848
FXUS64 KLUB 122312
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms ending this afternoon for much of the
   area. Additional chances develop Sunday afternoon.

 - Cooler than normal temperatures this weekend moderate to near
   summer norms by midweek.

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to depart southward this
afternoon. Outside of the far southern Rolling Plains, the rest of
the area looks to remain dry in a stable airmass behind a cold
front. Partial clearing is already seen to the northwest and
temperatures should warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s later this
afternoon. Models continue to indicate a south/eastward trend in the
precipitation as an upper trough looks to be outside our CWA by this
evening. Thus, dry conditions and light winds looks to persist
overnight into Sunday. Mentionable PoPs do return by Sunday
afternoon/evening, however overall forcing is minimal, with a
relatively weak LLJ moving in from the west by evening. More reliable
CAMs keep convection fairly isolated and severe weather is not
expected at this time. Upper heights will slightly rise, and highs
will be uniformly in the mid 80s across the area with partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The extended forecast continues to feature gradually moderating
temperatures, trending back up to around seasonal norms by mid-week,
where they will remain through the rest of the week. Most days also
have at least a slight chance of showers/storms somewhere in the CWA
through the week, though the overall rain chances/coverage are
trending lower in much of the medium range suite of NWP.

Regarding the details, the deeper monsoon moisture axis is expected
to reside downstate to start the long term (Sunday evening), but it
will be inclined to edge this way early next week as a subtropical
high over the Deep South and Gulf builds into East Texas. However,
the mid-level moisture plume is also forecast to thin as it centers
more closely overhead Monday into Tuesday. Aside from possible
lingering low-level boundaries (location uncertain) and daytime
heating, overall forcing will be weak/nebulous, which may tend to
limit coverage/focus for deep moist convection. The exception
will be over the higher terrain of northeast NM, where orographic
effects will result widespread storm development Sunday afternoon.
This activity may grow upscale through the evening, potentially
affecting our western counties, though northerly flow aloft will
tend to limit how far east this activity can make it Sunday
evening/night.

Thereafter, the upper high is progged to continue its westward
expansion, with drier air aloft advecting into the region mid-late
week as the monsoon reorganizes and is directed more squarely into
the Four Corners. Daily rain/storm chances will be modulated by the
upper high and position of the monsoonal moisture. In general, the
medium range NWP agree the best rain chances will reside to the west
of the CWA, though some activity could occasionally "leak" into our
western/northwestern zones, particularly when shortwaves traversing
the northern tier of the nation bend the moisture feed eastward. We
have accepted the NBM PoPs for now, but if the stronger/closer upper
ridge continues to gain traction, PoPs will need to be reduced and
confined farther to the west than currently depicted mid-late week.
Regardless, temperatures will trend warmer given the increasing
heights/thicknesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR prevails for the TAF period at KLBB and KPVW. MVFR stratus is
forecast to develop towards sunrise INVOF KCDS, and will erode by
the late morning hours Sunday. Light and variable winds are
expected through tomorrow morning, and will transition towards the
southeast thereafter. Prospects for TSTMs affecting the terminals
tomorrow afternoon remain too low for a mention in this cycle.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09