412
FXUS63 KLSX 070344
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1044 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into Thursday, with
  the best chances (60-80%) across parts of central and southeast
  Missouri on Wednesday afternoon.

- After a brief dry spell Friday into Saturday, a chance (20-40%)
  of showers and isolated thunderstorms will return to the area
  early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

High clouds are beginning to stream into Missouri ahead of MCS
across eastern Oklahoma.  Most of the showers and thunderstorm
associated with this MCS will shift eastward into Arkansas through
this evening leaving debris clouds across our area.  There will be
additional development late tonight into Wednesday morning on the
nose of the low level jet that will bring a chance (20-40%) across
central and southeast Missouri.  This will be occurring at the same
time that the HREF is showing an upper low currently over New Mexico
shifting eastward into the central Plains which will be increasing
ascent over the area.  The best chance (60-80%) for showers and a
few thunderstorms will come on Wednesday afternoon and evening from
the St. Louis metro area and points west and southwest when the low
will move into eastern Kansas at the same time there will modest low
level moisture convergence across the area.

It will not be as cold tonight with more clouds streaming into the
area.  Highs tomorrow will be similar to today`s though a bit
cooler in the south with the chance of rain.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

There is generally good agreement in the cluster analysis that we
will we will stay in a blocking pattern through early next week. The
LREF is showing that upper low over Missouri will sink south into
the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend while an upper ridge
will build over the low establishing a REX block over the central
CONUS into early next week. This will act to push the showers and a
few thunderstorms south of the CWA late in the week as 30-70% of the
LREF members are producing rain over the area on Thursday before dry
weather is expected through Saturday. Then both the determistic
models and the LREF are showing the upper low moving back to the
north which will bring a chance of showers (20-40%) to the area
Sunday into Tuesday.

No significant swing in temperatures is expected with this blocky
pattern as highs are expected to slowly climb through the 70s from
Thursday into Tuesday. There is fairly high confidence in the
temperature forecast as the NBM IQR through early next week is only
4 to 6 degrees.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue through much of
the TAF period at all local terminals. A weather system approaches
the region tomorrow, gradually bringing ceilings down, but they
are expected to remain VFR. This weather system will bring
scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms to the
region near the end of the period, but confidence remains low in
direct impacts to local terminals. If direct impacts are to occur,
at least MVFR visibilities are possible.

Elmore

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX