329
FSUS46 KLOX 042228
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
224 PM PST Tue Feb 04 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 0400 followed by 6-hour increments until 1600.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 1600 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Tue Feb 04 2025 through Mon Feb 10 2025.

&&

                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          0.3    0.2    0.2    lgt   |   0.0   0.0
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  0.3    0.2    0.2    lgt   |   0.0   0.0
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       lgt    0.3    0.4    0.2   |   lgt   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.15-0.35        0.30-0.60
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 20%              60%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1800-0200

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      lgt    0.1    0.2    lgt   |   lgt   0.0
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            lgt    0.2    0.2    lgt   |   lgt   0.0
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    0.2    0.5    0.5    0.2   |   0.2   lgt
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  0.2    0.6    0.6    0.2   |   0.2   lgt
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               0.2    0.5    0.6    0.2   |   0.4   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.15-0.45        0.40-0.60
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 40%              50%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1900-0200

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     lgt    0.1    0.1    0.3   |   0.3   lgt
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    lgt    0.2    0.1    0.4   |   0.4   lgt
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     lgt    0.3    0.4    0.2   |   0.4   lgt
VTUC1:Ventura City                     lgt    0.1    0.3    0.1   |   0.3   lgt
MORC1:Moorpark                         0.0    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   0.1   lgt
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   lgt    lgt    0.1    0.4   |   0.3   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.25        0.15-0.35
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 5%               5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 2100-0500

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               lgt    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.2   lgt
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   0.0    lgt    lgt    0.1   |   0.2   lgt
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      lgt    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.3   lgt
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             0.0    lgt    lgt    0.1   |   0.2   lgt
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.0    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
CQT:Downtown LA                        0.0    0.0    lgt    0.1   |   0.2   lgt
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             lgt    lgt    0.1    0.4   |   0.3   0.1

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.15-0.25        0.20-0.30
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0000-0800

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&

DISCUSSION:

Widespread steady rain will develop from the NW to SE starting this
afternoon. By late evening it will be raining across the entire
area. The highest rain totals and rates will occur over SLO and SBA
Counties, with totals of 0.75 to 1.50 inches common and 1.5 to 3.0
inches over the favored coastal slopes. 3-6" are possible across the
foothills north of Morro Bay. Peak timing will be this afternoon to
Wednesday morning. Peak rates of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour will
be common, with localized rates of 0.50 to 0.75 incher per hour.

For Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches
will be common with 0.75 to 1.5 inches in the favored hills and
mountains. Peak timing will be late toight into Wednesday morning.
Peak rates of 0.10 to 0.25 inches per hour will be common.

Rain will diminish later Wednesday into Thursday, but cannot
discount a shower or two. Storm #2 will bring more uniform rain
totals of 0.25 to 1.00 inches in general, with 1 to 2 inches in the
favored hills and mountains. Peak timing looks to be Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning. There remains a range of outcomes
however so these values may be modified over the next day or two.

Dry conditions should follow later Friday through at least Tuesday
of next week, except for some rain and snow showers Friday Night on
the northern slopes.

$$