Quantitative Precipitation Statement
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
515
FSUS46 KLOX 161116
QPSLOX
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
304 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 1600 followed by 6-hour increments until 0400.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 0400 on day 1 only.
Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.
The discussion covers the period from: Sun Nov 16 2025 through Sat Nov 22 2025.
&&
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
San Luis Obispo County...
LSRC1:Cambria 0.2 0.1 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 0.3
SMRC1:Santa Margarita 0.2 0.1 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 0.3
NIPC1:Lopez Lake 0.4 0.1 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.20-0.30 0.25-0.45
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 30% 40%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% 10%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 0400-0700
Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%
&& 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
Santa Barbara County...
SIYC1:Santa Maria 0.2 lgt lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero lgt lgt lgt 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam 0.1 lgt lgt lgt | lgt 0.0
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass lgt 0.1 lgt lgt | lgt lgt
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City lgt lgt 0.1 lgt | lgt lgt
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.05-0.15 0.10-0.20
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 15% 20%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 0400-0800
Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%
&& 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
Ventura County...
FGWC1:Fagan Canyon lgt lgt lgt lgt | 0.0 0.0
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon 0.1 lgt 0.1 lgt | lgt 0.0
MTDC1:Matilija Dam lgt lgt 0.1 lgt | lgt lgt
VTUC1:Ventura City lgt lgt lgt lgt | lgt 0.0
MORC1:Moorpark lgt lgt lgt lgt | lgt 0.0
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch lgt lgt lgt lgt | lgt 0.0
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.05-0.10 0.01-0.10
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5% 15%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 0400-0700
Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%
&& 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
Los Angeles County...
WFKC1:West Fork Heliport lgt lgt lgt lgt | lgt lgt
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam lgt 0.0 0.0 lgt | lgt lgt
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam 0.1 lgt lgt lgt | 0.2 lgt
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge lgt lgt lgt lgt | lgt lgt
SAUC1:Saugus lgt 0.0 lgt 0.0 | lgt 0.0
CQT:Downtown LA lgt lgt lgt 0.0 | lgt 0.1
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa lgt lgt lgt lgt | 0.2 lgt
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.05-0.15 0.05-0.10
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 0400-0700
Chance of Thunderstorms: 0%
&&
DISCUSSION:
The last effects of the Fri/Sat storm will be felt today as shower
activity continues in the wrap around flow along the backside of the
departing upper low. Rainfall amonts will be rather variable today
but most areas should pick up another quarter inch of rain. SLO
county may see up to half inch since the flow patter favors that
location. There will be lull in shower activity later this afteroon
and evening. Another storm will bring light to moderate widespread
rain late tonight through Tuesday morning with most areas forecast
to receive .75"-1.5" of additional rainfall with the most rain
falling across the south facing slopes. Yet another storm will bring
additional rain Thursday and/or Friday of next week, but there is
still a wide range of outcomes in terms of rain and impacts for this
system.
$$