446
FNUS73 KLSX 101730
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Hazel Creek...Mark Twain NF
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1130 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 CST on November 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are expected to only warm by another couple degrees,
topping out around 37 degrees thanks to strong northwesterly
winds. Ample sunshine is expected among a few to scattered low
cumulus clouds. Winds will maintain their current magnitude and
direction through sunset (4-5pm) before weakening and gradually
becoming southwesterly overnight.

High clouds will increase in coverage late tonight and early
tomorrow morning, with confidence low in how thick they`ll be,
leading to uncertainty in how quickly temperatures will warm
during the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will already
be starting out quite cold, with morning lows dropping into the
low 20s. Southwesterly winds will help push temperatures up and RH
down, but this drop in RH will be offset somewhat by low-level
moisture moving into the region. Cloud cover will gradually thin
through the afternoon as winds peak out of the southwest. If the
cloud cover ends up being a little thicker than expected tomorrow,
temperatures may be a degree or two cooler, RH slightly higher,
and mixing heights a lower by a couple hundred feet relative to
values below.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........33 at forecast start...Max 36.
RH..................45 percent at forecast start...Min 35 percent.
Eye level winds.....Winds northwest at 5 mph or less, with gusts
up to 10 mph early in the afternoon. Adjustment
factor of 0.4 used.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 10 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
                    Gusts up to 21 mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise max
                    5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 22 mph decreasing to around 12
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /15660 m/s-m/ at forecast start.
                    Max...excellent /15980 m/s-m/.

TIME (CST)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      2      0      0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............33     36     34     28     24     22
RH..............45     35     38     50     62     68
20 ft wind......NW 10  NW 10  NW 7   W 3    W 3    SW 3
20 ft wind gust.18     17     15     9      7      5
Eye level wind..NW 5   NW 5   NW 3   W 1    W 1    SW 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      8      7      4      3      2
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2    5.2    4.5    0.6    0.5    0.5
Transport wind..NW 22  NW 22  NW 18  W 9    W 8    W 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..100    99     72     5      4      4
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 21.
RH..................Max 74 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south less than 5 mph
after 3 am. Adjustment factor of 0.4 used.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph after 3
                    am.
Mixing height.......Min 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to
                    13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (490 m/s-m).

.VETERANS DAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 58.
RH..................Min 26 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds at 5 mph. Gusts to 15 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Adjustment factor of
0.4 used.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 31 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 15 mph increasing to southwest 23
                    to 30 mph early in the morning, then decreasing
                    to around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (960 m/s-m) early in the morning
                    increasing to good max (10400 m/s-m) in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Elmore
Requested by...Patric Marlow
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2525526.0/LSX
.DELDT 11/10/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0