445
FNUS73 KLSX 161048
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Dry Branch Unit...MO DNR
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
548 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on October 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread frost this morning should melt and evaporate off
of the ground/grass around ignition time. Temperatures will
quickly warm through the morning hours beneath a sunny sky
and light northerly winds. The wind direction may become
more variable by afternoon, with speeds at or below 5 mph.

The unstable mixed layer will quickly increase from about
500 feet AGL at ignition to around 3500 feet AGL by midday.
After another frosty night tonight, warmer afternoon
temperatures are forecast Thursday with winds turning out
of the south. Due to the warmer temperatures, expect minimum
relative humidity values to be a bit lower compared to this
afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........41 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 4 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    northwest around 5 mph early in the afternoon,
                    then becoming light late in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Winds light (<3 mph) and variable using an
                    adjustment factor of 0.3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 4200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /440 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...marginal
                    /5420 m/s-m/.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      0      0      0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............41     52     58     61     58     51
RH..............67     46     36     31     34     46
20 ft wind......NW 4   NW 4   NW 5   NW 4   W 3    S 2
20 ft wind gust.7      8      8      6      5      3
Eye level wind..NW 2   NW 2   NW 2   NW 2   W 1    S 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.3      4      4      3      2
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5    3.1    4.1    4.2    3.6    0.3
Transport wind..NW 7   N 9    NW 9   NW 7   NW 5   SW 2
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      25     33     25     15     1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent). Areas of frost after 3 am.
                    Widespread frost early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 33.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Eye level winds.....Winds light/calm using an adjustment factor of 0.3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 2 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 9 mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (90 m/s-m).

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Widespread frost early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Winds light/calm in the morning becoming out of
                    the south around 2 to 3 mph using an adjustment
                    factor of 0.3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Max 3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (380 m/s-m) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair max (6800 m/s-m) in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Gosselin
Requested by...Franny Stockton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2424227.0/LSX
.DELDT 10/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0