588
FSUS46 KLOX 192100
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1258 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 0400 followed by 6-hour increments until 1600.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 1600 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Wed Nov 19 2025 through Tue Nov 25 2025.

&&

                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.2   lgt
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.2   lgt
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.1   0.2

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.10        0.01-0.10
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0800-1500

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.1
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.2
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.2
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.2
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.2

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.10        0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0900-1500

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.3
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
VTUC1:Ventura City                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
MORC1:Moorpark                         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.10        0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1400-1700

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
CQT:Downtown LA                        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.2
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.3

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.05-0.10        0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1400-1700

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&

DISCUSSION:

Fairly confident that San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
will have lighter totals (0.25 to 0.50 inches common, except 0.5 to
1.0 inches in some favored mountains) and rates (0.10 to 0.25 inches
per hour). For Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, the most likely
outcome is for moderate amounts (0.5 to 1.0 inches except 1 to 2
inches in favored mountains and hills) and rates (0.20 to 0.33
inches per hour). The convective and dynamic nature of the proximity
of the low brings the potential of double those amounts, especially
in Los Angeles County. Snow levels will be above 6,000 feet for most
of the precipitation, but will drop to as low at 5,000 feet on
Friday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday Night
through Friday. Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches is the most likely
outcome for elevations above 6000 or 6500 feet.

Dry weather will likely follow this weekend through at least most of
next week.

$$