Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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621
FNUS86 KLOX 171645
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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
945 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

ECC029-181045-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
945 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...Discussion from Monterey...

Persistent marine layer will bring seasonably cool temperatures and
moderate to excellent humidity to the district  on Thursday. A
gradual warming and drying trend will develop on  Friday and linger
through the weekend. Elevated fire weather  concerns remain over the
higher terrain where moderate to poor  humidity recovery remains
with mild temperatures.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOCUSED ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...

A deep marine layer through at least today will maintain below
normal risk for large fire for coasts, coastal valleys, extending
into  some interior valleys (mainly San Luis Obispo County). The
marine layer will likely shrink especially north of Point Conception
through the weekend, leading to warming and drying trends focused
across interior  valleys of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties.

There is a 15-25 percent chance of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms  peaking Thursday through Friday including the
overnight hours focused across the Los Angeles County, spreading
west into at least Ventura County  at times as well. The greatest
threat is over the mountains, but there is a 5-15 percent chance of
occuring in the coastal valleys to coast  especially in the early
morning hours Friday. The threat of  thunderstorms may linger in the
weekend, especially across eastern Los  Angeles County. New fire
starts from dry lighting, damaging winds, and  localized flooding
are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms.

There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine
layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming
trends near the coast.


$$

ECC028-181045-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
945 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOCUSED ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...

A deep marine layer through at least today will maintain below
normal risk for large fire for coasts, coastal valleys, extending
into  some interior valleys (mainly San Luis Obispo County). The
marine layer will likely shrink especially north of Point Conception
through the weekend, leading to warming and drying trends focused
across interior  valleys of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties.

There is a 15-25 percent chance of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms  peaking Thursday through Friday including the
overnight hours focused across the Los Angeles County, spreading
west into at least Ventura County  at times as well. The greatest
threat is over the mountains, but there is a 5-15 percent chance of
occuring in the coastal valleys to coast  especially in the early
morning hours Friday. The threat of  thunderstorms may linger in the
weekend, especially across eastern Los  Angeles County. New fire
starts from dry lighting, damaging winds, and  localized flooding
are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms.

There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine
layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming
trends near the coast.


$$

ECC031-181045-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
945 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOCUSED ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...

A deep marine layer through at least today will maintain below
normal risk for large fire for coasts, coastal valleys, extending
into  some interior valleys (mainly San Luis Obispo County). The
marine layer will likely shrink especially north of Point Conception
through the weekend, leading to warming and drying trends focused
across interior  valleys of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties.

There is a 15-25 percent chance of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms  peaking Thursday through Friday including the
overnight hours focused across the Los Angeles County, spreading
west into at least Ventura County  at times as well. The greatest
threat is over the mountains, but there is a 5-15 percent chance of
occuring in the coastal valleys to coast  especially in the early
morning hours Friday. The threat of  thunderstorms may linger in the
weekend, especially across eastern Los  Angeles County. New fire
starts from dry lighting, damaging winds, and  localized flooding
are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms.

There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine
layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming
trends near the coast.


$$

ECC024-181045-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
945 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOCUSED ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...

A deep marine layer through at least today will maintain below
normal risk for large fire for coasts, coastal valleys, extending
into  some interior valleys (mainly San Luis Obispo County). The
marine layer will likely shrink especially north of Point Conception
through the weekend, leading to warming and drying trends focused
across interior  valleys of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties.

There is a 15-25 percent chance of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms  peaking Thursday through Friday including the
overnight hours focused across the Los Angeles County, spreading
west into at least Ventura County  at times as well. The greatest
threat is over the mountains, but there is a 5-15 percent chance of
occuring in the coastal valleys to coast  especially in the early
morning hours Friday. The threat of  thunderstorms may linger in the
weekend, especially across eastern Los  Angeles County. New fire
starts from dry lighting, damaging winds, and  localized flooding
are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms.

There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine
layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming
trends near the coast.


$$

ECC032-181045-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
945 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOCUSED ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...

A deep marine layer through at least today will maintain below
normal risk for large fire for coasts, coastal valleys, extending
into  some interior valleys (mainly San Luis Obispo County). The
marine layer will likely shrink especially north of Point Conception
through the weekend, leading to warming and drying trends focused
across interior  valleys of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties.

There is a 15-25 percent chance of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms  peaking Thursday through Friday including the
overnight hours focused across the Los Angeles County, spreading
west into at least Ventura County  at times as well. The greatest
threat is over the mountains, but there is a 5-15 percent chance of
occuring in the coastal valleys to coast  especially in the early
morning hours Friday. The threat of  thunderstorms may linger in the
weekend, especially across eastern Los  Angeles County. New fire
starts from dry lighting, damaging winds, and  localized flooding
are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms.

There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine
layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming
trends near the coast.


$$

ECC030-181045-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
945 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOCUSED ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...

A deep marine layer through at least today will maintain below
normal risk for large fire for coasts, coastal valleys, extending
into  some interior valleys (mainly San Luis Obispo County). The
marine layer will likely shrink especially north of Point Conception
through the weekend, leading to warming and drying trends focused
across interior  valleys of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties.

There is a 15-25 percent chance of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms  peaking Thursday through Friday including the
overnight hours focused across the Los Angeles County, spreading
west into at least Ventura County  at times as well. The greatest
threat is over the mountains, but there is a 5-15 percent chance of
occuring in the coastal valleys to coast  especially in the early
morning hours Friday. The threat of  thunderstorms may linger in the
weekend, especially across eastern Los  Angeles County. New fire
starts from dry lighting, damaging winds, and  localized flooding
are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms.

There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine
layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming
trends near the coast.


$$