Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
006 FXUS64 KLUB 031723 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Warm today with a chance for an isolated storm or two this evening. - Near record temperatures on Thursday afternoon. - Cooler and wetter conditions expected to return Friday through the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 In the short term, the main concern will be the potential for isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forcing for ascent will be non-existent locally with a short wave trough moving southeastward over the Central Plains per water vapor imagery. A weak surface trough was currently draped across West Texas which may provide some focus for isolated convection later today. The surface trough was not well defined so low level convergence along this feature will not be strong. Warmer temperatures today will lead to a deeply mixed boundary layer in the afternoon. Surface temperatures are expected to reach close to the forecast convective temperatures. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft for the time of year between 7 to 8 C/km will yield mixed layer instability values up to 500 J/kg or so. However, given the deeply mixed boundary layer, cloud bases will be very high within this expected cu field with very isolated coverage anticipated. Strong winds directly underneath this convection can be expected due to the very dry sub-cloud layer. Overnight tonight, a cold front will slowly edge to the south across the Texas Panhandle with a surface ridge pushing across the Central Plains. This cold front will stall out near the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle bringing potential low stratus to this area on Thursday morning. Surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies on Thursday will keep the front from advancing any farther into the South Plains. The increased pressure gradient from the cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado will increase winds out of the southwest between 10-15 mph. Temperatures will surge well above seasonal averages with lower 100s off the caprock and upper 90s to near 100 on the caprock. We will approach the record temperature at Lubbock with the current record at 102 for Thursday. The exception may be around Childress where easterly winds may persist near the old frontal boundary. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The main forecast issue in the long term will be the potential for rainfall this weekend. However, there is still much uncertainty regarding the precipitation forecast. Much of the potential will stem from a remnant tropical system in the eastern Pacific as well as a stalled out cold front near the area. Hurricane Lorena was currently churning off the coast of Baja California but model guidance seems to differ on the track of the system as it moves more northward. The GFS has been most bullish on bringing the remnants of the tropical cyclone inland over western Mexico and eventually into the southwestern US which would be more favorable for precipitation chances locally. Although the ECMWF does not bring the circulation inland, moisture aloft will spread overhead from this system. Current forecast IVT vectors show moisture surging into the area beginning as early as Friday through the day on Saturday before decreasing late in the weekend. With the GFS bringing the circulation into the southwestern US, the moisture will persist for a longer period of time over West Texas. A cold front is forecast to ooze its way into the area beginning on Friday with a surface ridge centered over the Central Plains. With these eastern Pacific tropical systems, the area of greatest precipitation chances usually rests with the position of a stalled out front. At this point in the forecast, the exact position of the front is not clear which lends to a low confidence precipitation forecast for this weekend. It is difficult to say where the peak of precipitation chances will even be located as well as the timing. Periodic rain showers are most likely with embedded thunder chances given the cool upslope flow. More of a certainty in this forecast will be the cooler temperatures that will spread into the area this weekend. Increasing mid and high level cloud cover as early as Friday will bring cooler temperatures even before the front arrives. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for KLBB and KPVW through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected for KCDS before MVFR ceilings fill in early Thursday morning, however should return to VFR conditions by early afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two are possible at all three TAF sites late this afternoon through the evening, however location and timing are uncertain, therefore left out of TAF. Light westerly winds will continue to veer to the southeast overnight, but should back to the west Thursday morning. LLWS is expected just after midnight through early morning hours at KLBB. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...10