039
FSUS46 KLOX 121126
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
316 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 1600 followed by 6-hour increments until 0400.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 0400 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Wed Feb 12 2025 through Tue Feb 18 2025.

&&

                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          lgt    lgt    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.6
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  lgt    lgt    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.6
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.2

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.25-0.35        0.25-0.45
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 25%              35%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0200-0500

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            0.1    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    lgt    0.2    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.1
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  0.2    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.1
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               lgt    0.1    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.1

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.10        0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 20%              25%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0300-0600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   0.0   lgt
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
VTUC1:Ventura City                     lgt    0.1    lgt    lgt   |   0.0   lgt
MORC1:Moorpark                         lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   0.0   lgt
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   lgt    0.1    0.1    lgt   |   lgt   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.10        0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0600-1100

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.0    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   lgt
CQT:Downtown LA                        lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   0.0   lgt
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.15        0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0800-1200

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&

DISCUSSION:

A moderate to strong storm with an entrained weak atmospheric river
will bring moderate to heavy rain to the area Thursday and early
Friday with a small precursor system today. A Flash Flood Watch for
ALL recent burn scars is in effect Thursday and early Friday. The
greatest concern for major debris flows exists in and near the
Eaton, Palisades/Franklin, and Bridge burn scars. The Flash Flood
Watch is in effect from 1 pm Thursday through 4 am Friday, except
from 10 am Thursday until midnight Thursday night for the Lake burn
scar in Santa Barbara County.

At least minor flood impacts are likely beyond these areas with
roadway and urban flooding possible. Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3
inches will be common at lower elevations and 3 to 6 inches across
the mountains and foothills with almost twice these totals for
portions of San Luis Obispo county (3 to 5 inches coasts and 6 to 10
inches Santa Lucia mountains).

Snow levels have been revised upwards to 8000 ft where 10 to 20
inches could fall.

$$

Rorke