Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
112 FXUS64 KLUB 051111 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 611 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Areas of patchy fog area-wide this morning. - Hot and muggy conditions expected today, with a chance of scattered thunderstorms this evening. - Modest storm chances continue on Sunday and Monday with generally warmer and drier weather expected for the rest of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Late evening satellite imagery currently shows a low cloud deck beginning to to develop over portions of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, where it is expected to expand across areas off the Caprock. Hi-resolution guidance has picked up on this quicker development over the last few hours, with indications of patchy fog development with the low stratus deck, therefore will continue with the previous forecasts mention of patchy fog area-wide through much of the overnight period into the mid-morning hours Saturday. Skies are expected to clear before peak heating ours, which along with similar thickness and height values as today expected tomorrow thanks to the upper level ridge and associated high remaining locked in place across the Desert Southwest, will allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and 90s by the afternoon. Similar to previous days, it`s going to feel quite muggy out there once again tomorrow, as the surface high to our east and surface low to our west promotes southeasterly winds across the region. Resulting in Gulf moisture transport into the region with dewpoint temperatures expected in the 60s and 70s. There remains a slight chance for thunderstorms today across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, given moist upslope flow and ample moisture present. Forecast soundings across this area indicate a deep column of moisture extending from the surface through the mid-levels, aided by the moist southerly surface winds and lingering monsoonal moisture wrapping around the eastern side of the upper level high. Storms will likely initiate across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico and track southeastward towards our northwestern counties. Given weak northwest flow aloft, there remains a chance any storms that develop could diminish before reaching the area. There is a chance any storm that tracks into the area could become sub-severe given MUCAPE values of 1500 J/kg and decent low-level lapse rates, with main threats being small hail and occasional strong wind gusts to 55 MPH. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 A relatively stagnant synoptic pattern is set to continue through most of the next week as a broad monsoonal upper level ridge axis remains centered over the southwestern CONUS. Although a typical amount of monsoonal moisture for this time of year will be present beneath the ridge, there will not be as persistent or robust a midlevel moisture fetch as we saw over the past week or so. As a result, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be relatively limited. Predictability regarding specific timing and favored locations for storms is low given uncertainty in the position and eastward extent of the ridging aloft, but for now low mentionable PoPs look reasonable over much of the region mainly Sun-Mon before a general drying trend later in the week. Although the week will start out near normal in regards to temperatures, a gradual warming trend is set to begin thereafter with above-normal highs likely by the mid to late week period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Dense fog has formed area wide this morning and has brought all terminals into LIFR conditions. IFR conditions are expected to persist at KLBB and KPVW for several more hours until lifting to VFR late morning. These conditions will continue at KCDS until early this afternoon. There is a small chance of low CIGS/visbys returning early Sunday morning but chances appear low at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ027>030- 034>036-040>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01