Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
560 FNUS86 KLOX 222235 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 335 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ECC029-231645- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 335 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON WINDS... Hot and dry conditions persist through Saturday across the interior due to high pressure over the region. Breezy onshore winds develop each afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph through favored gaps, passes, valleys, and coastlines. The marine layer influence will bring good to moderate overnight humidity recoveries in the lower elevations, but the hills and thermal belts remain mild and dry overnight. Monsoonal moisture from the south continues to present a very low, but non- zero, chance for elevated convection through Saturday. A gradual cooling and moistening trend begins Sunday and extends through next week. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... ...RISK OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Similar hot temperatures are occurring today as compared to yesterday, ranging from 98 to 110 degrees across the interior. With continued weak onshore flow, the hot temperatures will spread into portions of the coast with associated heat impacts. A few degrees of cooling will likely occur across the region over the weekend, but significant heat impacts will likely continue. Minimum humidities away from the immediate coast are generally expected to range between 8 and 20 percent through the weekend, with a slight increase in humidity levels across the higher mountain elevations over the weekend due to the influx of some mid level monsoon moisture. The hot temperatures combined with increasing instability in the atmosphere will result in deeper mixing heights of 12,000 to 18,000 feet across the interior through the weekend, While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally windy conditions, isolated dry lightning strikes and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what we are currently experiencing. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy today through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While isolated lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible through this weekend, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. At this time, it appears that most of the convective activity will be high based through the weekend, with limited rainfall across our region. The higher threats with any thunderstorm activity will be isolated dry lightning strikes as well as strong and erratic downburst/ outflow winds. The best chance of convection (20-40 percent) through this weekend will be focused across the mountains of LA/Ventura counties and Antelope Valley, with around a 5-15 percent chance for all other areas (including coasts/valleys) on Saturday and Sunday. $$ ECC028-231645- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 335 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... ...RISK OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Similar hot temperatures are occurring today as compared to yesterday, ranging from 98 to 110 degrees across the interior. With continued weak onshore flow, the hot temperatures will spread into portions of the coast with associated heat impacts. A few degrees of cooling will likely occur across the region over the weekend, but significant heat impacts will likely continue. Minimum humidities away from the immediate coast are generally expected to range between 8 and 20 percent through the weekend, with a slight increase in humidity levels across the higher mountain elevations over the weekend due to the influx of some mid level monsoon moisture. The hot temperatures combined with increasing instability in the atmosphere will result in deeper mixing heights of 12,000 to 18,000 feet across the interior through the weekend, While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally windy conditions, isolated dry lightning strikes and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what we are currently experiencing. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy today through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While isolated lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible through this weekend, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. At this time, it appears that most of the convective activity will be high based through the weekend, with limited rainfall across our region. The higher threats with any thunderstorm activity will be isolated dry lightning strikes as well as strong and erratic downburst/ outflow winds. The best chance of convection (20-40 percent) through this weekend will be focused across the mountains of LA/Ventura counties and Antelope Valley, with around a 5-15 percent chance for all other areas (including coasts/valleys) on Saturday and Sunday. $$ ECC031-231645- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 335 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... ...RISK OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Similar hot temperatures are occurring today as compared to yesterday, ranging from 98 to 110 degrees across the interior. With continued weak onshore flow, the hot temperatures will spread into portions of the coast with associated heat impacts. A few degrees of cooling will likely occur across the region over the weekend, but significant heat impacts will likely continue. Minimum humidities away from the immediate coast are generally expected to range between 8 and 20 percent through the weekend, with a slight increase in humidity levels across the higher mountain elevations over the weekend due to the influx of some mid level monsoon moisture. The hot temperatures combined with increasing instability in the atmosphere will result in deeper mixing heights of 12,000 to 18,000 feet across the interior through the weekend, While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally windy conditions, isolated dry lightning strikes and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what we are currently experiencing. