220
FXUS64 KLUB 242258
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
558 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening mainly east of
   the Caprock.

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout
   the upcoming week, with severe storms possible each day.

 - Cooler temperatures begin Monday and continue through the
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A surface low in the vicinity of Childress has pulled the dryline
eastward to near a Childress to Post to Lamesa line as of early
afternoon. West of the surface low extends a cold front across the
far southern Panhandle as far south as Plainview to Muleshoe.
Despite hot temperatures in the moist air mass east of the dryline
(note the 100/63 temp/dew at Aspermont), no cumulus has yet
developed in the forecast area, a sign of the strength of the cap.
Models have the cap hanging on strong and suggest it will be very
late in the day into early evening before it will be broken. The
best chances of that occurring per the models are along the dryline
and will tailor the better chances for thunderstorms in the first
part of the evening across the southeastern third of the forecast
area. As the surface low weakens this evening south winds should
surge northward through the Rolling Plains and adjacent parts of the
South Plains, and moisture advection with that mechanism could see
thunderstorms build northward toward the far southeastern Panhandle
mid to late evening. Severe remains a threat but could be a bit more
limited than previously anticipated with lessening instability in
the post-sunset time frame.

After retreating northward tonight, the cold front will make another
appearance into the forecast area Sunday afternoon and will become
the focus for thunderstorm development. The cap will likely be
weaker tomorrow with some modest height falls the next 24 hours.
Rich low level moisture to the east of the dryline and wrapping
northward behind the cold front will result in very healthy
instability and a noted increase in the severe risk over today.
Temperatures across the northern zones should held a bit in check
behind the cold front, but in general will again prefer the warmer
NBM over MOS guidance for highs Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Next week is looking to be an active week with cooler temperatures
and precipitation chances through next weekend. The first round of
active weather will begin Sunday afternoon as a deepening upper
trough moves through central CONUS bringing strong southwesterly
flow aloft aiding in upper level ascent. By Sunday evening, a
dryline will set up around the I-27 corridor as a frontal boundary
pushes south into the region. Models depict the boundary to reach
northern portions of the CWA by late tomorrow afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop east of the dryline and south
of the frontal boundary. Severe thunderstorms are possible with
soundings showing MUCAPE values exceeding 4500 J/kg and bulk shear
magnitudes around 30 kt. Damaging wind, large hail, heavy rain, and
an isolated tornado or two are possible with any severe
thunderstorms that develop. Timing and location of thunderstorm
development is uncertain at this time as it will depend on the
timing and location of the frontal boundary.

The upper trough will continue to track over the Central Plains
Monday, strengthening southwesterly flow aloft in the morning
through early afternoon before shifting to zonal flow by late
afternoon as the trough moves off. Another round of thunderstorms is
possible Monday. Although forcing aloft will be weak due to the wind
shift, decent instability and bulk shear will support any convective
development through the afternoon and evening. There will be a break
in precipitation Monday night through Tuesday morning however a
third round of convection is expected to develop over western
portions of the FA and build eastward Tuesday afternoon as the
dryline sets up near the TX/NM border. Thunderstorms for Monday and
Tuesday is highly uncertain as development will be dependent on
location of remnant boundaries from prior day convection which are
not resolvable at this time therefore, slight chance to chance NBM
PoPs were kept.

Precipitation chances continue mid-week through the weekend
although, confidence in occurrence is low. Models are not in
agreement with the upper level pattern for the latter half of the
week. Flow aloft seems to remain zonal with embedded shortwaves
tracking over the region and lingering low level moisture supports
precipitation chances through the rest of the week. Temperatures
next week are expected to be cooler than the previous week with
highs in the 70s to 80s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A band of storms continues to grow to the east of KLBB and KPVW,
and will stay east of the terminals. KCDS has the best potential
for STG-SVR storms tonight, and the PROB30 group has been
maintained with this TAF cycle. LLWS will occur at all terminals
tonight, with shear magnitudes near 35-40 kt as low as 300 ft AGL
at KLBB and KPVW; and as low as 500 ft AGL at KCDS. SVR storms are
forecast develop quickly by tomorrow afternoon, with the highest
chances near KCDS, with more-isolated storm development farther
southward into KLBB and KPVW. Timing will continue to be refined
in the forthcoming TAF cycles. VFR prevails outside of TSTMs.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09