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FSUS46 KLOX 242126
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
112 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 0400 followed by 6-hour increments until 1600.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 1600 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Sun Nov 24 2024 through Sat Nov 30 2024.

&&

                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.5   0.7
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.5   0.7
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.3   0.4

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.30-0.40        0.35-0.50
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 30%              40%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0200-1000

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.2   0.3
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.1   0.2
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.2
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.1
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.10-0.20        0.20-0.30
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0300-1000

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   lgt
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   lgt
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.1
VTUC1:Ventura City                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
MORC1:Moorpark                         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.03        0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0700-1200

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   lgt
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
CQT:Downtown LA                        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.03        0.01-0.05
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5%              <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0500-1200

Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%

&&

DISCUSSION:

A weak atmospheric river is expected to produce periods of moderate
to heavy rain across SLO County Monday afternoon into Tuesday
morning with lighter showers continuing into Wednesday morning.
Additonal rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected in the Santa
Lucias with as much as 5 inches at Rocky Butte. Hourly rain rates
are expected to peak at around a half inch with around a 10 percent
chance of thunderstorms. In other areas of SLO County as well as all
of Santa Barbara County 1-2 inches of additional rain are expected
with peak rain rates around a third of an in per hour.

Much lighter rain expected across Ventura and LA Counties. Up to
around an additional half inch, and mostly inder a quarter inch for
LA County except locally slightly higher amounts in the mountains.

$$