Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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104
FNUS73 KLSX 280119
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Horn Prairie Grove LWR...IL DNR
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
719 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CST on February 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected on
Friday due to gusty southwest winds, low humidity, and
dry vegetation. Southwest winds will increase and become
quite gusty by mid-morning. The wind will remain strong
and gusty through the afternoon veering to more westerly.
Short term fuels will dry rather quickly during the morning.
Winds will diminish some in the evening and shift to the
northwest as a cold front moves through.


.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................35 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 20 mph at
                    ignition...becoming westerly around 20 mph
                    during the afternoon and then decreasing to
                    15 to 18 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusts up to 37 mph.
Eye level winds.....Winds southwest at 8 mph at ignition...
                    becoming westerly around 8 mph
                    during the afternoon and then decreasing to
                    6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts to
                    15 mph. Using a 0.4 adjustment factor.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 4900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 30 to 36 mph decreasing to around 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /12990 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /23130 m/s-m/ decreasing to poor (4460 m/s-m)
                    late in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
Sky (%).........9      1      12     21     20     10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............60     64     61     54     50     46
RH..............35     29     31     41     48     56
20 ft wind......SW 20  W 20   W 18   W 10   NW 11  NW 11
20 ft wind gust.32     31     27     19     24     20
Eye level wind..SW 9   W 9    W 8    W 5    NW 5   NW 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.15     14     12     9      11     9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8    4.3    4.0    0.7    0.7    0.9
Transport wind..SW 35  W 35   W 30   W 18   NW 17  NW 18
Vrate kt-ft/1K..83     128    103    11     11     15
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 11 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph.
Eye level winds.....Northwest 4 to 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph
                    using a 0.4 adjustment factor.
Mixing height.......Min 700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 21 mph shifting to the north
                    around 18 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1670 m/s-m).

$$
Forecaster...Glass
Requested by...Sami Childerson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2504309.0/LSX
.DELDT 02/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0