934
FGUS63 KKRF 261835
ESPLRP

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CST MON NOV 25 2024

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********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********

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IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025

                            :       CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                            :       OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                            :             AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
             CATEGORICAL    :
          FLOOD STAGES (FT) :      MINOR        MODERATE        MAJOR
LOCATION  MINOR  MOD  MAJOR | HEFS  CS   HS |HEFS  CS   HS |HEFS  CS   HS
--------  ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:REPUBLICAN R AT RIVERTON NE NO.2
RVRN1       9.0  10.5  13.5 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT GUIDE ROCK NE 2S
GUIN1      12.5  15.0  17.0 |  <5   <5    5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT HARDY NE 1SW
HDYN1      11.0  13.5  15.5 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT SCANDIA KS
SNDK1      10.0  13.0  15.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:BUFFALO CR AT JAMESTOWN KS 1N
JMSK1      16.0  19.0  35.0 |  <5   <5    6 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT CONCORDIA KS 1N
CNKK1      15.0  18.0  30.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:ELK CR AT CLYDE KS
CLDK1      14.0  22.0  36.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT CLAY CENTER KS 1S
CYCK1      15.0  21.0  28.0 |  <5   <5    9 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS   = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS   = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT   = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF

:            CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                 VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:REPUBLICAN R
RVRN1       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    2.1/    2.0/    2.2/    2.8/
GUIN1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.6/    2.3/    3.6/    4.8/
HDYN1       1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    2.7/    2.6/    3.0/    3.1/
SNDK1       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    2.0/    1.8/    2.2/    3.5/

:BUFFALO CR
JMSK1       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    7.2/   10.4/

:REPUBLICAN R
CNKK1       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    6.0/    5.4/    6.4/   10.0/

:ELK CR
CLDK1       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.9/    5.8/    6.2/    7.1/

:REPUBLICAN R
CYCK1       6.8/    6.8/    6.8/   10.3/   10.0/   11.9/   14.3/
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF

:      CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:REPUBLICAN R
RVRN1       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/
GUIN1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/
HDYN1       1.1/    1.0/    1.0/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/
SNDK1       0.5/    0.5/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/

:BUFFALO CR
JMSK1       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/

:REPUBLICAN R
CNKK1       4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/

:ELK CR
CLDK1       4.6/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/

:REPUBLICAN R
CYCK1       6.7/    6.6/    6.5/    6.4/    6.4/    6.4/    6.4/
.END

$$