Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Versions:
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FGUS73 KLSX 131401 CCA
ESFLSX
ILC001-009-013-027-051-149-MOC051-053-071-073-099-111-113-127-
137-151-163-173-183-189-221-DDHHMM-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...Correction
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST. LOUIS MO
755 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
This is the initial statistical output for the 2026 Spring Flood
Outlook for the St. Louis hydrologic service area (HSA). Going
forward, the Spring Flood Outlook will be issued via a Decision
Support Services (DSS) packet, a graphical presentation of the
flood likelihood at National Weather Service (NWS) forecast points
of the St. Louis HSA. In addition, you can access information about
this outlook from another graphical product available from our
website at https://www.weather.gov/lsx/springfloodoutlook.
With the transition to these online graphical tools, this will be
the final text product for our annual spring flood outlook.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/16/2026 - 05/17/2026
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 35 59 10 13 <5 <5
LaGrange 17.0 23.0 25.0 : 28 49 <5 9 <5 <5
Quincy 19.0 22.0 26.0 : 28 54 15 25 <5 9
Lock & Dam 21 18.0 21.0 25.0 : 28 52 14 23 <5 9
Hannibal 17.0 22.0 24.0 : 37 57 9 14 6 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 24.0 : 41 60 20 36 7 10
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 51 70 17 33 <5 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : 52 70 14 26 8 13
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 46 62 21 39 6 9
Grafton 20.0 24.0 29.0 : 30 59 9 17 <5 5
Alton 21.0 24.0 31.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : 49 66 7 15 <5 <5
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 26 51 14 28 <5 5
Herculaneum 26.0 32.0 37.0 : 37 59 15 30 <5 7
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : 52 81 20 34 9 16
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 17.0 20.0 : 45 53 10 12 7 7
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 20.0 : 45 49 11 13 7 7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 10.0 14.0 19.0 : 34 55 13 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 19 28 6 9 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 40 48 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 44 46 13 18 5 5
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 34 55 18 23 <5 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 35 35 20 21 5 5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 33 37 <5 <5 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 46 67 12 12 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 38 51 8 8 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 28 42 6 8 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 34 54 17 21 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 28 41 12 14 6 7
Valley Park 18.0 21.0 27.0 : 36 47 30 31 13 16
Fenton 23.0 29.0 32.0 : 38 50 13 15 11 12
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : 59 79 18 21 6 12
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 71 85 28 39 13 18
Carlyle 16.5 23.0 27.0 : 35 77 <5 <5 <5 <5
New Athens 79.0 82.0 85.0 : 37 51 30 37 25 26
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 19 37 18 28 6 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 43 86 20 44 9 18
:Hinkson Creek
Columbia 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 45 49 20 24 8 9
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 21 40 15 18 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 20 36 11 21 6 9
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 27 61 14 45 5 15
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 25 62 11 23 <5 16
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 49 76 5 11 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 36 79 16 38 5 14
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 29 73 6 15 <5 13
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 28 74 11 16 <5 11
:Black River
Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 : 35 76 10 19 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/16/2026 - 05/17/2026
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 8.4 9.1 11.4 13.4 16.7 20.0 21.8
