651
FXUS64 KLUB 242334
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
534 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

 - A cold front late tonight will bring breezy north winds and
   cool temperatures on Monday.

 - A series of additional cold fronts later this week will give
   way to cool, below seasonable temperatures towards the end of
   the week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

As of 130 PM the cold front that is expected to push through the
region this evening is moving into southern Kansas. The front is
expected to push into our northern zones after midnight and through
our southern zones by 15Z. The late arrival of the cold front will
have little affect on morning lows, but tomorrow`s highs should be
noticeably cooler with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will
be on the breezy side as pressure rises behind the front will
average 6 mb per 3 hours. Ahead of the front, winds will continue to
be out of the west as the surface low remains to our north before
quickly pushing off to the east ahead of the cold front. The
westerly winds will help keep overnight lows mild.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

As the shortwave trough from Monday continues to scoot eastward into
the Upper Midwest early Tuesday morning, zonal flow aloft will
prevail overhead of the FA through the middle of the week. The
pattern will begin to change Thursday, as the upper level trough
over the PacNW translates into the Southern Plains brining much
cooler weather with it for Thanksgiving Day.

Tuesday will be slightly warmer than Monday as northerly surface
winds become more southerly as the surface high ejects east and
surface troughing develops in southeastern CO. Generally winds will
remain light, with the greatest wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph
found across the far southwestern and central Texas Panhandle and
northern South Plains, which are areas closer to the surface trough.
While a few high clouds are expected to move into the region, they
will not do much in the way of temperatures with highs forecasted
back to seasonal normals in the 60s area-wide. Winds will remain
breezy overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a lee cyclone
develops as the upper level trough begins to track east. With high
clouds and breezy wind speeds overnight, overnight lows will be
around 10 degrees warmer than previous in the mid to upper 50s. The
lee cyclone will begin to push east into the Southern Plains
Wednesday, allowing westerly winds to prevail across the FA. Given
the H7 and H8 wind maxima`s located overhead in addition to BL mixing
depicted by forecast soundings, NBM wind speeds seemed a bit low.
Therefore decided to bump wind speed with NBM 75th to reflect wind
speeds around 15 to 25 mph, with the strongest winds along the TX/NM
state line. By late Wednesday afternoon the trough axis is expected
to have moved into the region, swinging a cold front through the
region. Latest guidance has the front making its way into our
northern counties late Wednesday pushing completely through just
after midnight. The surge of cooler Canadian air will move in
shortly after the front passes through, as the surface high moves
southward into the Texas Panhandle. This will lead to  a gradient in
overnight lows Wednesday with temperatures near the freezing mark
across our northwestern counties and areas elsewhere in the mid to
upper 30s. Post frontal northerly winds will remain through Thursday
afternoon before veering out of the southeast in the evening, this
will keep the cooler airmass locked in place with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s for Thanksgiving Day. No precipitation is expected
with this front, with guidance continuing to keep the bulk of
moisture and instability to our north. Cooler temperatures will
remain through the weekend, with ensemble and deterministic guidance
hinting at an additional front on Saturday as a shortwave trough
moves through the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR will prevail at all sites. A cold front will pass southward
through the region overnight bringing breezy north winds which
will persist through most of the day on Monday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30