353
FGUS63 KKRF 221448
ESGLRP

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
505 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:REPUBLICAN R AT RIVERTON NE NO.2
RVRN1               9.0  10.5  13.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT GUIDE ROCK NE 2S
GUIN1              12.5  15.0  17.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT HARDY NE 1SW
HDYN1              11.0  13.5  15.5    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT SCANDIA KS
SNDK1              10.0  13.0  15.0     5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BUFFALO CR AT JAMESTOWN KS 1N
JMSK1              16.0  19.0  35.0     5    9   <5    5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT CONCORDIA KS 1N
CNKK1              15.0  18.0  30.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELK CR AT CLYDE KS
CLDK1              14.0  22.0  36.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT CLAY CENTER KS 1S
CYCK1              15.0  21.0  28.0     7   16   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211705/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:REPUBLICAN R
RVRN1       1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.8/    3.9/    4.9
GUIN1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.6/    9.1/   10.2
HDYN1       0.8/    0.8/    0.8/    1.1/    3.2/    5.3/    7.4
SNDK1       0.3/    0.3/    0.3/    0.8/    2.6/    4.2/    8.9

:BUFFALO CR
JMSK1       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    2.1/   10.3/   16.3

:REPUBLICAN R
CNKK1       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    5.0/    6.2/    8.2/   12.8

:ELK CR
CLDK1       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.7/    5.8/    7.1/    7.3

:REPUBLICAN R
CYCK1       6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    7.0/    9.4/   12.3/   17.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211705/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:REPUBLICAN R
RVRN1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5
GUIN1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3
HDYN1       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6
SNDK1       0.1/   -0.0/   -0.1/   -0.2/   -0.2/   -0.3/   -0.3

:BUFFALO CR
JMSK1       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0

:REPUBLICAN R
CNKK1       3.8/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:ELK CR
CLDK1       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5

:REPUBLICAN R
CYCK1       5.9/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$