534
FXUS64 KLUB 101725
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are expected
   this afternoon into tonight, primarily on the Caprock.

 - Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters,
   and localized flash flooding will be possible.

 - Cooler temperatures and additional chances for thunderstorms continue
   from Monday through Wednesday, with drier conditions expected
   for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, an amplifying, positively-tilted shortwave
trough was pivoting over the central and northern U.S., with the 250
mb component having a much sharper meridional waveguide while
broadening in the mid-levels. A well-defined vorticity lobe was
evident on water-vapor imagery over central CO, which continues to
rotate southeastward along the leading edge of the 250 mb jet streak
of around 75 kt per the 12Z objectively analyzed UA charts. Another
weak vortex was detected over the TX Gulf Coast, with a broad area
of northeasterly flow expanding northwestward towards the CWA,
resulting in a substantially sheared synoptic background environment
over the southern Great Plains. The leading shortwave trough has
since ejected over the Corn Belt, and the tail-end of the associated
MCC, with aid from the low-level jet, was responsible for the
isentropically-induced showers and thunderstorms across the far
southwestern TX PH this past morning. These clusters of storms have
since dissipated following the dispersion of the low-level jet as
the boundary-layer mixes.

At the surface, a slow-moving cold front was crossing the I-40
corridor, with the attendant cyclone located in AMA. Farther south,
surface winds that were not contaminated by the elevated cluster of
WAA-induced convection remains breezy and veered, with the moist
sector remaining broad. The cold front is convectively-reinforced,
which has maintained a modest state of baroclinity along its
immediate vicinity as it sags southward (i.e., WTM is observing
temperatures in the middle 70s north of I-40 compared to the upper
80s across most of the CWA), and this baroclinity is expected to be
maintained as it moves into the CWA in a couple of hours despite
differential vertical mixing along either side of the front. The
remnants of the outflow boundaries associated with the elevated
cluster of convection this past morning will also phase with the
stalling front, but should become nearly dispersed due to the
intense heating across the moist/warm sector. High temperatures near
100 degrees are expected once again across most of the CWA this
afternoon, with the airmass becoming uncapped by 20-21Z.

As the aforementioned vorticity lobe emerges over the OK/TX PH later
this afternoon, scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms are expected to
form near the NM state line and gradually propagate eastward across
the Caprock. Since the airmass will be uncapped, with a dearth in
the magnitude of steering flow as the right-entrance region to the
250 mb jet streak remains displaced over western KS, storm motions
will be governed via propagation from outflow(s) generated by the
strong theta perturbations from high-based LCLs due to cellular
interference. In classic W TX fashion, strong-to-severe-caliber wind
gusts between 50-60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters will be
possible with the organized cells, and it is possible that cells
unzip and merge into large cluster, especially as the low-level jet
strengthens near and after 11/00Z. The 12Z RAOBs measured PWATs near
to below seasonal norms, but the intensification of the low-level
jet will aid in sufficient moisture transport before it veers late
tonight. Therefore, any potential for flash flooding will remain
localized given the slow storm motions offsetting the meager PWAT
budget. Coverage of storms will gradually diminish throughout the
nighttime hours, but at least widely-scattered showers and storms
are forecast to be ongoing through Monday morning across most of the
CWA until the 700 mb trough also veers westward and reestablishes
the mid-level warm nose atop the decoupled boundary-layer. A wide
range of low temperatures is expected tonight, as the cold front
will remain stalled in an east-west-oriented manner, with lows
ranging from the lower 60s in the far southwestern TX PH to the
lower-middle 70s elsewhere across the South and Rolling Plains.

The eastward translation of the mid/upper-level, shortwave trough
will remain semi-progressive Monday, as the Bermuda High remains
amplified over the North Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. Cessation of
the low-level jet and veering of the 700 mb trough will result in a
temporary reprieve from convection after sunrise Monday, but if any
renegade cells continue to linger, lightning potential looks slim
similar to what was observed this past morning. By the afternoon
hours Monday, another vorticity lobe embedded within the amplified
250 mb trough is forecast to rotate over the TX PH, and with an
improvement in the magnitude of the component to the steering flow
(e.g., 15-20 kt) atop the stalled front and uncapped airmass,
isolated storms will once again develop across portions of the CWA
early Monday afternoon, especially along the convectively-reinforced
front. Locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts will accompany
storms during the early-to-middle afternoon hours, with coverage set
to increase quickly across the Caprock by Monday evening.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

By Monday evening models remain in good agreement placing notable
midlevel shortwave troughing directly over the region with some
solutions also highlighting a slightly negatively tilted H3 trough
and associated jet streak over the TX/OK Panhandles, with these
features progged to move only very slowly eastward through Tuesday
morning. The net result will be an extended period of fairly strong
large scale forcing for ascent, which will allow the convection
initially present near sunset to persist or increase in coverage and
continue through much of Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Overnight convection will be capable of producing heavy rain given
PWATs above 1.25" with forecast soundings also exhibiting tall and
elongated CAPE profiles, with some localized flooding not out of the
question either. It does appear that storm coverage will be highest
on the Caprock Monday night, with activity tending to fade in both
intensity and coverage as it shifts east of the escarpment during
into the early morning hours.

On Tuesday, models highlight a building midlevel ridge centered over
the Great Basin, which is a bit farther west than previously
progged. In addition, most solutions now indicate a weak blocking
pattern developing with general mid/upper level troughiness over the
central and southern plains states persisting through much of the
midweek period between the western ridge and a more expansive ridge
centered over FL. As a result, storm chances will continue across
most of the region on both Tuesday and Wednesday, though coverage
and timing of convection during this period is uncertain. Much will
depend on how overnight storm activity evolves including the
position of any remnant boundaries, in addition to the degree of
leftover cloud cover which could inhibit heating and
destabilization. Still, the synoptic setup does support maintaining
fairly broad mentionable PoPs through much of the Tuesday-Wednesday
time period before the western ridge shifts more squarely overhead
and brings a more well-defined dry period for the end of the week.
Regarding temperatures, Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the
upcoming week with current NBM probabilities showing a >50% chance
of highs below 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon over much of the
forecast area. Modest midlevel height rises will then result in a
slight warm up through the rest of the week, but at this time it
appears that temperatures will remain near average for this time of
year through the end of the week with highs Wed-Fri in the low to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

TSTM chances will increase this evening over W TX, and are
forecast to affect KLBB and KPVW near and after dark. Reductions
in VSBYs and CIGs, along with strong wind gusts, will be possible
with TSTMs. TEMPO groups have been assigned to KLBB and KPVW to
reflect the best timing, but may be refined come the next TAF
cycle. VFR prevails outside of TSTM potential, with breezy,
southerly winds remaining intact through tonight. A cold front
will then move into the region and stall early Monday morning,
resulting in light and variable winds. Check density altitude.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09