Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
928 FNUS86 KLOX 182310 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 410 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ECC029-191715- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 410 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... A warming drying trend has begun over the service area. This will continue through the balance of week, peaking Thursday and Friday with inland temps potentially eclipsing 100. Minimum temps in the mountains will struggle to drop into the 60s by end of week. The marine layer will be compressed and held to the immediate coast. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior today and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, it could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across away from the immediate coast. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and explosive fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect. The Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC028-191715- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 410 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior today and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, it could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across away from the immediate coast. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and explosive fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect. The Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC031-191715- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 410 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior today and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, it could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across away from the immediate coast. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and explosive fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect. The Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC024-191715- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 410 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior today and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, it could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across away from the immediate coast. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and explosive fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect. The Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC032-191715- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 410 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior today and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, it could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across away from the immediate coast. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and explosive fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect. The Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$ ECC030-191715- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 410 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... There will be gradual warming and drying across the interior today and Tuesday as upper level high pressure begins to expand westward. There will be gusty Sundowner winds the next few evenings, mainly focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common each evening. While humidity levels will be elevated this evening, it could lower into the 20 to 40 percent range on Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, thereby increasing the fire weather concerns for southwest Santa Barbara county. A long duration heat wave is likely from Wednesday through Sunday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast, will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions across away from the immediate coast. During the peak of the heatwave, which will likely be Thursday through Saturday, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the hot temperatures, low humidities, increased instability, locally breezy conditions (mainly across mountains, foothills, and canyons), and critically dry fuels will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and explosive fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect. The Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related explosive fire behavior. $$