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy today through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While isolated lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible through this weekend, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. At this time, it appears that most of the convective activity will be high based through the weekend, with limited rainfall across our region. The higher threats with any thunderstorm activity will be isolated dry lightning strikes as well as strong and erratic downburst/ outflow winds. The best chance of convection (20-40 percent) through this weekend will be focused across the mountains of LA/Ventura counties and Antelope Valley, with around a 5-15 percent chance for all other areas (including coasts/valleys) on Saturday and Sunday. $$ ECC024-231645- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 335 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... ...RISK OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Similar hot temperatures are occurring today as compared to yesterday, ranging from 98 to 110 degrees across the interior. With continued weak onshore flow, the hot temperatures will spread into portions of the coast with associated heat impacts. A few degrees of cooling will likely occur across the region over the weekend, but significant heat impacts will likely continue. Minimum humidities away from the immediate coast are generally expected to range between 8 and 20 percent through the weekend, with a slight increase in humidity levels across the higher mountain elevations over the weekend due to the influx of some mid level monsoon moisture. The hot temperatures combined with increasing instability in the atmosphere will result in deeper mixing heights of 12,000 to 18,000 feet across the interior through the weekend, While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally windy conditions, isolated dry lightning strikes and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what we are currently experiencing. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy today through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While isolated lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible through this weekend, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. At this time, it appears that most of the convective activity will be high based through the weekend, with limited rainfall across our region. The higher threats with any thunderstorm activity will be isolated dry lightning strikes as well as strong and erratic downburst/ outflow winds. The best chance of convection (20-40 percent) through this weekend will be focused across the mountains of LA/Ventura counties and Antelope Valley, with around a 5-15 percent chance for all other areas (including coasts/valleys) on Saturday and Sunday. $$ ECC032-231645- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 335 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... ...RISK OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Similar hot temperatures are occurring today as compared to yesterday, ranging from 98 to 110 degrees across the interior. With continued weak onshore flow, the hot temperatures will spread into portions of the coast with associated heat impacts. A few degrees of cooling will likely occur across the region over the weekend, but significant heat impacts will likely continue. Minimum humidities away from the immediate coast are generally expected to range between 8 and 20 percent through the weekend, with a slight increase in humidity levels across the higher mountain elevations over the weekend due to the influx of some mid level monsoon moisture. The hot temperatures combined with increasing instability in the atmosphere will result in deeper mixing heights of 12,000 to 18,000 feet across the interior through the weekend, While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally windy conditions, isolated dry lightning strikes and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what we are currently experiencing. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy today through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While isolated lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible through this weekend, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. At this time, it appears that most of the convective activity will be high based through the weekend, with limited rainfall across our region. The higher threats with any thunderstorm activity will be isolated dry lightning strikes as well as strong and erratic downburst/ outflow winds. The best chance of convection (20-40 percent) through this weekend will be focused across the mountains of LA/Ventura counties and Antelope Valley, with around a 5-15 percent chance for all other areas (including coasts/valleys) on Saturday and Sunday. $$ ECC030-231645- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 335 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... ...RISK OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Similar hot temperatures are occurring today as compared to yesterday, ranging from 98 to 110 degrees across the interior. With continued weak onshore flow, the hot temperatures will spread into portions of the coast with associated heat impacts. A few degrees of cooling will likely occur across the region over the weekend, but significant heat impacts will likely continue. Minimum humidities away from the immediate coast are generally expected to range between 8 and 20 percent through the weekend, with a slight increase in humidity levels across the higher mountain elevations over the weekend due to the influx of some mid level monsoon moisture. The hot temperatures combined with increasing instability in the atmosphere will result in deeper mixing heights of 12,000 to 18,000 feet across the interior through the weekend, While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally windy conditions, isolated dry lightning strikes and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what we are currently experiencing. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy today through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While isolated lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible through this weekend, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. At this time, it appears that most of the convective activity will be high based through the weekend, with limited rainfall across our region. The higher threats with any thunderstorm activity will be isolated dry lightning strikes as well as strong and erratic downburst/ outflow winds. The best chance of convection (20-40 percent) through this weekend will be focused across the mountains of LA/Ventura counties and Antelope Valley, with around a 5-15 percent chance for all other areas (including coasts/valleys) on Saturday and Sunday. $$