is towards the end of the long term package and highly uncertain at the moment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR prevails for the TAF period, with light and variable winds becoming south this afternoon. An isolated TSTM will be possible along and west of the I-27 corridor this afternoon, but it remains unclear if TSTMs will affect KLBB or KPVW. Any TSTM potential will wane after dark. Check density altitude. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...09