Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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390
FNUS53 KLSX 190714
FWFLSX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Eastern/Central MO and Southwest IL
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

Conditions have dried effectively today with deep mixing under a
clear sky and many locations have dropped below 20% RH. A dryline
will move through the region tomorrow, with the risk for showers
and thunderstorms ahead of it and dry fire weather conditions
behind it. For a discussion on the severe potential please refer
to the Area Forecast Discussion.

The dryline is expected to clear Missouri around noon Thursday,
advancing into Illinois during the afternoon. Dry conditions with
RH values reaching minimums in the 20s to the upper teens will
prevail. Elevated winds above 15 mph sustained and gusting to
near 30 mph are expected as well from deep mixing bringing winds
to the surface. Ensemble guidance indicates the highest
probabilities (50-70%) for exceeding Red Flag criteria exist
across northeast, central, and portions of southeast Missouri
which will see the passage of the dryline first. Conditions are
expected to be drier and warmer than the ensemble guidance
indicates, so we have leaned on the more extreme ends of the
forecast.

Temperatures will cool with sunset, resulting in increasing RH
values despite winds keeping the lower atmosphere relatively well
mixed. A cold front will push through the region overnight,
shifting winds to the northwest and bringing cold air back to the
region. Cooling conditions and relatively higher minimum RH
values (30s-40s) will prevail through the weekend.


MOZ072-073-083-084-099-192200-
Crawford MO-Washington MO-Dent MO-Iron MO-Reynolds MO-
Including the cities of Potosi/Salem Ranger District and Salem
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Mclear       Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     30           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 20           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      74 (-1)      30 (-22)     55
RH % (24h trend)      21 (+1)      68 (-23)     28
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     S 4-8 G26                 W 6-10 G23
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     SW 8-12 G29  W 7-11 G25   lgt/var
Precip Amount         0.02         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    65                        42
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    6560         1490         2950
Transport Wnd (m/s)   SW 13        W 10         W  5
Transport Wnd (mph)   SW 30        W 22         W 12
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     40790        2370         9300
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the upper
40s. Minimum RH 40 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 40s.
Minimum RH 31 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 17. Highs in the upper 30s. Minimum
RH 30 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows around 18. Highs in the
lower 50s. Minimum RH 29 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

MOZ074-075-085-192200-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Madison MO-
Including the cities of Farmington and Fredericktown Ranger
District
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Mclear       Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     30           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 30           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      73 (-2)      34 (-20)     55
RH % (24h trend)      32 (+10)     64 (-35)     29
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     S 5-9 G24                 W 7-11 G23
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     SW 9-13 G26  SW 8-12 G24  NW 3-7 G17
Precip Amount         0.03         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    62                        43
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    4290         910          3330
Transport Wnd (m/s)   SW 12        SW  8        W  6
Transport Wnd (mph)   SW 26        SW 18        W 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     23630        1080         9170
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s.
Minimum RH 31 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 18. Highs in the upper 30s. Minimum
RH 31 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Not as cool. Lows around 18. Highs in
the upper 40s. Minimum RH 31 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs
around 60. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

MOZ041-047>050-192200-
Boone MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
Including the cities of Columbia, Cedar Creek Ranger District,
Jefferson City, and Fulton
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Pcldy        Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     30           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 30           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      72 (+1)      30 (-16)     48
RH % (24h trend)      19 (+4)      73 (+5)      36
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     SE 4-8 G22                W 8-12 G23
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     SW 11-15 G29 W 11-15 G28  W 5-9 G19
Precip Amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    65                        38
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    5730         1710         3080
Transport Wnd (m/s)   SW 14        W 13         W  7
Transport Wnd (mph)   SW 31        W 29         W 16
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     35650        3760         9510
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
mid 40s. Minimum RH 39 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.
Minimum RH 34 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 17. Highs in the upper 30s. Minimum
RH 34 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 31 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 60s. Minimum RH 40 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

MOZ051-060-065-192200-
Montgomery MO-Warren MO-Jefferson MO-
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Mclear       Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     50           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 50           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      73 (0)       31 (-17)     50
RH % (24h trend)      28 (+10)     73 (-11)     38
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     lgt/var                   W 9-13 G26
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     SW 8-12 G25  W 9-13 G29   W 5-9 G21
Precip Amount         0.02         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    65                        39
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    4390         1180         3250
Transport Wnd (m/s)   SW 11        SW  9        W  8
Transport Wnd (mph)   SW 25        SW 20        W 17
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     19680        1680         11080
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
mid 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.
Minimum RH 37 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 16. Highs in the mid 30s. Minimum RH
36 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows around 18. Highs in the
lower 50s. Minimum RH 32 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

MOZ059-062-192200-
Gasconade MO-Franklin MO-
Including the cities of Washington, Union, and Sullivan
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Mclear       Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     30           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 30           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      72 (-2)      31 (-18)     49
RH % (24h trend)      23 (+7)      72 (-12)     36
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     S 3-7 G22                 W 9-13 G24
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     SW 9-13 G29  W 9-13 G27   W 4-8 G18
Precip Amount         0.01         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    66                        40
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    5290         1250         3200
Transport Wnd (m/s)   SW 12        W 11         W  7
Transport Wnd (mph)   SW 28        W 25         W 16
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     30480        2320         9890
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
mid 40s. Minimum RH 40 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs around 40. Minimum
RH 34 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 17. Highs in the upper 30s. Minimum
RH 33 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows around 19. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 30 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

