Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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924
FGUS63 KKRF 261835
ESPLSH
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CST MON NOV 25 2024
********************************************************
********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:S FK SOLOMON R AT WOODSTON KS 1S
WODK1 12.0 16.0 27.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:S FK SOLOMON R AT OSBORNE KS
OSBK1 14.0 20.0 27.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:N FK SOLOMON R AT PORTIS KS
PTIK1 15.0 20.0 25.0 | <5 6 8 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOLOMON R AT BELOIT KS NO.2
BLTK1 20.0 25.0 30.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOLOMON R AT GLASCO KS 1S
GLAK1 22.0 25.0 34.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOLOMON R AT MINNEAPOLIS KS
MPSK1 26.0 30.0 38.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SALT CR AT BARNARD KS
BRNK1 21.0 23.3 24.9 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SALT CR NR AT ADA KS 3ESE
ADAK1 18.0 19.0 24.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOLOMON R AT NILES KS
NLSK1 24.0 28.0 34.0 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5
:SALINE R AT LINCOLN KS 1SE
LINK1 30.0 36.0 38.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SALINE R AT TESCOTT KS
TSCK1 25.0 29.0 32.0 | 8 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT LINDSBORG KS
LNSK1 21.0 29.0 33.9 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT MENTOR KS 4N
MTRK1 20.0 24.0 28.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MULBERRY CR AT SALINA KS 3W
SLNK1 24.0 26.0 27.4 | <5 6 9 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT NEW CAMBRIA KS 1SE
NCMK1 27.0 30.0 33.1 | <5 <5 14 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ABILENE KS
ABIK1 27.0 30.0 33.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MUD CR AT ABILENE KS 1NW
ALEK1 15.0 27.0 33.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ENTERPRISE KS
ENTK1 26.0 27.0 40.0 | <5 <5 17 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK SOLOMON R
WODK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 4.1/ 5.0/ 5.7/
OSBK1 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.8/ 4.4/ 6.0/ 7.3/
:N FK SOLOMON R
PTIK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 6.1/ 5.5/ 8.9/ 9.7/
:SOLOMON R
BLTK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 4.3/ 4.0/ 7.1/ 12.4/
GLAK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 5.3/ 5.0/ 9.0/ 12.2/
MPSK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 5.6/ 8.6/
:SALT CR
BRNK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 6.5/ 5.5/ 7.3/ 8.3/
:SALT CR NR
ADAK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 5.7/ 5.4/ 6.6/ 8.0/
:SOLOMON R
NLSK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.0/ 10.7/ 9.3/ 16.1/ 17.0/
:SALINE R
LINK1 10.3/ 10.3/ 10.3/ 13.9/ 13.5/ 15.4/ 22.5/
TSCK1 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 13.1/ 11.1/ 23.3/ 26.4/
:SMOKY HILL R
LNSK1 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 10.5/ 10.1/ 13.5/ 17.7/
MTRK1 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 9.2/ 7.9/ 13.0/ 15.0/
:MULBERRY CR
SLNK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 8.0/ 7.5/ 12.2/ 22.8/
:SMOKY HILL R
NCMK1 4.7/ 5.1/ 7.0/ 17.2/ 16.6/ 21.4/ 24.2/
ABIK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 4.0/ 13.7/ 13.4/ 16.8/ 19.8/
:MUD CR
ALEK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.9/ 5.5/ 5.3/ 5.8/ 10.9/
:SMOKY HILL R
ENTK1 6.1/ 6.3/ 7.5/ 15.4/ 15.3/ 18.6/ 22.1/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK SOLOMON R
WODK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/
OSBK1 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/
:N FK SOLOMON R
PTIK1 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/
:SOLOMON R
BLTK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/
GLAK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/
MPSK1 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/
:SALT CR
BRNK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/
:SALT CR NR
ADAK1 3.2/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:SOLOMON R
NLSK1 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:SALINE R
LINK1 10.3/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/
TSCK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/
:SMOKY HILL R
LNSK1 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/
MTRK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/
:MULBERRY CR
SLNK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/
:SMOKY HILL R
NCMK1 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/
ABIK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:MUD CR
ALEK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/
:SMOKY HILL R
ENTK1 6.1/ 6.0/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/
.END
$$