992
FXUS64 KLUB 101122
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

 - Continued hot and dry through at least mid-week.

 - Thunderstorm chances will increase late Wednesday through
   Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

This evening`s data shows a more pronounced weakness (to our
east) in the southern CONUS flattened high pressure system than
yesterday. In fact, there looks to be a weak tropical wave which
develops off the middle Texas coast and starts works its way
inland Monday night toward the DFW metroplex. With the H5 594
contour overhead, it will continue to be hot but not excessively
so. Highs on Monday will once again range from the upper 90s to
the 102-104 range out east. And, of course, no precipitation of
any consequence is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

On Tuesday, we start to see a shift in the upper level pattern as
the high begins to shift eastward influenced by an upper trough
approaching the California coast.  By late week, flow aloft is
expected to become increasingly southwesterly and supportive of some
not-so-straighforward evolution. At least some of the guidance is
hitting at both increased monsoon flow with the western trough`s
influence, but also another tropical wave appears to perhaps
approach the northern Mexican coastline Wednesday evening before
being shunted our way.  This will be an interesting setup to watch.
I wouldn`t want to get too excited about these prospects just now
as models struggle with weakly forced systems. It is likely most
areas will remain dry. However, the chances for rainfall do
increase late this week with slightly cooler temperatures (a few
degrees) possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Continued VFR.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...93