Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
445 FNUS73 KLSX 161048 FWSLSX Spot Forecast for Dry Branch Unit...MO DNR National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 548 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on October 16. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Widespread frost this morning should melt and evaporate off of the ground/grass around ignition time. Temperatures will quickly warm through the morning hours beneath a sunny sky and light northerly winds. The wind direction may become more variable by afternoon, with speeds at or below 5 mph. The unstable mixed layer will quickly increase from about 500 feet AGL at ignition to around 3500 feet AGL by midday. After another frosty night tonight, warmer afternoon temperatures are forecast Thursday with winds turning out of the south. Due to the warmer temperatures, expect minimum relative humidity values to be a bit lower compared to this afternoon. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Temperature.........41 at ignition...Max 61. RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 4 mph at ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph early in the afternoon, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Eye level winds.....Winds light (<3 mph) and variable using an adjustment factor of 0.3. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 4200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor /440 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...marginal /5420 m/s-m/. TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM Sky (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............41 52 58 61 58 51 RH..............67 46 36 31 34 46 20 ft wind......NW 4 NW 4 NW 5 NW 4 W 3 S 2 20 ft wind gust.7 8 8 6 5 3 Eye level wind..NW 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 2 W 1 S 1 Eye lvl wnd gst.3 4 4 3 2 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 3.1 4.1 4.2 3.6 0.3 Transport wind..NW 7 N 9 NW 9 NW 7 NW 5 SW 2 Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 25 33 25 15 1 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent). Areas of frost after 3 am. Widespread frost early in the morning. Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Temperature.........Min 33. RH..................Max 89 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Eye level winds.....Winds light/calm using an adjustment factor of 0.3. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Mixing height.......Min 300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest around 2 mph shifting to the south 5 to 9 mph early in the evening. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (90 m/s-m). .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Widespread frost early in the morning. Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Temperature.........Max 68. RH..................Min 28 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Eye level winds.....Winds light/calm in the morning becoming out of the south around 2 to 3 mph using an adjustment factor of 0.3. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Mixing height.......Max 3400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (380 m/s-m) early in the morning increasing to fair max (6800 m/s-m) in the afternoon. $$ Forecaster...Gosselin Requested by...Franny Stockton Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2424227.0/LSX .DELDT 10/16/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0