Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
365 FNUS86 KLOX 172238 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 338 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ECC029-181645- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 338 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... Temperatures remain cooler through Monday before an upper level ridge builds over the West Coast. This will result in a gradual warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with the hottest temperatures (upper 90s to low 100s) on Thursday and Friday. Minimal overnight cooling is expected Thursday and Friday across the higher elevations where low temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight recoveries will stay fair to good for areas within the marine layer but for areas above it (approx. 2000 ft) overnight recoveries will remain poor. Dry daytime conditions will persist through the entire week with poor humidity retention across the interior. The driest conditions will be in the interior Central Coast where daytime humidity minimums will drop into the low teens. While Thursday and Friday look to be the peak, conditions may be slow to improve as onshore flow looks to only slightly increase into the weekend. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior on Monday and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, but could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Monday evening and Tuesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is becoming more likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts could potentially spread to inland portions of the coastal plain. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the valleys, mountains. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid growth and extreme fire behavior. The highest risk areas will be the interior mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. The Fire Weather Watch area covers portions of the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which have been a climatologically notorious area for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy by Friday and Saturday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC028-181645- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 338 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior on Monday and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, but could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Monday evening and Tuesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is becoming more likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts could potentially spread to inland portions of the coastal plain. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the valleys, mountains. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid growth and extreme fire behavior. The highest risk areas will be the interior mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. The Fire Weather Watch area covers portions of the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which have been a climatologically notorious area for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy by Friday and Saturday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC031-181645- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 338 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior on Monday and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, but could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Monday evening and Tuesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is becoming more likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts could potentially spread to inland portions of the coastal plain. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the valleys, mountains. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid growth and extreme fire behavior. The highest risk areas will be the interior mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. The Fire Weather Watch area covers portions of the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which have been a climatologically notorious area for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy by Friday and Saturday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC024-181645- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 338 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior on Monday and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, but could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Monday evening and Tuesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is becoming more likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts could potentially spread to inland portions of the coastal plain. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the valleys, mountains. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid growth and extreme fire behavior. The highest risk areas will be the interior mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. The Fire Weather Watch area covers portions of the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which have been a climatologically notorious area for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy by Friday and Saturday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC032-181645- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 338 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior on Monday and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, but could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Monday evening and Tuesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is becoming more likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts could potentially spread to inland portions of the coastal plain. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the valleys, mountains. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid growth and extreme fire behavior. The highest risk areas will be the interior mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. The Fire Weather Watch area covers portions of the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which have been a climatologically notorious area for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy by Friday and Saturday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC030-181645- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 338 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior on Monday and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, but could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Monday evening and Tuesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is becoming more likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts could potentially spread to inland portions of the coastal plain. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the valleys, mountains. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid growth and extreme fire behavior. The highest risk areas will be the interior mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. The Fire Weather Watch area covers portions of the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which have been a climatologically notorious area for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy by Friday and Saturday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$