863
FNUS73 KLSX 161255
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Pere Marquette Lower McAdams...Illinois DNR
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
655 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on January 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A west wind will prevail today. Expect the wind to increase by
10 AM with gusts up to 20-25 mph.  There could be some flurries
this morning, but the main chance for precipitation (40-50%) comes
with scattered showers late this afternoon into this evening.
Precipitation will likely start as rain, but will mix with then change
to snow this evening.  Mixing heights will start out around
1000 feet at ignition, but rise rapidly to around 2500 feet by 1000 AM
and top out over 5000 feet this afternoon.  The mixed layer will be
unstable today which should allow smoke to rise rapidly.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of flurries
                    in the morning. Chance of rain or snow
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 10 percent in the late
                    morning and early afternoon, then increasing to
                    20 percent late in the afternoon increasing to
                    30 percent late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........35 at ignition...Max 43.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light west wind at ignition increasing to 3 to
                    6 mph late this morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 5700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 25 mph increasing to 18 to 26 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2660 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /18050 m/s-m/ increasing to good (12210 m/s-m)
                    early in the morning increasing to excellent
                    max (20680 m/s-m) in the afternoon late in the
                    afternoon, then decreasing to poor (3430 m/s-m)
                    late in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........90     83     53     82     85     90
Weather cov.....S CHC                       CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....SNOW   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   SNOW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20     10     10     10     30     40
Temp............35     40     43     43     39     36
RH..............75     62     51     49     59     67
20 ft wind......W 9    W 12   W 14   W 12   W 10   W 9
20 ft wind gust.21     22     23     22     21     18
Eye level wind..W 4    W 6    W 6    W 6    W 5    W 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10     10     10     10     10     8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2    3.5    5.2    5.6    1.4    1.1
Transport wind..W 16   W 23   W 25   W 25   W 18   W 17
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17     69     115    122    22     17
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of snow
                    early in the evening, then slight chance of
                    snow early in the evening.
CWR.................50 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Temperature.........Min 20.
RH..................Max 67 percent.
Eye level winds.....West wind around 4 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 11 mph with gusts to around 21
                    mph.
Mixing height.......Min 600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (7150 m/s-m) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor min (1270 m/s-m) late in the
                    night.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 25.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Eye level winds.....West wind around 4 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph.
Mixing height.......Max 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (7230 m/s-m) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent max (21480 m/s-m) in
                    the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Carney
Requested by...Emma Launer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600294.0/LSX
.DELDT 01/16/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0