LaGrange 9.3 10.0 12.3 14.3 17.6 20.9 22.7
Quincy 12.8 12.9 14.6 16.3 19.9 23.6 25.8
Lock & Dam 21 9.1 10.0 12.8 15.2 18.7 22.4 24.8
Hannibal 12.1 12.9 14.2 15.5 18.5 21.6 24.5
Saverton 9.1 10.4 12.5 14.7 18.5 22.2 24.9
Louisiana 12.1 12.2 12.9 15.1 18.6 21.7 24.0
Clarksville 19.6 20.8 22.4 25.4 29.1 32.4 34.5
Winfield 19.5 20.8 22.5 25.5 29.2 32.5 34.3
Grafton 15.5 15.6 16.0 17.4 20.5 23.7 28.1
Alton 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 22.6
Mel Price LD 10.0 10.8 15.3 20.8 23.1 28.2 30.4
St. Louis 10.2 12.9 18.7 26.3 30.5 36.1 38.1
Herculaneum 8.3 11.1 16.8 24.1 28.3 33.7 35.7
Chester 13.4 14.1 20.0 27.1 32.9 39.6 42.1
:North Fabius River
Ewing 4.4 5.8 8.0 10.6 13.2 17.0 21.0
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 4.6 6.1 7.8 11.2 13.7 17.3 21.8
:South Fabius River
Taylor 4.6 5.3 6.3 9.0 10.8 14.6 18.4
:North River
Palmyra 4.8 5.6 7.0 9.2 11.9 14.6 16.8
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 9.1 9.5 13.0 16.2 18.6 20.2 21.3
:Salt River
New London 2.6 3.0 5.7 9.2 10.2 12.5 13.3
:Cuivre River
Troy 9.2 10.9 14.3 19.2 23.9 25.9 29.1
Old Monroe 15.3 15.9 18.7 21.7 25.5 29.0 29.7
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 7.2 8.7 11.3 15.7 19.2 22.1 23.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.2 2.4 5.0 8.9 13.1 16.6 19.6
Sullivan 3.9 4.2 7.0 10.8 14.4 20.9 24.5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 5.1 7.1 11.1 13.4 16.1 20.9 24.8
:Meramec River
Pacific 0.9 3.4 7.3 11.9 15.8 21.5 25.5
:Big River
Byrnesville 5.9 6.7 8.8 12.9 18.1 22.5 25.0
:Meramec River
Eureka 4.9 7.7 10.8 14.4 19.5 27.1 34.3
Valley Park 6.2 8.8 10.5 13.2 22.7 33.0 38.3
Fenton 11.7 14.0 15.8 17.7 25.6 32.8 37.7
Arnold 11.7 14.0 17.8 25.6 31.3 36.2 39.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 10.2 11.7 15.5 21.5 24.2 26.6 28.4
Carlyle 10.4 11.4 13.2 15.7 18.9 21.2 21.7
New Athens 70.0 70.4 71.8 75.1 84.9 89.3 90.0
:La Moine River
Ripley 8.3 8.7 12.0 16.1 20.9 25.7 27.9
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 9.6 11.9 15.0 18.7 23.6 26.0 31.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 4.3 6.3 10.3 11.8 13.2 16.7 23.4
Mari-Osa Campgrou 5.0 10.2 12.0 15.1 19.0 23.0 24.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 5.2 10.1 12.1 16.6 21.3 24.2 28.4
Hermann 7.1 12.6 14.9 18.6 23.9 30.9 33.2
Washington 5.8 10.3 12.4 16.2 20.9 26.9 29.8
St. Charles 14.1 17.4 19.2 22.3 25.9 31.6 34.5
:Black River
Annapolis 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 9.6 14.7 19.1
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/16/2026 - 05/17/2026
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 45.0 44.9 44.8 44.7 40.5 36.7 35.0
Quincy 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.8 40.6 36.8 35.2
Lock & Dam 21 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.8 40.6 36.8 35.2
Hannibal 45.6 45.5 45.4 45.0 40.6 37.1 35.9
Saverton 45.5 45.4 45.3 45.1 40.7 37.2 35.9
Louisiana 52.4 52.2 48.4 46.5 41.4 37.6 36.9
Clarksville 52.4 52.2 48.5 46.5 41.4 37.7 37.0
Winfield 52.4 52.3 48.5 46.7 41.5 37.8 37.0
St. Louis 90.2 89.4 88.2 84.7 78.1 73.2 71.2
Chester 94.7 94.4 91.7 87.8 80.1 75.7 74.7
:North Fabius River
Ewing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:South Fabius River
Taylor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:North River
Palmyra 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Salt River
New London 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old Monroe 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Meramec River
Steelville 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Sullivan 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Meramec River
Pacific 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
:Meramec River
Eureka 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carlyle 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:La Moine River
Ripley 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Osage River
St. Thomas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.1
:Missouri River
St. Charles 6.0 6.0 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.5
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information. To view more data in graphical format online, go to
https://www.weather.gov/lsx/springfloodoutlook .
$$
Fuchs