462
FXUS64 KLUB 051640
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - Isolated storms expected this afternoon and evening on the Caprock,
   before favoring the far southwest TX Panhandle on Sunday.

 - The heat holds tight for Labor Day and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Late-morning water vapor data showed a more pronounced arc of
subsidence overspreading all areas off the Caprock and southwest
through the Big Bend ahead of an expansive upper high over southern
Kansas. This process shoved the eastern fringes of our monsoonal
moisture band farther west, roughly near and west of a line from
Silverton-Lubbock-Seminole. Given strong heating with minimal CIN
and CAPEs around 1000 J/kg today, the stage is set for another round
of isolated showers and storms by this afternoon and continuing
through early evening, generally favoring areas west of the
aforementioned line. DCAPEs around 1000 J/kg along with tall precip
cores have proven efficient for a few downbursts these last two
days, so we won`t be surprised to see another instance of strong
or severe wind gusts with some of today`s storms.

Despite the H5 high settling over the eastern TX Panhandle on
Sunday, its strength remains largely unchanged around 592 dam. So
while the subsidence layer will expand over most of the CWA on
Sunday, the window remains open in our far NW counties for
isolated afternoon and evening PoPs along the fringes of the
retreating monsoonal moisture. Sunday`s high temps stack up close
to today with mid/upper 90s on the Caprock and around 100
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The main news in the extended realm concerns the heat dome shifting
into the Desert Southwest by mid-to-late week which opens our door
to unsettled WNW flow along the eastern edge of the ridge. This
change is tied to a potent upper trough shifting from the Pacific
Northwest to the northern and central Great Plains by midweek,
allowing a cold front to impact portions of the panhandles or
beyond come late week. Ensemble spread with this change is still
sizable, but the potential for a pattern disruption involving
cooler temps with rain chances may be in the offing by late week
into next weekend. NBM`s spotty low PoPs support this signal well
enough for now, but its toasty high temps may have room to go
lower in later forecasts should confidence in the cold front
improve. Regardless, high temps look to hold well shy of record
territory next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR with a minuscule chance of TS later today impacting LBB and
PVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93