358
FSUS46 KLOX 122241
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
231 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 0400 followed by 6-hour increments until 1600.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 1600 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Wed Nov 12 2025 through Tue Nov 18 2025.

&&

                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   lgt   0.5
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   lgt   0.5
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.1

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.30-0.40        0.40-0.60
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 40%              60%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              25%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1300-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.75 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   lgt
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   lgt
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   lgt
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   lgt
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.15        0.05-0.10
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1500-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
VTUC1:Ventura City                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
MORC1:Moorpark                         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.00             0.00
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 0%               0%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 0%               0%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1500-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
CQT:Downtown LA                        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.00             0.00
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 0%               0%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 0%               0%

Peak rates expected to occur between: N/A

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&

DISCUSSION:

A storm system will impact the area Thursday through Sunday, with
peaks Thursday Night and Friday Night through Saturday. Confidence
is low on a lot of the details of this storm, especially for the
Friday Night through Saturday time period. The most likely outcome
is for 2 to 4 inches total being common over much of the area for
Thursday through Sunday, with 3 to 6 inches in the favored hills and
mountains. With the uncertainity on Saturday, there is a plus or
minus 1 to 2 inch range of outcomes. Peak rainfall rates between
0.25 and 0.50 inches per hour will be common, but there is a
potential for rates of 0.5 and 1.0 inches per hour. That potential
exists for the Santa Ynez Range and Santa Lucia Range for Thursday
Night, and almost anywhere on Friday Night through Saturday. There
is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms as well.

Another storm is possible for Monday November 17 and Thursday
November 20. The most likely outcomes for both of those storms is
for light to moderate amounts and impacts.

$$