MOZ061-063-064-192200-
Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-
Including the cities of Saint Charles and Saint Louis
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Mclear       Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     50           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 50           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      71 (-3)      33 (-16)     49
RH % (24h trend)      35 (+19)     71 (-19)     38
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     lgt/var                   W 11-15 G26
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     S 7-11 G24   W 8-12 G26   W 6-10 G21
Precip Amount         0.03         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    64                        40
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    4000         770          3260
Transport Wnd (m/s)   SW 10        SW  8        W  8
Transport Wnd (mph)   SW 22        SW 18        W 17
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     17870        1450         12320
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s.
Minimum RH 40 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper
30s. Minimum RH 36 percent. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 19. Highs in the upper 30s. Minimum
RH 35 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in
the lower 50s. Minimum RH 30 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-100>102-192200-
Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-
Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-
Including the cities of Vandalia, Centralia, Salem, Chester,
Sparta, Alton, Edwardsville, Belleville, and Cahokia
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Mcldy        Mclear       Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     50           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 50           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      69 (-3)      36 (-17)     50
RH % (24h trend)      50 (+25)     77 (-22)     40
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     S 4-8 G20                 W 12-16 G27
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     S 8-12 G23   SW 8-12 G25  W 7-11 G22
Precip Amount         0.07         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       2
1700ft mixing temp    66                        41
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    2480         610          3370
Transport Wnd (m/s)   S 10         SW  9        W  9
Transport Wnd (mph)   S 23         SW 20        W 20
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     17600        860          14780
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
mid 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper
30s. Minimum RH 40 percent. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 19. Highs in the mid 30s.
Minimum RH 39 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Not as cool. Lows around 19. Highs in
the upper 40s. Minimum RH 36 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

MOZ018-019-026-027-035-036-052-192200-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Lincoln MO-
Including the cities of Hannibal and Bowling Green
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Pcldy        Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     40           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 40           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      66 (-3)      29 (-14)     45
RH % (24h trend)      37 (+22)     81 (+20)     42
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     E 4-8 G19                 W 11-15 G26
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     S 7-11 G22   W 10-14 G29  W 7-11 G22
Precip Amount         0.01         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    61                        36
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    3550         660          3680
Transport Wnd (m/s)   S  8         SW  7        W  9
Transport Wnd (mph)   S 18         SW 16        W 20
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     18350        730          12800
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the
lower 40s. Minimum RH 40 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s.
Minimum RH 38 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 15. Highs in the mid 30s. Minimum RH
36 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows around 19. Highs in the
lower 50s. Minimum RH 32 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

MOZ034-042-192200-
Monroe MO-Audrain MO-
Including the city of Mexico
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Pcldy        Pcldy        Mclear
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     40           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 40           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      67 (-1)      30 (-14)     43
RH % (24h trend)      27 (+9)      76 (+18)     43
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     E 4-8 G21                 W 11-15 G25
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     S 9-13 G24   W 12-16 G29  W 7-11 G21
Precip Amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    63                        36
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    4450         1500         3450
Transport Wnd (m/s)   SW 11        W 11         W  9
Transport Wnd (mph)   SW 24        W 25         W 20
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     23900        2570         10630
                      Excellent    Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the
lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s.
Minimum RH 38 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows around 15. Highs in the mid 30s. Minimum RH
36 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows around 19. Highs in the
lower 50s. Minimum RH 33 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

ILZ095>098-192200-
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-Calhoun IL-
Including the cities of Quincy, Mount Sterling, and Pittsfield
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Mcldy        Pcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     30           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 30           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      66 (-3)      31 (-12)     45
RH % (24h trend)      43 (+27)     79 (+15)     42
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     E 4-8 G16                 W 12-16 G28
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     S 7-11 G20   SW 9-13 G28  W 8-12 G23
Precip Amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       1
1700ft mixing temp    63                        37
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    3230         490          4020
Transport Wnd (m/s)   S  8         SW  7        W 10
Transport Wnd (mph)   S 18         SW 15        W 22
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     13510        700          14150
                      Good         Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the
lower 40s. Minimum RH 40 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s.
Minimum RH 38 percent. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 16. Highs in the mid 30s.
Minimum RH 36 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows around 19. Highs around
50. Minimum RH 31 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 50s. Minimum RH 40 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

ILZ058>060-099-192200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Jersey IL-
Including the city of Litchfield
113 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud Cover           Mcldy        Pcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type           Tstms        None         None
Chance Precip (%)     60           0            0
Chance of Thunder (%) 60           0            0
Temp (24h trend)      64 (-6)      34 (-12)     46
RH % (24h trend)      48 (+29)     75 (-19)     38
Wind 20ft AM(mph)     SE 4-8 G17                W 14-18 G28
Wind 20ft PM(mph)     S 8-12 G20   SW 9-13 G27  W 10-14 G24
Precip Amount         0.04         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration       3
1700ft mixing temp    66                        39
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl)    2660         750          3610
Transport Wnd (m/s)   S  8         SW  8        W  9
Transport Wnd (mph)   S 17         SW 17        W 21
Vent Rate (m/s-m)     9250         1240         13850
                      Good         Poor         Good

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the
lower 40s. Minimum RH 39 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid
30s. Minimum RH 38 percent. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 17. Highs in the mid 30s.
Minimum RH 35 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Not as cool. Lows around 18. Highs in
the upper 40s. Minimum RH 31 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the
upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$